Railroad Forums 

  • Should Pan Am be concerned about traffic loss due to CP acquiring CMQ?

  • Guilford Rail System changed its name to Pan Am Railways in 2006. Discussion relating to the current operations of the Boston & Maine, the Maine Central, and the Springfield Terminal railroads (as well as the Delaware & Hudson while it was under Guilford control until 1988). Official site can be found here: PANAMRAILWAYS.COM.
Guilford Rail System changed its name to Pan Am Railways in 2006. Discussion relating to the current operations of the Boston & Maine, the Maine Central, and the Springfield Terminal railroads (as well as the Delaware & Hudson while it was under Guilford control until 1988). Official site can be found here: PANAMRAILWAYS.COM.

Moderator: MEC407

 #1525705  by johnpbarlow
 
Until the CP announcement of its intent to acquire CMQ giving it direct connections to the Irving RR empire, Pan Am enjoyed being the only single line operator between Maine/Maritimes and NS/CSX in upstate NY (although I guess it could be argued that CN links Irving traffic to upstate NY and midwest). Now CP will also offer single line service between these points as well as providing single line service into the midwest US. Is there much bridge business over the whole of the Pan Am system for which it should be concerned about CP's CMQ acquisition? I've always thought of Pan Am as being a New England terminal railroad with little bridge traffic but I could be wrong...

https://www.cpr.ca/en/media/cp-to-acqui ... -from-ftai
Last edited by johnpbarlow on Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
 #1525782  by 690
 
Pure speculation on my part, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see CP sell the Bangor Sub (Searsport - Brownville Jct) to Pan Am, and the Millinocket Sub (Brownville - Millinocket) to Irving. CP isn’t buying the CMQ for what essentially amounts to marginal branch lines (for a Class 1). They want the access to the port of Saint John (yes, I know Searsport is a “port”, but nothing is happening there without millions of dollars in investments), and selling the Bangor Sub to Pan Am would still allow CP and Irving to do their interchange, without need CP to run fifty miles to interchange with Pan Am.

That would allow Pan Am to finally axe the line to Keag, and rid themselves of almost fifty miles of horrible track. Irving getting the Millinocket sub would allow them to streamline their operations between the Maine Northern and NBSR.
 #1525850  by newpylong
 
690 wrote: Thu Nov 21, 2019 3:54 pm Pure speculation on my part, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see CP sell the Bangor Sub (Searsport - Brownville Jct) to Pan Am, and the Millinocket Sub (Brownville - Millinocket) to Irving. CP isn’t buying the CMQ for what essentially amounts to marginal branch lines (for a Class 1). They want the access to the port of Saint John (yes, I know Searsport is a “port”, but nothing is happening there without millions of dollars in investments), and selling the Bangor Sub to Pan Am would still allow CP and Irving to do their interchange, without need CP to run fifty miles to interchange with Pan Am.

That would allow Pan Am to finally axe the line to Keag, and rid themselves of almost fifty miles of horrible track. Irving getting the Millinocket sub would allow them to streamline their operations between the Maine Northern and NBSR.
I was thinking something like this too - a win win for all. Keag is on the vine and CP cannot want all of that marginal trackage to nowhere.
 #1525948  by 690
 
Well, some of what they sold. Irving will make out nicely, with CP wanting to run additional traffic to Saint John, plus potentially getting the Millinocket Sub at some point to eliminate the trackage rights currently used to connect the MNR and NBSR. Plus now they will be in a position to play CP, CN and Pan Am off each other to get the cheapest rates.
 #1525988  by backroadrails
 
CP bought CMQ specifically for the Searsport Branch, per multiple sources. Honestly I don’t see through freight coming from nbsr lasting much longer. WANM and Nmwa from what I have seen on Facebook have been rarely over 20 cars over the past few months. And with what little they get from businesses around Bangor isn’t enough to support the line, or warrant a nearly 100 mike round trip. Pan Am had the chance to buy mma (and they submitted bids) but it never panned out. And for what CP paid, I doubt Pan Am would spend that much to buy the Bangor Sub, also seeing how they have 113 miles of either embargoed or 10mph track that they haven’t rebuilt, I doubt the would spend a couple million to buy more trackage.
 #1526002  by 690
 
Pan Am submitted a bid for the Bangor Sub when the MMA was being sold, but it was passed over in favor of a buyer who wanted to purchase the entire railroad (Fortress). And yes, I'm aware that CP has stated that part of the reason they bought the CMQ is for access to Searsport. Here's the thing: Searsport isn't all everyone is making it out to be. There's no direct rail access to the pier anymore (thanks State of Maine), the whole area would need to be completely rebuilt (at a minimum of tens of millions of dollars), there's enough of a NIMBY presence in the area to hinder it from taking off, and lastly, operationally, you can't run six axles down to Searsport, and most of the bridges still need work. Make no mistake, CP bought the CMQ for the (in)direct access to Saint John, despite what they may say publicly about Searsport.

The freight coming off NBSR is largely traffic that goes down to customers on Pan Am, it's not something CP can steal away by offering a better routing/rates. And right now is a slow time of the year for construction, so of course you're going to see less traffic, a large portion of it is lumber and drywall. Saying that the trains have rarely been over twenty cars is pretty disingenuous, considering that the trains are usually more in the ballpark of forty cars or so (I regularly see the train lists/brake slips from these trains, not relying on spotty facebook posts).

But the follow up, why wouldn't Pan Am want to purchase the Bangor Sub, considering it would cost less to purchase that than it would cost to rebuild the 60 miles of track east of NMJ (or even the 45 miles east of Old Town)? It would still provide direct access to Irving and CP, it would allow them to abandon the 45 miles of track east of Old Town outright, and the Bangor Sub is a decent 25 mph line, compared to the shaky 10 of the Freight Main east of Old Town. Furthermore, the small base of traffic that CMQ has would compliment Pan Am's current customer base around NMJ well. As far as CP in concerned, all the local traffic on the Bangor Sub is small time stuff, none of which they are too concerned about. They want the big time stuff, unit oil and potash to Saint John, and potential intermodal.

Finally, looking a little more at the long term, if Pan Am was trying to sell, what would be more tempting to potential buyer? A railroad with a mainline that is mostly 25 mph or better thanks to the purchase of the Bangor Sub, or the current one that has nearly a quarter of the mainline at 10 mph?
 #1526014  by Hux
 
690 wrote: Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:52 pm Finally, looking a little more at the long term, if Pan Am was trying to sell, what would be more tempting to potential buyer? A railroad with a mainline that is mostly 25 mph or better thanks to the purchase of the Bangor Sub, or the current one that has nearly a quarter of the mainline at 10 mph?
Except it would take two winters and SOP of deferred maintenance to knock that 25 down to 10.