What if no Guilford?

I think the Maine Central would have merged with the Bangor & Aroostook. In this scenario there is a significant chance that Canadian Pacific would have abandoned the Moosehead Sub in favor of routing all traffic via St. Johnsbury for reasons of efficiency and convenience.

The Rockland Branch *might* have stayed under Maine Central ownership but it seems unlikely. The Lower Road between Brunswick and Augusta also *might* have stayed under Maine Central ownership but that too seems unlikely.

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Even with the deindustrialization of New England, B&M might have been able to make it. A friend grew up in Manchester, and he used to talk about riding around with crews back then. He mentioned how busy things were. I do think that many of these businesses would have gone away no matter what. There are other factors to consider.

One of these factors is that, as mentioned, Guilford jettisoned much of the service dependent traffic. Some of this was intentional, while other parts of it were not. During the strike, the service was basically limited to the major shippers. There were only so many scabs and managers to go around. Much of the smaller businesses got poor service. This forced many to move to trucks. Some came back, but others got a bd taste in their mouths. Without the strikes, it's hard to sy how much traffic could have been retained. Who also knows how much further Alan Dustin could have gone towards speeding up schedules to Maine. Maybe I90 and I95 trucking transit times could have been matched, especially with increased intermodal.

One thing that we can speculate all day about is mergers. Mellon bought my employer, the D&H for 500K. That's because their debt was deep and climbing. Who knows if the later 1980s would have brought more interest and investment form the black stalloin. If they didn't do anything, I think that we would have gone bankrupt. One would then wonder who would have stepped up? Would CPR have stepped into the game sooner? Did Walter Rich?DO have enough financing by that time to take over? Another scenario is the merger of BAR, MEC, B&M, and D&H, just as Buck Dumaine had connived the idea of.

Back at the time the N&W initially received approval to purchase Conrail, GTI worked out agreements
through a combination of track purchases and trackage rights to expand westward to Chicago and
St. Louis among other places in an attempt to provide the competition in a way Dereco was intended
to do. Analysts at the time doubted GTI had the financial wherewithal to pull it off and ultimately
opposition from CSX and other railroads derailed the sale to N&W which also ended GTI's grandiose
expansion plans west at least temporarily. GTI was further set back when the State of New York stepped in and stopped the Springfield Terminal-ification of the D&H effectively ending westward
expansion plans. GTI had closed MEC's Waterville shops, moving the work to East Deerfield and
Oneonta. Unable to have it's way with the D&H, GTI moved the work back to Waterville and cast
the D&H adrift. The rest of the GTI empire has been in a long slow slide downhill ever since,
occasionally buoyed by infusions of government cash for maintenance or improvements.

Fun question if the Mellons didn't want to railroad. We wouldn't have seen them plant Timmy in New England and they wouldn't have created Norfolk Southern.
Maine Central would have done just fine until 2012 when Maines mills died. The Mellons bought the MEC the dirty way, through other companies they owned to kick off ' the plan'. The RR was sound at the time of Purchase in 1981 and only served as a jumping on point to work west to L.A.

The B&M is a different story. Dustin fought like hell to pull the RR out of debt and held kff the courts from carving the RR up but realistically couldn't achieve freedom. As soon as the B&M showed any profit they had to pay their debts ASAP. Trying to pay off bonds, back taxes, overdue mortgages, rebuild a locomotive fleet, and fix a rotten mainline was too much. Had Mellon not come in you would have seen Conrail step in. Something the B&M refused 3 separate times. Fast forward today Rigby west would most likely be CSX depending how the Conrail split went.

My out look on the situation is as follows:

B&M was always going to go belly up and would end up apart of Conrail had Guilford not arrived. The low density lines would have been gone early on.

