I have some thoughts on this; I'll leave the doom-saying to others. Amtrak has a good deal of information at its disposal which we lack:
- The number of coach passengers in the dining car vs the number of sleeper passengers
- The cost of preparing meals onboard
- The total number of meals served on an average trip relative to passenger load
- The demographic breakdown of its passengers
Amtrak has to be intrigued by the results on the
Silver Star, where the elimination of the dining car didn't kill the train (quite the opposite, in fact). Anecdotally, a friend traveled with his wife and three school-aged children from the Northeast to Orlando, in coach, and far from starving (as is often presumed here) found the cafe car met their needs (augmented by some snacks bought beforehand).
The dining car is a profit black hole. Always has been, even under private operation. A loss leader makes sense, maybe, when competing with other railroads. When you're competing with other transport modes, it becomes more complicated. You can't provide a truly superlative dining experience without raising the price to unacceptably high levels. The
September 2017 dining car menu for the
Capitol Limited priced most entrees between $16-25. Amtrak's not making a profit there, and it still represents a markup over what you'd pay at a restaurant for comparable food. The
Capitol Limited and
Lake Shore Limited incorporate the additional challenge of only serving two meals in each direction, because of the timing. The dining car is deadweight for long stretches. Additionally, the "lounge" space on the
Lake Shore Limited is woefully inadequate.
Going over to pre-packaged meals eliminates a number of complexities:
- The time for a person to eat is dramatically compressed. It's a long stretch between sitting down, ordering, eating, and paying. That's all gone now.
- The social awkwardness of community seating is eliminated. Those who want to interact with others in the lounge may do so, just as they do in existing lounge cars.
- People who want to eat but are boarding/disembarking during meal times have a much better chance of actually getting fed.
- The total number of meals served will presumably go up, because on-board preparation and available seating are no longer limiting factors.
There is probably an overall loss of food quality here; the question is whether or not that matters. If the relative loss of food quality does not negatively impact passenger loads, then Amtrak's making a smart bet. The increased availability of onboard lounge space for sleeper passengers is an immediate win, as are the free non-alcoholic beverages and the complimentary drink (shades of the revamp of Chicago's Metropolitan Lounge). I can speak only for myself, but unless the food is truly unpalatable, this doesn't affect my decision to travel by train. If this causes sleeper prices to level out because Amtrak has additional capacity, then that's even better.