Hampton Roads/Norfolk/Newport News NE Regional Service

[deathtopumpkins]

Connor: hard to justify a cross-harbor rail tunnel for 4x/day, or even 16x/day if we add commuter rail. Until we surpass (say) 30x/day, fast ferries become a far better option, with fast LRT in the future. I kind of grudgingly like the VaDRPT plan (assuming we have more than 4 frequencies), since it catches Suffolk too. Our proposals don't do that, except for commuter rail or rapid transit which we haven't discussed.

I agree it's hard to justify for 4 a day, which is why I've proposed using it for regional service as well (your 16 a day). But honestly, 20 round trips a day, or 40 trains total, isn't exactly poor utilization. I've also mentioned the possibility of freight service to additionally offset the cost, but I recognize that's not really practical. Plus I could easily see service growing beyond those levels. VADRPT has always planned to add more Hampton Roads trains - Norfolk is already planned to get 3, for example. And if you then end up with 6 trains that serve Newport News AND Norfolk, that would potentially stimulate enough ridership to possibly warrant additional frequencies. VADRPT has also talked about intra-Virginia trains before, after all. I could see Hampton Roads - Richmond - DC becoming a corridor of its own. HRT would also eventually ramp up to more than 16 frequencies, I'd imagine. There is tremendous demand for travel across Hampton Roads - maybe if this tunnel gets built, Va Beach will finally bite the bullet on rail service (it is Virginia's largest city, after all!), and will do it to support commuter rail rather than light rail - that opens the door to forking service to both Norfolk and Va Beach, which would be very exciting, because one of the biggest commute patterns in Hampton Roads is from Va Beach to the Naval Base.

I disagree about fast ferries being an option though, and I've explained why before - there's nothing really going on on the waterfronts on the Peninsula (except in Hampton), and ferries can't proceed inland to where people want to go - trains could. Additionally, with Norfolk being fairly far upstream on the Elizabeth, ferries would take too long to be practical. I know you mentioned fast ferries, and I know such things exist, but they are expensive, and they are still limited to maritime speed limits. I'm sure they could chug along at full speed while out in Hampton Roads, but what about on the Elizabeth, past the Naval Base, then Lamberts and Pinners Points? I'm pretty sure a fast ferry would generate too much of a wake going at full speed up the Elizabeth. And where would it go on the Peninsula? If you go to downtown Hampton (more slow speed river running), then anybody going to Newport News has to transfer to a bus, train, etc. And if you go to downtown Newport News, well, there's nowhere to put a ferry dock within walking distance of ANYTHING of interest, meaning everyone would have to transfer. So using fast ferries, almost every potential rider's trip would involve transferring between modes, which always suppresses potential ridership. Hampton Roads Transit already runs ferries between Norfolk and Portsmouth, which themselves take 15 minutes to go the 3,000 ft from Waterside to High St, and as such are poorly utilized (even with free parking on the Portsmouth side!), carrying only <800 daily passengers.

I have discussed including commuter rail and rapid transit. I've mentioned the VADRPT plan for commuter rail multiple times, saying a tunnel would benefit those lines by allowing run-through service. If commuter rail ran from Suffolk to Norfolk to Newport News to Williamsburg, then Suffolk-Norfolk and Norfolk-Newport News passengers wouldn't overlap, and would both have direct rides. You're not going to convince many people in Newport News to travel to Norfolk via Suffolk. If you'd be crossing the James anyway, why not do it in a manner that would draw the greatest ridership possible? I've mentioned consistently my desire to see local/regional rail service.

I am willing to concede that the VADRPT map posted would still be beneficial for the region because it would consolidate Amtrak service to one line, and connect Newport News and Norfolk via rail. I just have a harder time justifying the bridge across the James because such a route would have minimal usefulness for local service. Suffolk is far out of the way, and a big enough draw to warrant Suffolk-Norfolk trains, but not a big enough draw for Amtrak (note that the current NFK train skips Suffolk). A via-Suffolk line would run through miles of mostly rural area, far out of the way, while skipping Hampton (pop. 140,000) and the rest of Norfolk (Naval Base, ODU). In order for this crossing to be worth the cost it needs to have tremendous local benefit, and I just don't see that with a via-Suffolk route.

