Ridgefielder wrote:Noel Weaver wrote:Most likely the track and ROW will continue to deteriorate and decay until it reaches a point where not even an emergency move of equipment will be possible.
Noel Weaver
Only way that *doesn't* happen is if the Housy goes completely belly-up and gets acquired by (or conveyed by the State to) P&W. I could see P&W bringing the line between Derby Jct. and Danbury back into service in order to avoid having to service Danbury/Bethel via the Danbury Branch and a reverse move at South Norwalk-- and maybe moving their interchange point for some Connecticut traffic from Worcester to Pittsfield.
I doubt the Berkshire is going to anyone except a plucky shortline if the day comes when HRCC finally gets euthanized. The business has atrophied so much it'll take a plucky CNZR-like operation that can make money on the smallest carloads to charm some business back. Why would a P&W want to take on that task? If the plucky shortline is successful at getting a healthy baseline back...buy 'em. That's the better value proposition for a P&W or G&W conglomerate than doing it themselves.
That said, there's no question P&W wants the Maybrook to Danbury. They made that abundantly clear in the whole adverse-abandonment standoff that they'll use legal muscle to keep HRCC from screwing them over on their preferred overhead route. Since that's on an existing profitable run for them they also wouldn't mind getting local control. It was HRCC's recklessness that screwed the pooch on that Newtown transload, so it's not like there isn't a potential customer or two that P&W can tack onto this profitable Danbury run if they're using the line anyway for overheads. Berkshire's different, though...that's a loss leader without a years of elbow grease.
Again, nothing grand here. CDOT has to look for a buy-low opportunity to secure public control of the Maybrook, which I'm sure it's looking for (and I'm sure HRCC is still asking too much). It needs to get to baseline Class 1 state-of-repair to Danbury for P&W to feel secure. Think Armory repair money, not Willimantic Branch...it's negligible in the grand scheme. And the goal is preservation of an existing profitable run and maybe P&W picking up a gimme customers that HRCC spat all over...not chasing ghost business that no longer exist. And all they'll want to do to the state line is keep it operable for dire emergencies with MNRR being able to dispatch their own moves instead of needing the help or an unreliable 3rd party. That's it. No overthinking, just security.
And they quite badly want to buy the last private-owned stretch of the Berkshire to New Milford as a commuter rail hold since the recent Danbury Branch study pegs the New Milford extension as possibly the highest-upside new commuter service to pursue after NHHS, since US 7 congestion is slowly choking that corridor to death. They already own to the state line, and contrary to Massachusetts Gov. Patrick's kool-aid drinking about major passenger service there...CDOT does not share similar enthusiasm. All they want is for HRCC to go away, that plucky low-margin shortline to take its place and backstop the decay, and maybe some excursion service a la Berkshire Scenic to do something useful in pretty country. But that's it. Preservation and clean bill of health, not strategic expansion beyond the NM commuter rail bona fides.
You have to read that context into the State Rail Plan. The eye-popping investment figures itemized for Housy were supplied by Housy, just like all the other freight carriers supplied theirs. Of course it's unranked in CDOT's eyes. And of course the bills for the P&W and NECR mains are going to dwarf virtually every other potential freight project combined with possible exception of Springfield Line load capacity to Hartford benefitting 3 carriers at once.