A kind of "reverse saber rattling?" re. Cape Cod

The threat of major cuts/fare increases on the MBTA have been blunted somewhat by the decision of the MBTA board to remove weekend commuter rail service on thePlymouth/Kingston lines and Greenbush. While this is bad enough, at least it's not the draconian version that was initially proposed. Many have likened this to 'saber rattling' to get people talking and figure out a more reasonable action.
now i present this scenario: Could the recent broken promises by the state to support and restore passenger rail to the Cape be a form of "reverse saber-rattling?" A kind of move to shut the mouths of rail advocates to the Cape.
Whenever there's an oil shock, gasoline price increase, or an increase of the already-gridlocked traffic to the Cape, the state will say that rail service is "under consideration" for the upcoming summer, then back off from it on the grounds of "no money," or "the plan presented is innefficient and will attract few riders." This latter comment came from so-called rail supporter Tom Cahir during a call-in radio program on the local NPR affiliate WCAI during a show called "The Point." The topic of the day was improving transportation options to the Cape, and I was one of the callers who reminded Mr. Cahir that the NIMBY's of who he was concerned about chose to live by the RR line and that the most recent rail proposal in 2010 was nixed (not surprisingly) by the state.
Mr. Cahir explained that Cape Cod Central's plan would not have produced ridership and that the proposal for 2012 was the better option, although he started to waffle on that proposal as well.
This all seems designed, IMHO to appease the rail supporters so when they quiet down, the state can continue to cater to the bus monopoly and the NIMBY's who chose to build their homes near the RR tracks.
This is just one example. I'm sure you have your own as other similar actions have occured around the country in relation to passenger rail. Certainly this is no complete list by any stretch.

With how BS some of those cuts are at actually reducing cost, I'm not sure the Old Colony suspensions are going to last that long. There aren't real savings to be had, because staff will keep their shifts by popping up elsewhere. Like other off-peak weekend runs where they usually isolate some cars. Or more inspectors, like all the displaced Red, Blue, and Orange line operators when they implemented OPTO. It's so institutionally ingrained and there is so little holding them to actually trimming waste that it's a bunk excuse. Just like some of the cuts--like truncating the length of the E trolley without reducing runs or staff--are so flimsy that they're outright money losses with revenue reductions outpacing cost savings (if there are any to begin with).

Now, keep in mind that the tie replacement project has now moved onto the Middleboro Line. Which meant weekend disruptions regardless. So there's no real reduction here to begin with. It was already reduced. If there's any savings to be had it's taking a more leisurely pace to the tie replacement. What are the odds that Old Colony is the first cut that they cave on when there's blowback. Especially when it's summer season and people actually want to go to Plymouth, and especially when the Cape gets riled up about how this totally torpedoes the Cape Cod Central's well-laid plans to set up a transfer train that's FREE MONEY for the T by boosting weekend ridership and parking revenues along the M'boro Line. I don't doubt there's a political agenda here to get out of even the most pathetic token engagement of the Cape constituency, but this is also a cynical enough "cuts" plan that they know damn well in advance which ones they're gonna cave on in short order. The E truncation, every 3 years they try it, never sticks because of the howls from the neighborhood. This probably is no different because it saves no money and loses all revenue at the cut stops. But I bet Middleboro and Kingston/Plymouth are the other preordained concessions and they only keep underperforming Greenbush and perennialy-shafted Needham closed because their constituencies aren't big enough or loud enough to force their hands. If anything they compromise on a lighter schedule so the staff can chew up their shifts all the same without arousing suspicion popping up too-conspicuously in too-plausibly overstaffed numbers on the remaining weekend lines.

A problem in part with the observation concerning The Cape
is the majority ofthe people living year round down here
aren't likely to get riled up about it at all, and neither would the
a good percentage of tourists..I'd love to have the
alternative here ,but truth be told ,it probably
wouldn't get the ridership to sustain it long term.

Although by the state's own admission, the seasonal rail service was removed in the 1980's as a result of funding cuts and politics, not ridership. The ridership was actually growing at the time. Even the "Cape Codder" run by Amtrak was a frequently sold out train until the state made the conscious decision to remove funding in the early 90's, forcing Amtrak to make unpopular schedule changes and heavy fare increases, thus causing ridership to drop. The state later in essence said (mocking low voice) "See, it's a train, nobody's riding it."
Later, the Falmouth rail line from the wasted Falmouth station to North Falmouth was stolen by the state for a bike path, behind closed doors no less, thus removing a viable portion of the branch.
Many people on the Cape kept saying, "I want to see the train return, but it will never happen." Thus ensuring that it would be a hard battle because THEY wouldn't fight for it.
A few years ago, P&B bus was concerned that rail service could cut into their business, and several state officials concurred with them, despite the fact that bus and rail service ran side-by-side for decades. The state apparently chose to protect the bus monopoly as well as those folks who made the free-will choice to buy or rent homes near the rail line.

The former head of Cape Cod Central RR, John Kennedy, has stated on more than one occasion that if a rail service to the Cape was run the right way, and marketed properly, it would have the ridership base to keep it sustained in the long run. Of course the rail service would not be a stand-alone solution, but an additional part of the transportation solution.
Yet "progressive" Massachusetts chose to build more roads instead to encourage more auto traffic (and air pollution by default) as well as encouraging the wholesale industrial tourists rather than the eco-tourism that was envisioned.
Now with the so-called road work proceeding on the Sagamore bridge once again, Cape travelers and residents are forced to put up with the miles long backups, and the state doesn't make a fuss because then one has no choice but to purchase the ever-more expensive gasoline.

