Amtrak in Transition

[ThirdRail7]

Before they even get to the western routes or the Auto Train I think consideration would be given to bringing back the Florida "super trains" that used to run at this time of year with consists close to or in excess of 20 cars. We could see a return of trains with multiple dining cars and six, seven or even eight sleeper cars. Trains of this size would also likely require multiple baggage cars or baggage-dorms.

20+ cars? I'm sure that such consists ran before A-Day, but I've been watching the Florida trains pass through Alexandria for over 20 years, and while in the late '80's and early '90's (ie, pre standardized consists), the trains were significantly longer than now, I don't recall any that long. How many places would you need to double or triple stop with a consist that long? I don't think even the long SB platform at Alexandria could accomodate a train of that length. And that platform is about as long as you're going to find. Indeed, even the current Florida trains and the Crescent have to make two stops at the NB platform in Alexandria. I suspect that's true at lot of locations in both directions, especially as the usable portions of even older platforms are now often much shorter than in heritage days. With 20 or more cars, station dwell times would increase significantly. I agree that the east coast market is one Amtrak should seek to exploit, given the economic advantage of having multiple frequencies all the way to FL, but I'd look to add another frequency before I increased train length to 20 cars.

I would add the trains were longer in the 90s because the cars didn't have the same capacity as the new fleet. The heritage fleet sat 40 people. An AMII handles 60(really 59.) You'd need 3 Heritage cars to handle what 2 AM11 handles. A lot of the trains in the 90s still had the cafeteria cars along with the lounge and dining cars since if you recall, most trains split at some point. This also added to train length since you needed another baggage car and you could have mail at each end.

Some trains made double stops and some followed a loading plan that only caused one stop. Dwell time wouldn't be any greater than it was in the past particularly since the time consuming mail work is no more.

[Greg Moore]

That said, while operationally more of a nightmare, I'd rather see 4 12 car trains (just to toss out an example length) than 3 16 car trains.

At major stations, you give folks far more flexibility.

And then you can skip-stop the smaller stations and actually have more stops overall even if not every train stops at every stop.

So for example, if the equipment became available and the operational issues could be overcome, I'd rather see a re-extended Palmetto than simply increasing the length of the existing Silver Service trains.

[chrsjrcj]

If I'm not mistaken, before A-Day it was railroads would sometimes operate multiple sections of the same train. Today, I'd think increased frequencies would be the answer. Perhaps a Ny to Florida schedule similar to the one in 2004 before the Palmetto was (idiotically) cut to Savannah.

Leaving Miami, the Meteor would leave in the morning, the Star around midday, and the Silver Palm/Palmetto (depending on the year*) left in the early evening.
Arriving Miami, the Palmetto would arrive in the morning, the Star in the afternoon, and the Meteor in the evening. The Meteor also left NYP around 7 pm, instead of the current 3 pm.

*When the Palmetto had sleeping cars, it was called the Silver Palm. When the sleeping car was dropped shortly before it got shortened to Savannah, the name changed back to Palmetto.

[afiggatt]

If I'm not mistaken, before A-Day it was railroads would sometimes operate multiple sections of the same train. Today, I'd think increased frequencies would be the answer. Perhaps a Ny to Florida schedule similar to the one in 2004 before the Palmetto was (idiotically) cut to Savannah.

Leaving Miami, the Meteor would leave in the morning, the Star around midday, and the Silver Palm/Palmetto (depending on the year*) left in the early evening.
Arriving Miami, the Palmetto would arrive in the morning, the Star in the afternoon, and the Meteor in the evening. The Meteor also left NYP around 7 pm, instead of the current 3 pm.

*When the Palmetto had sleeping cars, it was called the Silver Palm. When the sleeping car was dropped shortly before it got shortened to Savannah, the name changed back to Palmetto.

The Silver Palm was truncated to the Palmetto for lack of equipment and I assume to cut financial losses. I personally think that a Silver Palm/Palmetto that departs NYP a little later in the morning (yes, there are slot and capacity constraints for NYP and Northern NJ that are an issue for that) so it would arrive at Savannah at ~10 PM, Jacksonville circa 12:30 AM, sits in JAX for a bit, then runs down the FEC to southern FL with a early morning arrival in Miami could work. Yes, it would skip Orlando and central FL stops, but it would be hitting those in the pre-dawn AM hours. yes, then depart Miami in the early evening to match up to the current Palmetto SAV-NYP daytime hours. But Amtrak probably has no plans to even consider this. For starters, more LD coach cars and probably a couple of additional bag-dorm, diner, 2 sleeper sets to support it.

