Are Amtrak's super-high fares sustainable?

As for empty seats on the trains, unless one travels regularly at various times, it doesn't become apparent that train loading factor varies due to time of day, day of week, and seasonally. On the NEC, my experience has been that NYP to/from PHL is almost always a full or nearly so train. Train load factors decreases beyond those cities. Riding NHV->BOS, for example, there will almost always be perhaps 10-20% unfilled seats, except during the holidays. For what it's worth, I try to travel the NEC on Tue-Thur, as Mondays and Fridays are always busy days.

As is commonly known, Amtrak uses a 'demand' based pricing schedule. Simply put, the biggest discounts are the furthest in the future. No discounts for book & ride same day travel. Being signed up to receive various promotional email from both Amtrak and Amtrak Guest Rewards, perhaps monthly I get an email promoting 'book 2 weeks in advance and save'. The 'Saver' ticket price column goes blank when the 2 weeks expires or x percentage of seats have been sold. I also get promotional emails such as 'Fares as low as $23 for Northeast Regional Trains'...a variant of the 2 weeks advance promotion. Every now and then, they have 'bargain basement' sales for BOS-PRV-STM-NYP-PHL-WAS combinations as well. Oh...there's no discounting Business Class tickets from what I can tell. I've also discovered that the free upgrade coupons for reaching AGR Select tier status require payment of the full fare, not 'Saver' or even senior discount fare. Bah Humbug!

Amtraks' pricing schedule follows airline practice...as departure day approaches, prices skyrocket! I found that out the hard way when I had to get to Chattanooga TN from Springfield MA due to a family emergency. I booked round trip to Atlanta on the NEC and Crescent with roomette (+ shuttle van to/from CHA) for the next day for less than one-way pricing to Atlanta or Chattanooga with with multiple plane changes on a round about route (best price at the time). I even rode the Atlanta subway to the airport to get the van.

As an AGR member, now that earning points is based solely on dollars spent rather than the 100 point minimum, the slightly higher prices for less than 2 weeks advance booking increases the number of tier points as well as bonus points such as double days, tier-level bonus points and other promotions in addition to those from using their credit card. I'm closing in on Select Plus status for the first time ever, so I have no complaints.

$183 was a one-way airfare to Europe maybe 10 years ago, but not now.

Amtrak ridership is holding steady in the Northeast, so its fares will continue. Airlines have cut back, particularly from NYC to Boston, so higher-end competition is shrinking.

Amtrak has plenty of sales, inexpensive advance-purchase tickets, etc., so $183 is certainly not the lowest cost you can get.

Why does demand pricing require two weak advance purchase? I'd think that demand pricing would be based on demand not time of purchase. The two week advance is decidedly out of touch with how people actually travel along the corridor which is part of why amtrak is an embarrassingly low proportion of nec travel. The comparisons to airlines are simply a tactic to divert attention away from this. People don't travel baltimore ny, Philly NY. The two week advance purchase makes sense if you're running a one a day train but terrible for day trips. As long as amtrak is run this way people will be trying to eliminate 60 mass from corridor decision making periodicially

Yeah, it makes sense to say, OK, if you want to use the premium product (i.e. Acela), please purchase tickets in advance to get a good fare.

But, to be frank, for the "Regional" train -- a 40-year old train with doors that get stuck open in the winter and fill with snow -- to cost about $150 for travel between NY and DC, when purchased just a few days in advance, is absolutely insane. A Regional train should be a workhorse train with the goal of moving people within a region.

Suburban Station wrote:Why does demand pricing require two weak advance purchase? I'd think that demand pricing would be based on demand not time of purchase. The two week advance is decidedly out of touch with how people actually travel along the corridor which is part of why amtrak is an embarrassingly low proportion of nec travel. The comparisons to airlines are simply a tactic to divert attention away from this. People don't travel baltimore ny, Philly NY. The two week advance purchase makes sense if you're running a one a day train but terrible for day trips. As long as amtrak is run this way people will be trying to eliminate 60 mass from corridor decision making periodicially

I've seen last-minute tickets to be the same price as the 2-week advance prices. Perhaps discount tickets are more available 2 weeks out, and some trains have a mandatory 2-week deadline for buying the cheapest tickets, but many do not.

I travel between NY and PHL pretty often for work and to fly out of the Philadelphia airport.

ajl1239 wrote:Yeah, it makes sense to say, OK, if you want to use the premium product (i.e. Acela), please purchase tickets in advance to get a good fare.

But, to be frank, for the "Regional" train -- a 40-year old train with doors that get stuck open in the winter and fill with snow -- to cost about $150 for travel between NY and DC, when purchased just a few days in advance, is absolutely insane. A Regional train should be a workhorse train with the goal of moving people within a region.

A Regional train is a workhorse train with a goal of moving people within a region. It isn't free, though, and Amtrak charges what the market will bear-and Amtrak has to maximize profits where it can, due to its paltry funding. Blame Obama and Congress for not funding it enough.

ajl1239 wrote:Yeah, it makes sense to say, OK, if you want to use the premium product (i.e. Acela), please purchase tickets in advance to get a good fare.

But, to be frank, for the "Regional" train -- a 40-year old train with doors that get stuck open in the winter and fill with snow -- to cost about $150 for travel between NY and DC, when purchased just a few days in advance, is absolutely insane. A Regional train should be a workhorse train with the goal of moving people within a region.