As for MEC, they would have continued on with the massive overhead they had collected until the paper industry started to crumble in the 90's. The failure to cut the fat in the 80's and pressure from the BOD to continue to move low revenue freight for the paper mills, would have put the railroad on the brink in the 90's. Once cuts began to be made, there likely still would have been a strike, probably not on the scale of the Guilford ones, but there would still be one. By the 2000-2010's MEC would be broke, with crumbling infrastructure. Once the second round of mill closures happened, the railroad would likely dissolve and end up under the Maine DOT. Given that during this era Irving Pulp & Paper was actively looking at Lincoln and possibly other mills in the area, its not too much of a reach to say they would throw a bid out for the lines. Not to mention that Irving sawmills used rail service on some of the MEC lines.

The BAR-MEC concept wouldn't really work. Buck Dumaine tried that, and Spencer Miller fought it tooth and nail, which I think caused it to go to court. The courts sided with MEC and Dumaine had to sell his shares off. Its just my personal belief, but I always thought the move to sell MEC off to US Filter was done because Dumaine had a 20+ year outlook on things. Knowing that US Filter would either pick apart the railroad, or leach off of it for a while before throwing it to the vultures. Which in the end, could have meant more traffic for the Bangor and Aroostook which had preexisting agreements with CP. Iron Road would have still come around once Dumaine retired, which would have still paved the way for MMA which who knows what could have happened in that timeline.

I think the Mt. Division would've lasted another 10 years before freight declined to a point that it no longer became feasible to keep open. Eventually they would've done what Guilford ended up doing and rerouting the traffic.

I can see where they might have kept Hazens-Saint Johnsbury since they still had some online traffic there, and worked out a haulage agreement with B&M and GT to send stuff to Danville Jct, but the Mountain Division was a big money pit. Between the sand ballast and the rail the Maine portion was pretty well shot.

At the risk of going off-topic... so U.S. Filter completes the purchase of MEC in Dec 1980, then Ashland Oil buys U.S. Filter months later in early 1981. U.S. Filter then sells MEC to GTI in May 1981-at what was reported to be a tidy profit- just 6 months after the acquisition. The "coincidence" of Dave Fink having had recent ties with Ashland Coal (subsidiary of Ashland Oil) has always been curious to me.

I never knew about that, which like you said is interesting. As controversial as Guilford was, there was a great deal of history surrounding the company which should be preserved somehow since its quite interesting. At one time they also owned a car tracking company which was probably the first application of a railroad using a satellite.

It would be nice to see Guilford/Pan Am preserved in some form or fashion, since they did forever change New England railroads and railroads across the US as a whole. However it seems like any railroad post 1980 is not worthy of preservation to most groups.

A few more possibilities--

B&M purchasing D&H on its own. This could have gone a better way than the GTI story went. This would have started its own competition to Conrail. I know B&M was talking about going Conrail, but once they started turning things around I could see them being the balance to competition. Eventually they'd be folded into NS after Conrail split.

MEC goes to CN or CP. I already mentioned in this thread CP taking MEC, but CN could have been a viable player with their line into Maine. Alledgedly CN make a major play for paper traffic off the MEC (GTI) up until the sale of their line. Assuming GTI never happened and CN snatched up MEC, they could have easily incorporated the traffic base into the trunk lines to Chicago.

Other scenarios--

MEC continues along independent until its snatched up by CSX or NS after Conrail split.

In 1995 they could have become a player in the CP divestiture by purchasing the Moosehead sub as well as some kind of incorporation into the BAR/CDAC outfit. GTI did make a bid for the CP lines but nothing serious. Irving could also have snapped up MEC in their foray into Railroading in 1995.

Ultimately what seems inevitable is what's basically played out in reality. Mountain Division abandonment and incorporation into a Class I or larger regional.

In the early 60's Maine Central had some debt maturing and E. Spencer Miller was struggling for ways to
pay it off. One idea he had was to sell MEC to CPR and he went to Montreal to offer a proposal to CPR
officers who decided Miller had set his price far too high and the offer went nowhere. A few years later
he did sell Mattawamkeag to Vanceboro tp CPR and used the proceeds to retire debt- I don't remember
whether it was the same debt causing the earlier concerns but Miller was known for his creative
financing. The tanking of paper and manufacturing traffic in Maine didn't happen all at once; it was well
under way by the 1960's and CPR, CNR and other railroads probably felt MEC was a poor long term
investment when studying the prospects for future traffic. Buck Dumaine was interested but Miller started
his RR career with the fight to separate MEC from the B&M and wasn't going to see it reversed.