From a purely intercity/Amtrak perspective, Ron's point is well taken. There is only so much money available for intercity rail in Virginia. A bridge or tunnel to bring Amtrak from Newport News to Norfolk would be way down on the priority list. Between what exists now and already planned improvements (IIRC, the state wants 3x to Newport News and 3x (or is it 6x) to Norfolk. Since those trains all go on to DC and New York, the incremental improvement from direct NPN-Norfolk service would be minimal (only additional city pairs would be Norfolk-NPN and Norfolk-Williamsburg, while losing Norfolk-Petersburg). And the current trains are already well patronized. There simply is a not a significant benefit to justify the cost for intercity trains. Another instance, I think, where we shouldn't try to make the perfect the enemy of the good.

The additional city pairs aren't the point - the point is that this would DOUBLE the frequencies to BOTH NFK and NPN. The trains already being well-patronized indicates that there is plenty of demand. Imagine how much more full they'd be if there were 6 instead of 3 trains to each city?
I'm also not sure why it'd be so far down on the state's priority list... Hampton Roads is home to 1.8 million of the state's 8.3 million people (that's 22% of the state's population). The only other projects that should be this high of priority are DC-Richmond improvements (incl. Long Bridge), and maybe SEHSR toward NC (though that's harder to justify from VADRPT's perspective, because it would mainly bring people from Atlanta and NC to DC and the Northeast Corridor, just passing through VA). I certainly think it would serve more people than, for example, a Regional to Bristol, which some people on this board seem to be obsessed with the idea of.

Finally, I've admitted multiple times that intercity trains alone don't justify it, which is why I'm pushing for a route that also provides immense benefits for local/regional service, serving NPN, Hampton, NS Norfolk, and NFK, with potentials for run-through commuter rail service to Williamsburg, Suffolk, Chesapeake, or Va Beach. Meaning Amtrak would be interested because it would double service to both NPN and NFK (which also has benefits we haven't even touched on, like combining layovers, staffing, etc. to one location), VADRPT would be interested because it would create an excellent intrastate corridor, and HRT would be interested because it would connect most major destinations in Hampton Roads. That right there is 3 agencies with vested interests who could all contribute to funding.

--

My apologies if this post comes across as stubbornly defensive, I just really, really like this idea, and think it would be fantastic for Hampton Roads. And I enjoy debating the merits of it.

[electricron]

I did write the James River Bridge proposal was interesting. Six round trips per day is twelve intercity trains, not six because there will be a trains in both directions. Never-the-less, it isn't enough to justify.

Just that additional number of intercity trains on the existing infrastructure may be too many trains. Have Norfolk Southern and CSX agreed to the extra passenger trains? Have they agreed to commuter trains running on their property over their tracks? Amy planning assuming they will allow is a waste of money, at least get them to agree to it first. They are going to want to run freight trains over the new bridge or through the new tunnel, some sort of agreement from all parties will be needed over its use as well. That's why the existing intercity service arrangement works, they have already agreed to it.

A non-FRA compliant train, a true metro or light rail, over or through the new bridge and tunnel avoids the freight railroads use of it, avoid all the complications that will arise from that. A new metro or light rail line doesn't have to be ran over their rail corridors, it can be ran completely off their corridors on city streets or in medians of divided highways, or in completely new corridors. They can't be held hostage by the freight railroad companies, and your proposal involves working with two of them.

Lone Star Rail, a proposed commuter train service between San Antonio and Austin hoped to use the existing UP owned rail corridor, is dying because UP has deduced not to share its corridor with them although Amtrak uses it. Millions of dollars have been spend by planners, all of which wasted on a project that's not going to be built. I suggest it's best to get an ironclad agreement on paper first before spending much on planning any commuter rail lines on existing freight railroad tracks.

[deathtopumpkins]

Just that additional number of intercity trains on the existing infrastructure may be too many trains. Have Norfolk Southern and CSX agreed to the extra passenger trains? Have they agreed to commuter trains running on their property over their tracks? Amy planning assuming they will allow is a waste of money, at least get them to agree to it first. They are going to want to run freight trains over the new bridge or through the new tunnel, some sort of agreement from all parties will be needed over its use as well. That's why the existing intercity service arrangement works, they have already agreed to it.

