CSX Acquisition of Pan Am Railways

CSX is definitely going to want to maintain access to SJ and the entire Irving empire. Remember, CN moves a good sized daily manifest out of SJ as does CP from its' connections with Irving at Brownville Jct. Pan Am already handles significant traffic from Keag and there will be plenty of low hanging fruit that CSX will be able to capture with single line service and pricing into the states, where much of that traffic is destined or originates from. Go onto google maps and take a look at how much tankcar traffic there is in CN's Island yard (actually appears as two end to end yards) at SJ and it's easy to see why CSX would be so high on Irving traffic.

Absolutely Irving traffic is eyed by CSX, including the amount of Irving traffic I see plying down I95 every-day. That's the stuff CSX can do in a single line haul much more economically and efficiently. I am still not so sure whether in the long term that traffic will be delivered by Irving to them at Keag or somewhere down the line like Waterville.

Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 9:10 am

johnpbarlow wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 8:12 am So, based on PofNY/NJ data, if rail lifts = ~10% of TEUs then Port of Saint John could grow by 2028 to 33,000 annual rail lifts or 90 rail lifts (ie, containers) per day or 45 double stack well cars/day (or a single 2 mile long stack train every 3 days). That's not a lot of traffic for 1 RR let alone 2 if CSX somehow finagles its way into the mix.

Calling Mr. Cowford; Calling Mr. Cowford, come in please.

While of course I defer to the gentleman noted, a TEU comprises one 20ft Container. Therefore, if such be the case, a "double stack" car represents handling FOUR TEU's. This simply reduces by half the potential Saint John rail volume Mr. Barlow notes.

Mr. Norman, I would argue that you cannot use NYNJ rail traffic share as a gauge for Saint John. NYNJ is the US's largest consumer market; the majority of the imports coming through the port are destined for local/nearby points. Any Saint John port expansion would theoretically bring with it an inordinate rail share, given that consumption markets (e.g., Montreal and Toronto) lend themselves to a rail haul.

A better port for comparison is Halifax. The port is established and handles ~600K TEUs annually, generating one (maybe two in winter) train start(s)/day, I believe.

PS - in this age of PSR, intermodal doesn't necessarily have to run in unit service; it can run in a block on another type of train.

Mr. Cowford, with your knowledge of maritime shipping, I certainly defer to you; and I'm certain so will Mr. Barlow.

"I figured" that rail commands much less of the PANYNJ traffic than it does, and potentially can, at other East Coast ports, for the reasons you note, as well as the barriers that God put in place there, and not likely to be succumbed anytime soon by Man. If you're going to fight for twenty five years plus over additional publicly funded, badly needed passenger rail tunnels, I wish the private sector "luck".

Now more to point, I find it difficult to accept that Chessie does not have developing traffic from the underused Atlantic Coast ports (also surprised that Topper "bolted" and made for the stable as quick as he did) in mind. Somehow, I don't think Mr. Sweep will miss observing the Irving traffic moving along the 95. So far as tides go, lest we forget, as I learned while a Fairfield Navy Cadet, there are two roundly two hour periods per day with essentially slack water, as "the action" occurs during the second through fifth hours of a six hour tidal cycle. Perhaps, the "promoters" for Saint John can convince the maritime companies that "with our efficient stevedoring, we can have you ready to sail during the slack water periods".

Finally, it is interesting to learn that CN's circuitous route does not hinder their solicitation of traffic at Saint John, and that with such, those maritime companies looking for competitive rail will be satisfied.

In regards to NS, look at what is going on with the rest of their system. Multiple folks on here made it very clear for months leading up to the announcement that Norfolk Southern was not interested in acquiring Pan Am and presented supporting evidence towards that. 5 years ago with Moorman in charge, perhaps, but not now. I don't even think they would purchase the D&H South again if given the chance today.

As I think of mentioned before, lots of shipping moves through Saint John on a daily basis including huge, 1000 foot, crude oil tankers. Check out marinetraffic or a similar website that tracks shipping in real time. At Saint John, there is a ferry service, lots of bulk carriers servicing the potash terminal, numerous chemical tankers shipping refined product from the refinery, the mentioned crude tankers, and a cycle of container ships serving ports from Newfoundland to the Caribbean. The tides do not seem to be an insurmountable barrier

I don't recall anyone stating that the tides were an insurmountable barrier, no more so than a 3% grade is on a busy freight main line, but it certainly isn't an ideal situation. Yes, there are plenty of ships that use Saint John, but keep in mind that the Irving Refinery, the Potash terminal, etc don't have much of a choice since that's where they're located. That isn't the case for all the big shipping lines that have multiple other East coast options.