CN9634 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2024 11:01 am A few more possibilities--

B&M purchasing D&H on its own. This could have gone a better way than the GTI story went. This would have started its own competition to Conrail. I know B&M was talking about going Conrail, but once they started turning things around I could see them being the balance to competition. Eventually they'd be folded into NS after Conrail split.

MEC goes to CN or CP. I already mentioned in this thread CP taking MEC, but CN could have been a viable player with their line into Maine. Alledgedly CN make a major play for paper traffic off the MEC (GTI) up until the sale of their line. Assuming GTI never happened and CN snatched up MEC, they could have easily incorporated the traffic base into the trunk lines to Chicago.

Other scenarios--

MEC continues along independent until its snatched up by CSX or NS after Conrail split.

In 1995 they could have become a player in the CP divestiture by purchasing the Moosehead sub as well as some kind of incorporation into the BAR/CDAC outfit. GTI did make a bid for the CP lines but nothing serious. Irving could also have snapped up MEC in their foray into Railroading in 1995.

Ultimately what seems inevitable is what's basically played out in reality. Mountain Division abandonment and incorporation into a Class I or larger regional.

I can't really see any of these scenarios playing out.

B&M was not just broke but bankrupt and purchasing the D&H which had its own share of issues would have been a poor move. B&M would have had to front cash they didn't have and given the fact that they were bankrupt it would have been impossible to find anyone willing to invest into the business.

CP depending on the timeframe was already looking at jettisoning east of Montreal off. Adding more low density branches which already had a failing paper industry, would have still been a horrible investment long term. Any company, including CP or CN could see that. At the time CN dumped the SLA, they were still moving a lot of the paper traffic from Bucksport and a few of the other mills, so that idea doesn't check out.

MEC could have remained independent but given the amount of fat they hadn't trimmed by the 80's, and the amount of low revenue branches many of which they were breaking even on, that were still around that would have drowned them. For the sake of the timeline, B&M goes to Conrail. Conrail still gets split, MEC goes belly up in the early 90's. If anything either ends up as Railtex or one of the other holding companies from that era, and eventually becomes a G&W property or owned by some other operator.

BAR already tried buying MEC during the Dumaine era ending in a legal battle which saw Dumaine being forced to sell his shares, which went to US Filter. If Miller had stayed in charge of MEC its unlikely that they would have forged a partnership or merger. On the Iron Road side of things, they got as big as they were going to get. They had major money problems right out of the gate which is really what hamstrung IANR to begin with, and eventually caused Dan Sabin to separate that railroad from the rest of the IR franchise.

As for the Mountain Division, abandonment was always going to happen. A rail line with hardly any online customers, poor infrastructure, and high maintenance costs was always going to get dumped. Remember the port of Saint John wasn't driving Class 1 expansion into Maine. Really, until the past few years Class 1's were trying to get out of New England: CN sale of the SLA and CV, CP sale east of Montreal, CSX as recently as 2018 was looking at exiting New England. So its highly unlikely a railroad, let alone a Class 1 would ever look at taking it over, when its isolated from just about everyone but CP.

Agreed, however when applying probability to possibility for sake of the timeline in this old network business:

MaineRailfan wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2024 8:59 am MEC could have remained independent but given the amount of fat they hadn't trimmed by the 80's, and the amount of low revenue branches many of which they were breaking even on, that were still around that would have drowned them. For the sake of the timeline, B&M goes to Conrail. Conrail still gets split, MEC goes belly up in the early 90's. If anything either ends up as Railtex or one of the other holding companies from that era, and eventually becomes a G&W property or owned by some other operator.

