What kind of numbers will Brightline pull when the Orlando connection is finished?

The South and Central areas of Florida have experienced insane growth over the past few years, especially during the pandemic. South and Central Florida are pretty popular destinations for both residents and non-residents of Florida to visit back and forth, so how successful will the whole Orlando-Miami connection be?

cannot tell yet but the Star friday is sold out coach with just rooms available. Sat coach 90%. Note Star usually only sells out at last minute.

I'm honestly curious about this. There's a HUGE desert between West Palm Beach and Orlando and I know that the Space Coast and Treasure coast are growing. The fact they can't use Brightline will def limit the service.

I foresee "reasonable" public acceptance once service to MCO is establighed, but not enough to ensure Brightline is a going concern. Reports of the passenger counts - on the existing MIA-WPB service - that are part of the all too often grade X-ing collisions are "not very encouraging".

I further foresee a State "bail out" of the "well connected" bondholders who acquired these Federal income tax free Private Activity bonds with a reported coupon of 8% interest through a private placement, meaning what they actually paid for them is, well, "private". I fully expect there will be "an on the QT" bailout. Likely not for par, but enough to represent an effective interest rate well in excess of any available on the open market.

Brightline will then become a "ward of the State".

Oh; and willing to bet that these bondholders are Florida residents - no State income tax!!!! Further, when the State "bails 'em out" - there will in all likelihood be an eventually quite deductible Long-Term Capital Loss (a Net Capital Loss is either offset against present or future Capital Gains or deducted at $3000 per tax year until used up - the latter of course pocket money to these Bondholders).

Florida has shown they are quite pro-passenger rail (just so long as it isn't Amtrak) with the two regional passenger agencies (Tri and Sun). Adding an intercity agency would fall right in place.

BTW, I'm "going down" during January; I certainly plan to do a Miami-W Palm joyride allowing time for a nice Ribeye at a Ruth's Chris within walking distance of the WPB station. It will be most interesting to see if the high level of service I enjoyed on my Jan '20 joyride (as well as those during '18 and '19) will still be in place.

I wouldn't use Miami-West Palm as an indicator. That's glorified commuter service. Hauling foreign tourists and cruise passengers between Miami and the Mouse should do a lot better.

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Brightline also owns a ton of real estate along their ROW, including the stations. I think that alone will help with numbers.