The major issue is that the Palmetto had the smallest total allocated loss of the LD trains at $11.5 million in FY12. If Amtrak were to extend it to Miami with sleepers and a diner car, the Silver Palm might run an annual loss in the range of the Meteor which was $38.7 million in FY12. With Congress trimming the annual operating subsidy and putting pressure on Amtrak to reduce total operating loss, there is no room to do anything big that adds to the net loss. If the federal operating subsidy stabilizes after the states are all paying for the corridor services, say at $350 million a year, and the losses are reduced for the single level LD trains due in part to new equipment, then Amtrak could be in a position to restore/expand eastern LD train service. However, the total fully allocated FY12 loss for the 15 LD trains was $600 million in the September 2012 monthly report. That is the reality for many of the ideas posted here for this or that change for the LD trains.

[gokeefe]

So for example, if the equipment became available and the operational issues could be overcome, I'd rather see a re-extended Palmetto than simply increasing the length of the existing Silver Service trains.

I would agree with that option as well. However, since adding a new route or an entirely new frequency is likely out of the question I remain an advocate of first "filling out" the Silver Service as described. Perhaps, in the best of days, Amtrak could in fact consider a restored Champion over the FEC. But that doesn't appear to be "in the cards" just yet.

[gokeefe]

The major issue is that the Palmetto had the smallest total allocated loss of the LD trains at $11.5 million in FY12. If Amtrak were to extend it to Miami with sleepers and a diner car, the Silver Palm might run an annual loss in the range of the Meteor which was $38.7 million in FY12.

That would only be the case if they aren't able to sell the new capacity. This service configuration has never been tested in the "new" era that we find ourselves in where Amtrak is suddenly able to fill trains. Flexible consist management practices that move capacity around the system to follow seasonal demand have the real potential to bring major growth opportunities to the Long Distance services the likes of which many of us haven't seen in our lifetimes.

With Congress trimming the annual operating subsidy and putting pressure on Amtrak to reduce total operating loss, there is no room to do anything big that adds to the net loss. If the federal operating subsidy stabilizes after the states are all paying for the corridor services, say at $350 million a year, and the losses are reduced for the single level LD trains due in part to new equipment, then Amtrak could be in a position to restore/expand eastern LD train service. However, the total fully allocated FY12 loss for the 15 LD trains was $600 million in the September 2012 monthly report. That is the reality for many of the ideas posted here for this or that change for the LD trains.

I could not agree more. Consequently the need to add capacity to the Silver Service trains when demand warrants it. They've got to be able to make money on these trains during the times of the year when people travel most on these routes. Fixed capacity management practices are severely exacerbating losses that could be substantially minimized if Amtrak had the available rolling stock to mitigate the losses.

[gokeefe]

As for $7M for refurbs, ouch. That's more than I would have guessed.

It's a SWAG in my part that has no basis in anything else other than my perception that Amtrak would be putting something in the range of 500-1000 man hours into an overhaul along with custom parts and fabrication.

I'll give your SWAG some respect.

1000 man hours doesn't sound entirely unreasonable when you think about it.

Since you two aren't batting an eye at the 1000 man hours (although fabrication probably comes into play with anything Heritage), perhaps you can tell and/or link us to what this "overhaul" will consist of.

Absolutely no idea. Completely guessing in the dark based on a rate of production that seems to indicate that it takes a few weeks to process these cars through an overhaul. If you can provide further information on this we'd love to know, but I have a hard to imagining that an "overhaul" is much more than a glorified PM.

On another note, I predict that some states will not be able to cover the costs associated with the new formula and start looking for ways to bring in another carrier, cancel service or reduce service. This will lead to extra equipment being available to those who want it and can afford it. We may see the end to some of the service as we know it, but we may see the beginning or resurrection of other services that were imagined (like the Greenfield service or the Montrealer.)

Is there anything to the south of the NEC that you think might be considered?

[jstolberg]

As for $7M for refurbs, ouch. That's more than I would have guessed.

It's a SWAG in my part that has no basis in anything else other than my perception that Amtrak would be putting something in the range of 500-1000 man hours into an overhaul along with custom parts and fabrication.

Not a bad guess. Just cut it in half. The 2013 budget request had a line item of $3.6 million for Heritage Diner Overhauls. http://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/338/576/Amt ... w-appx.pdf page 95

[gokeefe]

As for $7M for refurbs, ouch. That's more than I would have guessed.

It's a SWAG in my part that has no basis in anything else other than my perception that Amtrak would be putting something in the range of 500-1000 man hours into an overhaul along with custom parts and fabrication.

Not a bad guess. Just cut it in half. The 2013 budget request had a line item of $3.6 million for Heritage Diner Overhauls. http://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/338/576/Amt ... w-appx.pdf page 95

I'm impressed that they're able to do anything of substance on these cars for less than $1M/unit.

