Amtrak Downeaster Discussion Thread

[MEC407]

There's a book called Passenger Trains of Northern New England in the Streamline Era (TLC Publishing) that contains a lot of info (and photos) on B&M/MEC service post-WWII.

Here's a link to the book for sale: http://www.bullmoose.com/p/3396040/kevi ... amline-era" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I was recently able to borrow this book from the Bowdoin College Library, via my local public library. Bowdoin appears to be the only library in the state of Maine that owns a copy, which is surprising and unfortunate, but the good news is that most public libraries can easily borrow it from Bowdoin, as mine did. Alternatively, it can be purchased from the link I posted above. It's a very nice book, and the price is surprisingly reasonable.

[Cowford]

"Without studying the specific proposals; better parking, better roads, better platforms, better facilities, etc..."

WIth respect, that doesn't wash. The statement referred to better connections to the Old Port/waterfront. That would pretain to non-Maine passengers, for whom parking is a non-issue. And road access wouldn't improve by crossing the tracks.

[ThirdRail7]

"Without studying the specific proposals; better parking, better roads, better platforms, better facilities, etc..."

WIth respect, that doesn't wash. The statement referred to better connections to the Old Port/waterfront. That would pretain to non-Maine passengers, for whom parking is a non-issue. And road access wouldn't improve by crossing the tracks.

Perhaps this part is key to the answer you seek:

Thompson hinted that more changes to the Thompson's Point development plan are in the works.

"We're working on an amendment to this that ... helps us put the event center in an even better spot in relation to the intermodal transportation center," he said.

Perhaps what they are thinking of is better served by being on the "right side of the tracks"

[markhb]

I still like the idea of a duck boat water taxi! In the water at Thompson's Point, out of the water where Portland Yacht Services is now, stops (with wheelchair lifts available) at Ocean Gateway, the Hilton, maybe the new Courtyard, then reverse direction back up Commercial with a stop at DiMillo's parking lot (for convenience) and back into the water to the Point. Using a modern duck boat gives you more convenient options downtown, plus makes it easier to offer wheelchair accessibility than a regular speedboat.

[Cowford]

From TRNE: "May, 2013 ridership on the Boston-Brunswick route was 1,909, and Freeport's ridership was 838. Together (2,747)..."

That's an average of 44 passengers per day each way daily, or 15 passengers per train east of Portland. That's outstanding! Not only that, revenue per passenger declined 3% vs 2012 to $13.71... this flies in the face of those naysayers that think revenue per passenger should actually go UP when route-miles are added to a service lane. Well done!

[millerm277]

From TRNE: "May, 2013 ridership on the Boston-Brunswick route was 1,909, and Freeport's ridership was 838. Together (2,747)..."

That's an average of 44 passengers per day each way daily, or 15 passengers per train east of Portland. That's outstanding! Not only that, revenue per passenger declined 3% vs 2012 to $13.71... this flies in the face of those naysayers that think revenue per passenger should actually go UP when route-miles are added to a service lane. Well done!

Or you could look at a more useful measure than month to month fluctuations in ridership, in which case revenue per passenger is up 4% vs 2012 from $13.99 to $14.55.

[gokeefe]

From TRNE: "May, 2013 ridership on the Boston-Brunswick route was 1,909, and Freeport's ridership was 838. Together (2,747)..."

That's an average of 44 passengers per day each way daily, or 15 passengers per train east of Portland. That's outstanding! Not only that, revenue per passenger declined 3% vs 2012 to $13.71... this flies in the face of those naysayers that think revenue per passenger should actually go UP when route-miles are added to a service lane. Well done!

Or you could look at a more useful measure than month to month fluctuations in ridership, in which case revenue per passenger is up 4% vs 2012 from $13.99 to $14.55.

Or we could just quote the paragraph in its entireity!

Expansion Stations:

May, 2013 ridership on the Boston-Brunswick route was 1,909, and Freeport's ridership was 838. Together (2,747), they exceeded Boston-Durham (2,582) and Boston-Haverhill (2,564) and approached the numbers for Boston-Saco (2,885). Ms. Quinn was very pleased with these initial May numbers for the expansion towns.

By the way. I would note that based on the figures as reported it would appear that we are going to be very close to 550K riders for the State fiscal year ending June 30, 2013. We were are 523K last year. Given all of the difficulties and challenges this past year I'm quite impressed. Based on current trends and the hope of a successful April vacation next year I think it wouldn't be outrageous to predict 600K at this time next year. The only cloud of the horizon for that is the possibility of a major drop in gas prices, which in my mind remains a very serious possibility.

In one sense perhaps the most impressive thing of all is that in a place were annual incremental losses of passenger traffic were once so common the Downeaster has now proven over time that there is annual incremental growth potential for passenger rail. Given the history of this route and of passenger rail in Maine that to me is a phenomenal trend to observe. This was never supposed to happen at all. The service should have started to slowly atrophy from Day 1 and it hasn't. These are not the kinds of numbers that lead one to consider exiting the passenger rail service business, and most certainly not when we are speaking in terms of government operating subsidies.