I completely disagree. You absolutely do need to plan before you approach the host railroads, so they know what you're asking them for. It sounds to me like you'e saying that VADRPT's plans for commuter rail to Williamsburg, Suffolk, and Chesapeake are a waste of money.
As for the freight railroads wanting to run trains over the new crossing, would they really? I mentioned the idea of that previously in this discussion and it was shot down.

A non-FRA compliant train, a true metro or light rail, over or through the new bridge and tunnel avoids the freight railroads use of it, avoid all the complications that will arise from that. A new metro or light rail line doesn't have to be ran over their rail corridors, it can be ran completely off their corridors on city streets or in medians of divided highways, or in completely new corridors. They can't be held hostage by the freight railroad companies, and your proposal involves working with two of them.

Well, if it really becomes too much of an issue to share tracks with NS or CSX, that can be gotten around:
-The Peninsula sub could easily fit one or two more tracks in the ROW.
-CSX's Hampton spur is very lightly-used, with only two remaining customers, IIRC. They'd likely be very willing to sell to VADRPT as long as they could retain nighttime track access at the very least for those customers. This is a common arrangement that has been used many times in recent years for new commuter rail services. And Class I's have demonstrated that they are VERY willing to shed local branch lines to reduce their property tax burden - look at CSX in MA for example.
-The NIT spur also has plenty of room for additional tracks, given that it shares a ROW with I-564.
-South of Wards Corner, the NS line is double-tracked. This might be a bit of a bottleneck, but I'm sure VADRPT and NS could work it out - it's far from the most congested freight line in the country that also hosts commuter rail. NS might even be willing to shed ownership of this line like they did from Wards Corner to NIT (to NPBL, likely via state ownership).
-South of the Bay Colony junction, which is where my proposal veers off toward downtown Norfolk, the ROW is owned by NS, but except for whatever facility is along St Julian Ave, the line is very much out-of-service. This is one I'm sure they could be persuaded to part with.
-This gets you to about 1 mile away from Norfolk's existing Harbor Park Amtrak station. This is probably the hardest bottleneck to solve, given that this 1 mile is NS's route to the Lamberts Point coal terminal, but 1) coal is down right now, and 2) the ROW again looks wide enough for additional tracks. In fact, both of the road underpasses are wide enough for 4 tracks on top, so you could just build alongside NS.

Essentially all of my proposed route is either new ROW (Hampton to NS Norfolk), uses lightly-used branchlines, or mainline ROWs that have space for additional tracks. Admittedly, the freight roads could still hold VADRT hostage, but I don't see this being any more difficult than anywhere else freight ROWs have been repurposed.

Lone Star Rail, a proposed commuter train service between San Antonio and Austin hoped to use the existing UP owned rail corridor, is dying because UP has deduced not to share its corridor with them although Amtrak uses it. Millions of dollars have been spend by planners, all of which wasted on a project that's not going to be built. I suggest it's best to get an ironclad agreement on paper first before spending much on planning any commuter rail lines on existing freight railroad tracks.

True, freight railroads can say no. But I don't see any constraints here that would reasonably prevent CSX or NS from being bought off by VADRPT.

I really don't think this idea has to be a non-starter just because of sharing ROW with CSX and NS.

[mtuandrew]

Not a non-starter at all - especially considering that CSX was willing to take State of Virginia money for a third track for commuter and regional rail on the RF&P Sub south of Washington. I'm still having trouble with how to create the kind of train density warranted for such a big project though, unless CSX decides they want to sign onto a NPN-Craneys tunnel/bridge.

Shame on me for bringing this all up

[Arlington]

DC2RVA planning advances with official endorsement of high(er) speed service terminating at Main St, Richmond.
http://richmondmagazine.com/news/news/rail-plan/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://wtop.com/sprawl-crawl/2016/12/ne ... -richmond/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Costing $5 billion in 2025 dollars, the federal government has already granted funding for some of the projects.