One might say that if people came by train, then they must make their way around without a car, but that's also true if your coming down by bus, or flying in to Hyannis or Provincetown, or taking the high-speed ferries to P-town. Rail travel is no different in this respect. That's also why we have an RTA.

I use the RTA on a very regular basis and while I appreciate having the
service itself,but it's not a reliable connection in peak season.One major problem
with the schedules is they're not adjusted to peak season travel and the
buses,particukarly the H20 from Orleans to Hyannis is seldom on
time after the early mormimg runs.No fault of the drivers at all, but rhe winter
schedules can't possibly fit the summer traffic flow and are never adjusted to.
I used those trains from Braintree and Attleboro down to The Cape often
as well as Amtrak going back and forth from NY/NJ when they ran,and
ridership might have been growing to some degree but not enough
to justify being more than a seasonal service,and even then just two trains a
a day to Braintree would have sufficed,not the four they were at one time
running.

I concur MickD, At least start off with the two trains a day, then try to "grow" the ridership by making sure the service is convenient, connects to other transport, and of course is well-marketed and advertized. Then, if demand warrents, add a third train, and so on. But at least allow a basic service to commence, and give it a chance to prove itself.

Granted, the RTA isn't always reliable. It needs to be made more efficient,but I don't think that's insurmountable. At least they have more services than they did ten years ago and I must give them credit for initiating the Flex bus, and the Provincetown summer shuttle.

Having said all that, a basic rail service as you described is probably the best bet to get things started, at least during the peak travel season.

How about having direct weekend Hyannis- South Station service in the Summer? With commuter rail gone on weekends it would eliminate the need to change trains in Middleborough but no doubt liabilities with the MBTA and other issues might make it a "non starter"?

I believe that's the current plan, NRGeep, for 2012, although it seems that the state is trying to waffle and weesel out of it.

I don't think the plan has changed at all from
running to Middleboro to change there for a connection,
which might work as novelty for a season but
people traveling with luggage are more than
likely not going to be attracted to a 2 seat ride
from SS,3 from Logan when there's one seat from
either/or..One seat from SS, I believe could work
seasonally with equipment other than those ex-LIRR
coaches,which are fine for the tourist runs ,but not
a an average 2 1/2 hour trip from South Station.

They might consider trying to get hold of the Northlander
train set if they could secure some kind of funding.

Could they not use a southside MBTA train set for weekend only trains?

not 'reverse saber rattling', just reality. for every dollar in revenues, mbta commuter rail spends two. and this does not include debt interest. it's an expensive operation and will not be expanded by a cape move. no one will pay the true fare, nor subject themselves to the total lack of flexibility once detrained. our society has gone beyond non-commuter passenger rail save for those few who ride amtrak intercity. ken patrick

KEN PATRICK wrote:our society has gone beyond non-commuter passenger rail save for those few who ride amtrak intercity.

What does this word salad even mean?

What is really needed in the MBTA area is a fare increase and a gasoline tax increase dedicated to the support of mass transit. The fare is ridiculously low for the services offered. Better promotion and better service will help a lot more than taking off trains and buses will. People have to realize that if you want decent service you or at least somebody has to pay for it, it is as simple as that. There is no doubt in my mind that a decent service between Hyannis and Boston would be a success in so far as ridership is concerned, I don't know about costs but probably would not lose any more than some of the other services that are presently being operated by rail or by bus. I certainally think Hyannis makes much more sense than either Fall River or New Bedford will but again I am not a decision maker.
Noel Weaver

Noel Weaver wrote:What is really needed in the MBTA area is a fare increase and a gasoline tax increase dedicated to the support of mass transit. The fare is ridiculously low for the services offered. Better promotion and better service will help a lot more than taking off trains and buses will. People have to realize that if you want decent service you or at least somebody has to pay for it, it is as simple as that. There is no doubt in my mind that a decent service between Hyannis and Boston would be a success in so far as ridership is concerned, I don't know about costs but probably would not lose any more than some of the other services that are presently being operated by rail or by bus. I certainally think Hyannis makes much more sense than either Fall River or New Bedford will but again I am not a decision maker.
Noel Weaver

Well, the ADA mini-high platforms are still there at every single stop leftover from the Cape Codder days. And there's conduit dug and some never-used signal heads for the signal system they were installing before the Cape Codder was axed. If they didn't go overboard on station amenities most of the cost is going to be track rehab (avg. current passenger speed = 30 MPH for the tourist train) and doing the signals.

http://www.buzzardsbay.org/commuter-rails.htm

Some study materials from a few years ago for a commuter rail expansion to Buzzards Bay. Quotes under $100M, which sounds about right for 1 infill stop in Wareham, tracks/signaling, and whatever little needs to be done to Buzzards Bay station for a turnback w/parking (I would assume the main layover would stay at the big Middleboro yard and at most there'd just be short-term idling space at BB). If they wanted to start getting 79 MPH speeds and a full-time CR schedule from M'boro to BB it would serve the commuter market by hitting all the highway/bridge interchanges. And would facilitate much denser Cape Cod Central RR transfer service. They don't need to think other-side-of-bridge at all on that initial step. They can stick their necks out slowly getting onto the Cape-proper afterwards. Possibly when they've lined up the extra stakeholders like Amtrak. Maybe keep the on-Cape stations bare and unmodified, only bump the track speed to 59 MPH + signals, and keep the schedule limited. 79 Boston-BB and 59 BB-Hyannis is going to best the highway travel time easily even at a Class 3 track compromise. That might be advisable because the schedule past BB will be limited sharply by bridge openings. That's a case they'll have to make to the Army once it's a grower, once Amtrak comes back, etc. But this is a build that doesn't have to be monolithic; they have the flex to do it in risk-managed phases.