In the meantime trip times are almost certain to see some very significant improvements on a relatively short stretch between HHL and BON which will yield major timing improvements on the NH-BON segements where the Downeaster gets so many of its regular commuters. The passenger count expansion from those changes is likely to be substantial. Even as little as a 5'' improvement, if well publicized, could portend an immediate 5%-10% increase in permanent ridership growth on top of regular baseline annual incremental growth for the New Hampshire - Boston segments.

Also note that due to the higher baseline ridership 600K @ June 30, 2014 would require average growth of 8.3%. It's on the high side but not out of reach especially as the Brunswick service continues to develop in its first full state fiscal year. We could even say something crazy like 50K/year for the next six years until June 30, 2020 which would put the Downeaster at just under 1,000K riders per year and that would be assuming slowing growth trends (on a percentage basis) each year.

Bottom Line: At the current pace and even assuming some moderate deceleration we are headed for 1,000,000 passengers per year by 2020 and perhaps sooner. I think that's a really big deal.

[gokeefe]

Here is a list of the other services which currently have more than 1,000,000 riders per year:

As of the end of FY '12:

1. Pacific Surfliner (2.6M)
2. Capitol Corridor (1.7M)
3. Keystone (1.4M)
4. San Joaquin (1.1M)
5. Empire (1.0M)

Note of course that all of the above operate in at least some Class V territory where speeds can be up to 90 MPH MAS with the Keystones running in territory where speeds can be significantly higher.

Of the services that are currently larger than the Downeaster all of them except for the Cascades operate on some Class V territory as well. I think that too points to what an impressive achievement the Downeaster's success has been.

[Cowford]

"Or you could look at a more useful measure than month to month fluctuations in ridership, in which case revenue per passenger is up 4% vs 2012 from $13.99 to $14.55."

Or you could look at multi-month trends and see that over the last six months, YOY revenue per passenger growth has been zero.

Just usin' the MOM data provided by TRNE and NNEPRA.

[artman]

"Or you could look at a more useful measure than month to month fluctuations in ridership, in which case revenue per passenger is up 4% vs 2012 from $13.99 to $14.55."

Or you could look at multi-month trends and see that over the last six months, YOY revenue per passenger growth has been zero.

Just usin' the MOM data provided by TRNE and NNEPRA.

Why is this such a big deal? It simply means ticket prices are stable and food purchases are stable. The fact is, they are carrying more passengers, and that translates to more revenue. I would like to see revenue go up also, but a stable revenue stream is nothing to complain about.

[trollyFoamer]

I too wonder why revenue per passenger is such a big deal. For example if the train used to carry Boston to Portland passengers, and with the extension now carries Portland to Brunswick passengers, then revenue per passenger would go down, since the shorter haul Por-Bru passengers would bring the average down, but they're not displacing any of the Bos-Por passengers.

[MEC407]

From the Bangor Daily News:

Opponents of a proposed $12 million train maintenance and layover facility hope an upcoming environmental review will result in the project being moved away from their neighborhood.
. . .
Dan Sullivan, chairman of the Brunswick West Neighborhood Coalition, said he’s confident the U.S. Federal Rail Administration will conclude that the proposed location between Church Road and Stanwood Street is unsuitable.
. . .
Patricia Quinn, executive director of the Northern New England Passenger Rail Authority, said the FRA’s environmental review of the proposed facility could begin sometime this summer.
. . .
If the FRA finds the Church-Stanwood site not viable, Quinn said it could stop the project in its tracks because there are, according to a 2011 report, no other viable sites in Brunswick.

Read more at: http://bangordailynews.com/2013/07/03/n ... od-relief/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[markhb]

"May, 2013 ridership on the Boston-Brunswick route was 1,909, and Freeport's ridership was 838."

The way I read those numbers, the Brunswick and Freeport figures given were specifically those for passengers riding the full route from BON to those stops; they don't appear to include passengers from intermediate points (although the Freeport side is somewhat ambiguous). The unanswered question is, are those stations experiencing more or less than the average 15% of riders not going to or from Boston? I might guess less, if anything, just because of the added travel time to BON, but I don't rightly know anything.

However, if those stations are experiencing a greater-than-average number of non-Boston riders, that might help to explain the reduced revenue per-passenger: more of those passengers are traveling shorter distances, therefore paying less. You can't complain about both a reduced average revenue per-passenger and lack of intermediate ridership; the latter compels the former assuming fares are steady and somewhat reflective of distance traveled.

[Cowford]

"Why is this such a big deal? It simply means ticket prices are stable and food purchases are stable... but a stable revenue stream is nothing to complain about.."

It isn't if all you care about is ridership. And if all you care about is ridership, why not offer the service free of charge?

The fact is: NNEPRA's operating costs are outpacing revenue growth. By how much? That remains to be seen, but consider there was a 24% (on a mileage basis) route expansion last October. As such, May's fuel burn alone had to have increased ~$35K vs 2012. And May's revenue was up just $27K.

A route lengthening should bump revenue per passenger, particularly a route like the DE which runs between hub (BON) and satellite (POR/BRU). It's not.

Markhb, I agree with you that the numbers are a little murky, but it's not too far off of NNEPRA's 3,000/mo passenger forecast for yr one.

[eastwind]

If my calculations are correct, the next post will bring this thread to 300 pages.

Happy July 4th, everyone!

--eastwind