First off, the grain rush as so to speak depends upon what is left in storage from last crop, and how big the crop is this year. Also figure in what the demand is and your geographic location. Places like West Iowa, Nebraska, and further west tend to use processor / export markets to Seattle/ Portland. East of there, we tend to send export to the Gulf. No producer, unless he has a contract on his grain, will sell it unless the market is right, and he has storage. Right now, the market is right.
And one other factor figures in, Ethanol.
The 2006 export season has been quite long. Starting in July, the export market to the Gulf has been steady. In fact, it has been many years since grain hoppers have been stored idle on the Branch lines, and UP added over 2000 new hoppers in 2005/2006. There were periods in July where customers had to wait for trains they ordered. That was short lived. As of now, every active elevator on our branch has a loaded train waiting, and some have empties on the way.
UP has used different tactics on unit train sizes. They do not refuse single car customers. However the rates for under 75 cars is high as compared to 100 car units. Yet we still have specialty corn marketers who take singles all year round. Gone are the days when elevators could "combo" to make a unit. Instead, they have built bigger facilities, or become storage for the larger operations.
Ethnaol has made an impact upon grain marketing. We serve a market that has five plants, and two more under construction. This takes whole grain from the market, but in it's place a finished product. Ethanol is moved under a higher rate than corn, while the byproduct; DDGs does not. However the result is, an overall increase in revenues from Ethanol versus whole grain. Ethanol plants also use private cars, which eliminate the headache of car allocation (that is left to Ethanol marketing companies). (Side bar: for the first time in four years, a plant ran out of empty tanks for loading. This is quite unusual since they are under the control of the Marketers, who have a huge fleet to cover their plants However, one Marketer will not share his fleet with another.) And unlike whole grain units, Ethanol plants do "combo" to make a 75 car train for a single destination. Yet you will find there is still a lot of singles out there, and I suspect there always will be due to so many smaller destinations. Our district loads four or five units a week, three for Sewaren, NJ, and at least one for Ft. Worth, Tx. The third location, Albany, NY is served by other originating lines as well as UP, but I see a lot of singles heading that way.
Still there are customers who require whole grain for food and animal feed (and cannot use DDGs). For those, the unit trains will remain. And with a trend starting here, the corn plantings may increase to meet demand breaking the tradition of crop rotation. What impact it will have on beans I don't know, and I am sure no one else will either til spring when the rows are planted.