By way of comparison, the IRS, an organization not known for its generosity, for 2016 estimates the cost of operating an automobile as 54 cents per mile. So to drive, with the inherent fatigue, stress, higher risk and no chance to read or do something productive, the 236 miles from DC to NY City, the IRS allowed cost is $127 dollars. That's only $23 less than the $150 Amtrak fare. From that perspective, the train is not overpriced. Factor in Amtrak discount and reward programs and the fare for many can be even less.

The IRS standard mileage rate for business is a combination of fixed costs, like interest, insurance, and depreciation; and variable costs like gas, oil, tires, and other maintenance. The IRS makes an assumption of average miles driven to convert the annual fixed costs to a per-mile cost, then adds the variable costs to get the mileage rate. For business deductions, the IRS permits deduction of a portion of the ownership costs of the car.

If you already own a car, the incremental cost or savings of taking or not taking a trip is only the rated to the variable costs - the added costs you will actually incur if you take the trip like gas, oil and the like. Interest, insurance, depreciation and other annual fixed costs do not change just because you took an extra trip during the year. Applying the IRS standard business mileage rate mileage of a trip and saying that is the cost to take the trip is not correct.

The IRS also publishes a rate to be used travel for medical or moving cost deductions. As stated by the IRS, the medical and moving rate only includes variable costs. That is the rate that should be used to assess the cost of a taking a trip. The medical and business rate for 2016 is 19 cents per mile. For a 250 mile trip, the IRS estimates that the incremental cost of taking that trip (over and above the costs to own the car) is $47.50. Put two or more people in the car, and the cost per person is half that, or lower.

Unless you are going to buy a car just for the purpose of taking a trip, the variable cost standard mileage rate - 19 cents per mile - is the appropriate rate to use to determine the auto-related cost of the trip.

IRS 2015 Standard Mileage Rates

That's exactly it prr60, the substitute trip is not 127 plus tolls and for each passenger up to the cars maximum the trip declines in total price. Amtrak prices rapidly escalate to the stratosphere even if the expense of adding additional seats is relatively small. I do not buy that amtrak maximizes profit. I suspect amtrak management compares themselves only you the air market (a poor comparison) and thinks they have greater pricing power than they do...meanwhile the total trip market is never a thought in their mind.

On the Springfield Line Amtrak has pretty much priced themselves out of the market never mind just having 3 trains a day (plus 3 substitute buses) on weekdays each way due to the track reconstruction project.
Fares for June 28 Springfield to New York:
Peter Pan Bus - $22-26.
Amtrak to New York Penn Station - $35-93.
Amtrak to New Haven, then Metro-North to NY Grand Central - $33.50-39.00
When the Hartford Line commuter trains begin c. Jan. 2018 a combination Hartford Line / Metro North fare should be competitive with buses.

Ok, ok.

Yes, compared to the IRS' generous mileage guidelines, Amtrak seems a "decent deal."

But, do IRS guidelines account for the cost to the environment -- climate change -- of driving a fuel-belching car up and down a gridlocked highway? The cost of sprawl associated with those giant highways?

Rail travel should be subsidized, because those who choose rail travel over driving are sacrificing some "freedom" (i.e. go wherever you want) in order to limit carbon and behave in a sustainable manner.

We shouldn't be defending Amtrak's insane fares -- they are a symptom of a government that does not understand that rail travel should be subsidized over driving.

The IRS Standard Mileage Rates for Medical ($.19/mi), Relocating ($.19/mi), and Charitable ($.14/mi) are essentially the "teenager's cost" of an automobile, as in "hey Dad, may I borrow the car; I'll put some gas in it". Medical and Relo are higher as such could well involve an oil change if, for Medical, a patient had to drive/be driven from Java SD (it's on the MILW) to Rochester, MN for treatment. That journey would involve a trip to Jiffy Lube (well; a "filling station" in Java).

But the Business rate of $.54/mi doesn't even begin to represent the fully allocated cost of operating a "suitable for business use" auto. Not that I have too much in the way of business use anymore, the fully allocated cost of my present auto is $1.9457/mi. My "not always followed" advice to clients was "keep the necessary records - don't just drive away from the pump without a receipt".

A "car service" driver (Uber, Lyft, whoever) had best keep all records needed to support the business use of the personal auto. After all, those services periodically inspect a driver's auto, and if too much of a pig sty, that driver is a driver no more.

SouthernRailway wrote:$183 was a one-way airfare to Europe maybe 10 years ago, but not now.

Norwegian bombards me with emails touting JFK or Boston to London Gatwick for $195 (one way) this fall, JFK to Paris for $175, Boston to Martinique (in the Caribbean) for $69

The "trick" is that the one-way fare BACK is more expensive because of European departure taxes (especially from London).

Maybe what we need is a better way to compare Amtrak fare with airline fares. May make the MEM to CUS more reasonable than a fare from MEM to MDW or ORD. By the way, the Delta flight stops in Detroit for an up to 6 hour trip. Now the 10 hours from MEM to CUS don't seem so bad. your results may vary.

While we are at it, summer gas prices are now higher than a few months ago if not still lower than a year ago. Somebody may not take 10 hours on I-57?

While we are at it, how would you figure the 3 hours it may take to get out of NSH to fly to MDW or ORD? how much of the true cost (parking, taxi) needs to be added?

GWoodle wrote:Maybe what we need is a better way to compare Amtrak fare with airline fares.

That reminds me of something. With airfare, I can look at calendars and matrices.


I can put July 2 - July 10, and then see immediately that if I fly on July 3 I save $100 (for example). With google flights, I dont even have to put in dates. I can put two cities and see when the cheapest date is, half a year in advance.

Is there any way to do this on Amtrak? Its a huge pain to go day by day.

google: amsnag

It is exactly what you are looking for.