[gokeefe]

Messrs. O'Keefe and Afficiando, from "back in my day":

Consists:

Florida Special 1962

Florida Special 1967

Silver Meteor East Coast Champion 1962

Thank you Mr. Norman!

On this issue I think if Amtrak sees an opening I strongly believe they will take it. They're leaving money on the table for no good reason from January - April with their Silver Service. They would have other options in the summer, and yes some of them could potentially go as far as Maine if they really got creative.

[jstolberg]

As we consider American's changing travel habits, I offer data on commuting from some counties in Maryland, DC and Virginia with significant changes. The comparison is between census data collected in 2000 and American Community Survey data collected from 2006 to 2010.

District of Columbia
Workers +12%
Drove alone +5%
Public transit +30%
Bicycle +116%
Work at home +37%

Charles Co. MD
Workers +21%
Drove alone +21%
Public Transit +236%

Montgomery Co. MD
Workers +10%
Drove alone +4%
Public transit +32%
Bicycle +44%
Walked +22%
Work at home +22%

Prince Georges Co. MD
Workers +32%
Drove alone +29%
Transit +135%
Walked +89%
Work at home +76%

Alexandria city, VA
Workers +9%
Drove alone +5%
Transit +52%
Bicycle +78%

Arlington Co. VA
Workers +10%
Drove alone +6%
Transit +32%
Bicycle +51%
Work at home +58%

Fairfax Co. VA
Workers +8%
Drove alone +6%
Transit +35%
Bicycle +108%
Walked +51%
Work at home +22%

Spotsylvania Co. VA
Workers +27%
Drove alone +25%
Transit +122%
Bicycle +405%
Work at home +37%
http://download.ctpp.transportation.org ... files.html

[gokeefe]

As we consider American's changing travel habits, I offer data on commuting from some counties in Maryland, DC and Virginia with significant changes. The comparison is between census data collected in 2000 and American Community Survey data collected from 2006 to 2010.

The big initiative with Amtrak over the next 10-20 years in this regard may be making some of their trains as bicycle friendly as those that run in Europe. Given the current model this could be quite tricky as bicycle racks take up a lot of space, require baggage cars and additional staff time as well.

[george matthews]

As we consider American's changing travel habits, I offer data on commuting from some counties in Maryland, DC and Virginia with significant changes. The comparison is between census data collected in 2000 and American Community Survey data collected from 2006 to 2010.

The big initiative with Amtrak over the next 10-20 years in this regard may be making some of their trains as bicycle friendly as those that run in Europe. Given the current model this could be quite tricky as bicycle racks take up a lot of space, require baggage cars and additional staff time as well.

Folding (or fold-up) bikes take up less space. They could be offered a lower fee.

[gokeefe]

As we consider American's changing travel habits, I offer data on commuting from some counties in Maryland, DC and Virginia with significant changes. The comparison is between census data collected in 2000 and American Community Survey data collected from 2006 to 2010.

The big initiative with Amtrak over the next 10-20 years in this regard may be making some of their trains as bicycle friendly as those that run in Europe. Given the current model this could be quite tricky as bicycle racks take up a lot of space, require baggage cars and additional staff time as well.

Folding (or fold-up) bikes take up less space. They could be offered a lower fee.

Possibly, but I'm pretty sure they would still have to be secured. As Amtrak would be unlikely to pay to have two separate kinds of bike racks installed (one for folding bikes, which would be smaller and the other for conventional frame bikes which would be larger) I doubt the above would be feasible.

Perhaps the absolute most important step to get Amtrak to take would be provision of space for bicycles on as many of their trains as possible. The big breakthrough in this regard would be to have them do this on the Northeast Regionals but of course these trains do not currently have baggage cars and they are very time sensitive as well.

The DB uses much the same approach, they provide space for bicycles on their Interegio-Express (IRE), Regional-Express (RE), Regionalbahn (RB), and of course the "S-bahn" (long short for "Stadt Bahn" (City Train) which are usually operated with articulated EMU trainsets and designed for commuter and intra-area travel.

Perhaps the equivalent in America would be the Federal Transit Administration requiring that all rail and bus programs make provision for bicycle transportation. This would ensure all subways, commuter trains and buses in the U.S. would eventually be bicycle friendly.

[lirr42]

Folding bikes, when folded, have a much more compact footprint and could be treated as ordinary carry-on luggage stowable on the overhead racks just like a large duffel bag. I have a foldable bike I bring on the train to work most days, it folds right up and goes on the overhead rack no problem. I don't need a LIRR bike permit (even though I have one for my regular bike) and I can take the folding bike on all trains, including peak ones (unlike regular bikes, which are banned from peak trains).