In Northern Virginia, an additional third or fourth track would cost just under $2 billion.
In Arlington, the connection to the future Long Bridge replacement is projected to cost $36 to $47 million.
In Fredericksburg, the third track through the city would cost about $493 million.
In Richmond, the changes and improvements could cost about $1.4 billion.
A third track through central Virginia would cost about $643 million.

[BAR]

Five billion in 2025 dollars? How is the value of a U.S. dollar nine years in the future determined?

[bdawe]

Inflation is targeted for 2% per year by the Federal Reserve

[Hawaiitiki]

DC2RVA planning advances with official endorsement of high(er) speed service terminating at Main St, Richmond.
http://richmondmagazine.com/news/news/rail-plan/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://wtop.com/sprawl-crawl/2016/12/ne ... -richmond/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Costing $5 billion in 2025 dollars, the federal government has already granted funding for some of the projects.

In Northern Virginia, an additional third or fourth track would cost just under $2 billion.
In Arlington, the connection to the future Long Bridge replacement is projected to cost $36 to $47 million.
In Fredericksburg, the third track through the city would cost about $493 million.
In Richmond, the changes and improvements could cost about $1.4 billion.
A third track through central Virginia would cost about $643 million.

Can't come soon enough. The corridor between Richmond and DC is one of the most horrendous auto routes to drive in the country that really doesn't have a viable rail option e.g. slow speeds, poor frequency, poor station locations, 1 hour layovers in DC....that plague this route. My brother lived in Richmond for two years and attended William and Mary four years before it, and I would often pay out the arse for a flight to visit just to avoid that stretch of highway. 24 hours a day Northern Virginia traffic is the worst I've ever experienced.

[Matt Johnson]

Can't come soon enough. The corridor between Richmond and DC is one of the most horrendous auto routes to drive in the country that really doesn't have a viable rail option e.g. slow speeds, poor frequency, poor station locations, 1 hour layovers in DC....that plague this route. My brother lived in Richmond for two years and attended William and Mary four years before it, and I would often pay out the arse for a flight to visit just to avoid that stretch of highway. 24 hours a day Northern Virginia traffic is the worst I've ever experienced.

I got rear ended in heavy traffic on I-95 driving from Williamsburg to NJ last year so yeah, I'm with you there!

[Backshophoss]

No mater what is done to "improve" I-95 thru that streach from DC to south of Richmond,only makes it worse,not better.
That streach is just a car magnet,period!
Now If VRE were allowed to run commuter service Richmond-DC ,that could help over the long term.

[mtuandrew]

Hoss: it sure would! VRE is already over halfway to Richmond from DC. Maybe Richmond-area voters can get their transit authority some more money to extend the service a little more.

[electricron]

100% more isn't just a little tiny bit more. It's a whole lot more more.
The citizens of Richmond would be far better served with a local transit project, not one joining the VRE connecting commuters within Richmond to D.C.
Golly, does anyone commute that far anyways?
It's around 123 miles, that's 25% longer than the distance between NYC and Philadelphia, which is about 95 miles.

I'm not suggesting more trains between Richmond and D.C. aren't needed, or that I-95 isn't congested most of the time, just that locally funded commuter rail for this long a corridor isn't the ideal solution.

[Arlington]

At some point we will see DC-Richmond "infill' service to accommodate a mix of Richmond-bound daily commuters, DC-bound super-commuters, and the kind that mostly work at home but make an in-person trip once or twice a week. End-to-end trips would be a small part of demand, but all the half and 3/4 trips will add up to good demand.

Same will happen DC-Charlottesville and maybe on the same planning horizon: Charlottesville is smaller but traffic on US-29 is worse.

[mtuandrew]

Arlington: come to think of it, that is exactly what Amtrak is here to do. Kind of embarrassed I dismissed them in favor of what I've called "glorified schoolbuses", haha. (But if I can get to Richmond without having the high price or relatively low frequency of current extended Amtrak Regionals, sign me up for school!)

[Arlington]

I really wish Virginia would invest more at Alexandria (Amtrak-Metro underpass pedestrian tunnel), and/or a National Airport - Crystal City Metro-VRE superstation, either of which would be strong terminals for purely-within-Virginia trips that need not go across the Long Bridge.