SouthernRailway wrote:$10 million savings is Amtrak's made-up number: the same "accounting" that somehow creates profits for the Northeast Corridor. Under GAAP, Amtrak's numbers would look a lot different.
GAAP or not, Amtrak is managed from the numbers it reports in its monthly performance reports (and Congress accepts it), so I might allow a 20% accounting-choices & management-self-delusion variance, but that's not the big problem for the diner, it is that customers voted that a diner-free Star was only worth 15% lower sleeper revenues, dropping from $8m to $7m.
How wrong can the $10m savings number be? Is it 2x overstated? 5x? The problem is still that it'd have to be 10x overstated if you wanted to contend that the diner was somehow only a $1m item that had been paying for itself, since going "Starvation" only resulted in that net loss of $1m in revenue-
SouthernRailway wrote:I'd also be curious to see what the loss would be if Amtrak increased technology and marketing like airlines do in order to reduce labor costs and increase revenues: letting customers order their meals in advance (on American Airlines, I can book my entree in advance online), letting customers prepay for their meals, allowing ordering via mobile phone, etc.
Isn't the big airline innovation commissary/off-board prep?
David Benton wrote:You could possibly double the labor costs. If, as I once read , the crews have equal time off to compensate for been on the train for the round trip. So you need to work out train hours and double it for each staff member. plus hotel etc .
SouthernRailway wrote:Even if were a "real" accounting number, it's not relevant from now on because Heritage diners were a lot more expensive to run than the new, lower-maintenance Viewliner IIs will be.
The first problem is that the lower you want to say the "real" costs of the Heritage diners were (say, $5m instead of $10m), the lower the "real" net savings of switching to a VII is going to be (if we all agree that VIIs halve every cost, they only save 50% of whatever we agree is the "real" cost of a Heritage diner. I accept Amtrak's number of $10m and if 50% savings are out there, then that's $5m to be saved. But if we're persuaded that the "real" GAAP cost of a Heritage was, say, $5m, then the real GAAP savings of VIIs being 50% less is only $2.5m) This is a classic case of the lower costs on diners turn out to be, the lower the benefit of switching to a "half cost" diner turn out.
How wrong could be be if we swagged the costs of a diner at
1/3 labor (& ben & comp time),
1/3 food (procurement, supply chain, shrinkage, spoilage, and garbage/diposal/cleanup),
1/6 utils & HEP
1/6 haulage & maintenance
You can squeeze these each a little on a VII, but you're not going to get anywhere close to paying for diner-restoration with just $1m in increased fares (we can that going back to the Star's old higher-fare lower-occupancy model would put revenues back to "where they were")