Who's Next on the Merger List?

From the Bog Four there will be no merger. In a depression/recession there could be a spinoff of secondary lines. May be possible some CN/UP lines to give access to Texas & Mexico.

Another target could be short line operators like RJ Corman into regional systems.

The CN/UP deal may be nothing new. Have a run thru agreement from Canada into UP/C&NW yards. Matter of time to have agreements into BNSF/ATSF or CB&Q yards.

From Congress expecting some re-regulation in crew size, train length. Maybe no more monster 2 mile freights.

A related question could be: how does GWI react to the recent merger mania? Are there any independent shortlines or regionals that GWI is likely to snatch up in the next five years, and if yes, which ones and why?

Even though GWI is not technically a Class I railroad, it's worth remembering that the company owns or operates railroads in 42 U.S. states and four Canadian provinces, with approximately 13,000 track miles. It's easy to forget how monstrously large this company is.

GWI is large enough that the new FRA emissions regs for earlier generation locomotives kicked in. I could see P&W taking over some of the ex guilford that CSX just acquired.

GWoodle wrote: ↑Wed May 24, 2023 9:16 am In a depression/recession there could be a spinoff of secondary lines.

This reminded me, did anyone, anywhere (including in Jacksonville) every get a sense of what CSX was planning when the put 80% of their network up for sale back in 2018? Other than a few underused lines getting sold for unremarkable prices (the Gulf Coast), it seemed that there was little movement.

Alongside the mysterious CSX downsizing plan, I also see quite a few NS lines in NC that are underused (basically everything that is not between Gaffney and Danville). Could a national Class I slimming down be in the cards?

More speculatively, in light of Brightline’s recent success, could we be at the precipice of a new private company passenger operator in some select corridors (presumably on tracks with declining freight network importance).

Bob Roberts wrote: ↑Fri May 26, 2023 2:22 pm

GWoodle wrote: ↑Wed May 24, 2023 9:16 am In a depression/recession there could be a spinoff of secondary lines.

This reminded me, did anyone, anywhere (including in Jacksonville) every get a sense of what CSX was planning when the put 80% of their network up for sale back in 2018? Other than a few underused lines getting sold for unremarkable prices (the Gulf Coast), it seemed that there was little movement.

I do see quite a few NS lines in NC that are underused (basically everything that is not between Gaffney and Danville). Could a national Class I slimming down be in the cards?

Yes, I expect more regionals, which can do business which isn't PSR unit trains.
I look at the hazelton/scranton Pa area, and expect DL and BMRN to expand.

John_Perkowski wrote: ↑Fri May 19, 2023 12:13 am
CN may need to find a partner.

Mexico would be a takeover target but for the cartels.

CN by revenue is bigger than Norfolk Southern.