Late '80's/early '90's Conrail, muscular and in necessary strategic survival growth-mode, pursues MEC purchase, already having focused on the B&M's primary value Worcester-Portland, with good chance the B&M along the FML to the west of Ayer severed.

Leads me to believe that Guilford's ultimate value was in maintaining the B&M's role serving 2 western gateways.

MaineRailfan wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2024 8:59 am I can't really see any of these scenarios playing out.

B&M was not just broke but bankrupt and purchasing the D&H which had its own share of issues would have been a poor move. B&M would have had to front cash they didn't have and given the fact that they were bankrupt it would have been impossible to find anyone willing to invest into the business.

CP depending on the timeframe was already looking at jettisoning east of Montreal off. Adding more low density branches which already had a failing paper industry, would have still been a horrible investment long term. Any company, including CP or CN could see that. At the time CN dumped the SLA, they were still moving a lot of the paper traffic from Bucksport and a few of the other mills, so that idea doesn't check out.

MEC could have remained independent but given the amount of fat they hadn't trimmed by the 80's, and the amount of low revenue branches many of which they were breaking even on, that were still around that would have drowned them. For the sake of the timeline, B&M goes to Conrail. Conrail still gets split, MEC goes belly up in the early 90's. If anything either ends up as Railtex or one of the other holding companies from that era, and eventually becomes a G&W property or owned by some other operator.

BAR already tried buying MEC during the Dumaine era ending in a legal battle which saw Dumaine being forced to sell his shares, which went to US Filter. If Miller had stayed in charge of MEC its unlikely that they would have forged a partnership or merger. On the Iron Road side of things, they got as big as they were going to get. They had major money problems right out of the gate which is really what hamstrung IANR to begin with, and eventually caused Dan Sabin to separate that railroad from the rest of the IR franchise.

As for the Mountain Division, abandonment was always going to happen. A rail line with hardly any online customers, poor infrastructure, and high maintenance costs was always going to get dumped. Remember the port of Saint John wasn't driving Class 1 expansion into Maine. Really, until the past few years Class 1's were trying to get out of New England: CN sale of the SLA and CV, CP sale east of Montreal, CSX as recently as 2018 was looking at exiting New England. So its highly unlikely a railroad, let alone a Class 1 would ever look at taking it over, when its isolated from just about everyone but CP.

B&M was actually starting to turn the tide in 1980 right before Guilford. Recall they purchased Conrail lines in CT, picked up new GP40-2s and started moving coal and intermodal via Erie Lack/D&H. Naturally they would have had to align with Conrail on Intermodal or find a way to NS/CSX connections, which would have been via a D&H acquisition. D&H was granted significant trackage rights over Conrail as a balance to competition (thus your POPY/PYPO jobs) in the Northeast. This scenario would have played out similarly had Guilford not happened. In fact, MEC would have potentially initiated a purchase of B&M/D&H as a means to stretch West, or altogether another investment company or regional outfit. But my original point stands, I think ultimately what we have today is about how most scenarios without Guilford would have arrived with the only potential change being NS instead of CSX east of Ayer.

I would argue that 10 years ago NS would never have allowed CSX to capture the lines East of Ayer, but its important to note the timing with an NS administration focused on reduction really opened way for CSX to move in. Its possible that without Guilford/Pan Am that NS could have moved in much sooner ahead of CSX and the PSR movement, as my understanding about PAS was that it initially was supposed to be a larger deal for NS total control but Fink/Mellon wanted too much from NS and thus settled for a JV. Since a no Guilford scenario implies no PAS, there could have been more interest post-Conrail up east.

Deregulation was the game changer, removing market protections from the B&M and D&H, and during a time very unlikely any solvent Class 1 would have wanted to come in from the west and doubtful MEC would have made a move from the east except possibly to preserve their access to the Worcester gateway. It's why the independent B&M's president, Alan Dustin, was against railroad deregulation. Along the fundamental lines of a network business, since the Conrail split NS has grudgingly moved eastward over a 2nd-tier network as the minor player against CSX's superior network and more about maintaining a presence than expansion given the underlying economics.