mtuandrew wrote:Connor: hard to justify a cross-harbor rail tunnel for 4x/day, or even 16x/day if we add commuter rail. Until we surpass (say) 30x/day, fast ferries become a far better option, with fast LRT in the future. I kind of grudgingly like the VaDRPT plan (assuming we have more than 4 frequencies), since it catches Suffolk too. Our proposals don't do that, except for commuter rail or rapid transit which we haven't discussed.I agree it's hard to justify for 4 a day, which is why I've proposed using it for regional service as well (your 16 a day). But honestly, 20 round trips a day, or 40 trains total, isn't exactly poor utilization. I've also mentioned the possibility of freight service to additionally offset the cost, but I recognize that's not really practical. Plus I could easily see service growing beyond those levels. VADRPT has always planned to add more Hampton Roads trains - Norfolk is already planned to get 3, for example. And if you then end up with 6 trains that serve Newport News AND Norfolk, that would potentially stimulate enough ridership to possibly warrant additional frequencies. VADRPT has also talked about intra-Virginia trains before, after all. I could see Hampton Roads - Richmond - DC becoming a corridor of its own. HRT would also eventually ramp up to more than 16 frequencies, I'd imagine. There is tremendous demand for travel across Hampton Roads - maybe if this tunnel gets built, Va Beach will finally bite the bullet on rail service (it is Virginia's largest city, after all!), and will do it to support commuter rail rather than light rail - that opens the door to forking service to both Norfolk and Va Beach, which would be very exciting, because one of the biggest commute patterns in Hampton Roads is from Va Beach to the Naval Base.
I disagree about fast ferries being an option though, and I've explained why before - there's nothing really going on on the waterfronts on the Peninsula (except in Hampton), and ferries can't proceed inland to where people want to go - trains could. Additionally, with Norfolk being fairly far upstream on the Elizabeth, ferries would take too long to be practical. I know you mentioned fast ferries, and I know such things exist, but they are expensive, and they are still limited to maritime speed limits. I'm sure they could chug along at full speed while out in Hampton Roads, but what about on the Elizabeth, past the Naval Base, then Lamberts and Pinners Points? I'm pretty sure a fast ferry would generate too much of a wake going at full speed up the Elizabeth. And where would it go on the Peninsula? If you go to downtown Hampton (more slow speed river running), then anybody going to Newport News has to transfer to a bus, train, etc. And if you go to downtown Newport News, well, there's nowhere to put a ferry dock within walking distance of ANYTHING of interest, meaning everyone would have to transfer. So using fast ferries, almost every potential rider's trip would involve transferring between modes, which always suppresses potential ridership. Hampton Roads Transit already runs ferries between Norfolk and Portsmouth, which themselves take 15 minutes to go the 3,000 ft from Waterside to High St, and as such are poorly utilized (even with free parking on the Portsmouth side!), carrying only <800 daily passengers.
I have discussed including commuter rail and rapid transit. I've mentioned the VADRPT plan for commuter rail multiple times, saying a tunnel would benefit those lines by allowing run-through service. If commuter rail ran from Suffolk to Norfolk to Newport News to Williamsburg, then Suffolk-Norfolk and Norfolk-Newport News passengers wouldn't overlap, and would both have direct rides. You're not going to convince many people in Newport News to travel to Norfolk via Suffolk. If you'd be crossing the James anyway, why not do it in a manner that would draw the greatest ridership possible? I've mentioned consistently my desire to see local/regional rail service.
I am willing to concede that the VADRPT map posted would still be beneficial for the region because it would consolidate Amtrak service to one line, and connect Newport News and Norfolk via rail. I just have a harder time justifying the bridge across the James because such a route would have minimal usefulness for local service. Suffolk is far out of the way, and a big enough draw to warrant Suffolk-Norfolk trains, but not a big enough draw for Amtrak (note that the current NFK train skips Suffolk). A via-Suffolk line would run through miles of mostly rural area, far out of the way, while skipping Hampton (pop. 140,000) and the rest of Norfolk (Naval Base, ODU). In order for this crossing to be worth the cost it needs to have tremendous local benefit, and I just don't see that with a via-Suffolk route.
Station Aficionado wrote:From a purely intercity/Amtrak perspective, Ron's point is well taken. There is only so much money available for intercity rail in Virginia. A bridge or tunnel to bring Amtrak from Newport News to Norfolk would be way down on the priority list. Between what exists now and already planned improvements (IIRC, the state wants 3x to Newport News and 3x (or is it 6x) to Norfolk. Since those trains all go on to DC and New York, the incremental improvement from direct NPN-Norfolk service would be minimal (only additional city pairs would be Norfolk-NPN and Norfolk-Williamsburg, while losing Norfolk-Petersburg). And the current trains are already well patronized. There simply is a not a significant benefit to justify the cost for intercity trains. Another instance, I think, where we shouldn't try to make the perfect the enemy of the good.The additional city pairs aren't the point - the point is that this would DOUBLE the frequencies to BOTH NFK and NPN. The trains already being well-patronized indicates that there is plenty of demand. Imagine how much more full they'd be if there were 6 instead of 3 trains to each city?
I'm also not sure why it'd be so far down on the state's priority list... Hampton Roads is home to 1.8 million of the state's 8.3 million people (that's 22% of the state's population). The only other projects that should be this high of priority are DC-Richmond improvements (incl. Long Bridge), and maybe SEHSR toward NC (though that's harder to justify from VADRPT's perspective, because it would mainly bring people from Atlanta and NC to DC and the Northeast Corridor, just passing through VA). I certainly think it would serve more people than, for example, a Regional to Bristol, which some people on this board seem to be obsessed with the idea of.
Finally, I've admitted multiple times that intercity trains alone don't justify it, which is why I'm pushing for a route that also provides immense benefits for local/regional service, serving NPN, Hampton, NS Norfolk, and NFK, with potentials for run-through commuter rail service to Williamsburg, Suffolk, Chesapeake, or Va Beach. Meaning Amtrak would be interested because it would double service to both NPN and NFK (which also has benefits we haven't even touched on, like combining layovers, staffing, etc. to one location), VADRPT would be interested because it would create an excellent intrastate corridor, and HRT would be interested because it would connect most major destinations in Hampton Roads. That right there is 3 agencies with vested interests who could all contribute to funding.
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My apologies if this post comes across as stubbornly defensive, I just really, really like this idea, and think it would be fantastic for Hampton Roads. And I enjoy debating the merits of it.
Call me Connor or DTP
Railfan & Roadgeek from the North Shore of Mass.
Railfan & Roadgeek from the North Shore of Mass.