As was said here before by others when Timmy put the place up for sale CSX moved on it because I think there first reason was that they wanted to protect the Maine traffic that they've always had direct access to and not want to lose it to a Canadian company through their shortline proxies. Having a direct connection to the Irving railroads and their "forest products of Maine" is another reason to go for the purchase whether it be Keag or Waterville (if they sell W-K to Irving). I know its not DS cleared from Portland to Ayer but an expanded ramp at Waterville could make Intermodal a going operation. I would think that they could tap into the large volume of trucks that travel I's 290, 495, and 95 to and from Maine. I like others believe Maritime container traffic doesn't plays into their strategy.

As far as NS goes to bad Moorman was not still in charge and that the vulture investors where not around.

Thinking out loud, I sort of wish it had been CN rather than CSX. I always thought they were the most fascinating prospect of all the names that were floated. CN could've done some very interesting things with this property, more so than CSX in my humble opinion... particularly if CN had also opted to either buy back the ex-GT/SLR line from Montreal to Auburn and/or worked out a trackage rights agreement with GWI.

While I don't think Intermodal is a huge priority for CSX in terms of this acquisition, I do think that the likelihood of a domestic terminal at Waterville or Portland is a hundred times more likely than a service in conjunction with the port of SJ.

J.D. Lang wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:27 pm As was said here before by others when Timmy put the place up for sale CSX moved on it because I think there first reason was that they wanted to protect the Maine traffic that they've always had direct access to and not want to lose it to a Canadian company through their shortline proxies. Having a direct connection to the Irving railroads and their "forest products of Maine" is another reason to go for the purchase whether it be Keag or Waterville (if they sell W-K to Irving). I know its not DS cleared from Portland to Ayer but an expanded ramp at Waterville could make Intermodal a going operation. I would think that they could tap into the large volume of trucks that travel I's 290, 495, and 95 to and from Maine. I like others believe Maritime container traffic doesn't plays into their strategy.

Bingo, that's it in a nutshell.

J.D. Lang wrote:... I know its not DS cleared from Portland to Ayer but an expanded ramp at Waterville could make Intermodal a going operation. I would think that they could tap into the large volume of trucks that travel I's 290, 495, and 95 to and from Maine. I like others believe Maritime container traffic doesn't plays into their strategy.

Even casual viewing of the Palmer webcam shows lots of single-high tables and wells both EB and WB. CSXT might like DS, but they probably like expanded business even more.

MEC407 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:51 pm Thinking out loud, I sort of wish it had been CN rather than CSX. I always thought they were the most fascinating prospect of all the names that were floated. CN could've done some very interesting things with this property, more so than CSX in my humble opinion... particularly if CN had also opted to either buy back the ex-GT/SLR line from Montreal to Auburn and/or worked out a trackage rights agreement with GWI.

While CN might have been more "interesting", I do think the traffic patterns fit into the CSX system better and they will be able to grow the traffic base further than CN. All one has to do is look as the destination or origin of the cars entering or leaving the system. Unless the entire customer base flips where they are sourcing materials or sending their finished product, CSX is a better fit.

Acquiring the SLR would certainly have to be a prerequisite for CN if they were to buy it up. It wouldn't work without it.

Cosakita18 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 5:05 pm

roberttosh wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 4:08 pm That's what is driving this deal, not the port of Portland.

The port of Portland probably isn't significant to CSX, but I know for a fact that the folks at Eimskip are very interested in working with CSX. It's been discussed elsewhere in this thread, but Eimskip has been trying to coordinate rail movements to and from Portland for years now, and PAR has been unable or unwilling to play ball. Eimskip moves a not insignificant amount of rail volume from Halifax on CN right now, and a lot of that could easily be moved through Portland if CSX is willing to work with them. Eimskip is also very eager to develop better onward connections south and inland from Portland, either by short-sea feeder services or by rail.

You have no idea how wrong you are in regards to Pan Am and Eimskip exploring intermodal options out of Portland. The issue isn't Pan Am, its that The Cat and The Horse have generally protected their existing Europe to Midwest traffic via the Port of NY/NJ. That may change post sale, or it may not. Too early to tell.

The Eimskip and Pan Am intermodal people are well acquainted with each other.

I guess being moot in more way than one I can tell you everytime I went to the port and ask how the rail was coming along the answer was the same — “Pan Am is hard to work with”