Capacity Management/Revenue Enhancement

[gokeefe]

I remember once hearing from an retired Amtrak employee who told me about various "experiments" that were tried; one of them was an auxiliary CAT generator that would be placed what usually is the baggage room on the lower level of a Superliner that would of provided more power for HEP use. He said this was tried shortly after the Superliner was introduced but it had issues as the power management system used didn't exactly work right and sometimes caused the entire HEP voltage to vary up to 20%.

modern inverter based gen sets should be able to synch in and provide exactly the same power as the hep supply . if , anything they would stabilise it .
But as i have said many times on here , i'm 100% sure its not really necessary , if Amtrak couldnt find ways to improve their current onboard power use by 20 -50 % , i'd eat my solar hat . That would be way more cost effective .

Discussion regarding the use of LED lights on the Viewliner Diner has indicated that power consumption in that area at least is much lower. However, I would think the HVAC load is much larger than the load for lights.

[David Benton]

Yes , it would be . i know for sure the superliner based hvac system is very inefficent . uses elements for heat , rather than a reverse cycle heat pump . so that part of it could become up to 3 times more efficient . Its just a matter of the age of the equipment , any hvac system pre say 1990 should be able to be made at least 30 % more efficient .

[gokeefe]

Yes , it would be . i know for sure the superliner based hvac system is very inefficent . uses elements for heat , rather than a reverse cycle heat pump . so that part of it could become up to 3 times more efficient . Its just a matter of the age of the equipment , any hvac system pre say 1990 should be able to be made at least 30 % more efficient .

I completely agree that heating elements are inefficient but I am not in the least bit convinced that a reverse cycle heat pump could handle the operating conditions experienced by the Empire Builder in North Dakota and Montana. I have lived in situations where we were dependent on reverse cycle heat pumps and they simply couldn't keep up once the temperatures went to about 20F (and stayed there). I don't think there were design issues either. The space they were heating was very small and we had to leave the unit running on max power all day long just to maintain 65F (at best). Then we had to deal with the constant defrost cycles as well.

[David Benton]

ah , yes , that is the problem with heat pumps . you cant extract heat from something that is frozen . So on the trains such as the builder , some heating by resistance may be necessary .but i 'm sure it could be reduced from what is used now .

[gokeefe]

ah , yes , that is the problem with heat pumps . you cant extract heat from something that is frozen . So on the trains such as the builder , some heating by resistance may be necessary .but i 'm sure it could be reduced from what is used now .

I would think so but I have no idea how without having to install a whole new system.

[gokeefe]

From the Amtrak Success Stories thread:

It should be noted that while waiting for the April 2013 monthly report to be posted, that Amtrak has posted 3 new documents on the Reports & Documents page under Comprehensive Business Plan: revised FY13 budget, FY14 budget request justification, and FY13-FY17 Five Year Financial Plan. There is a significant amount of material and discussions in the documents on plans & projected budgets for the next 4 years that is worth reading. Plans for Gateway, the NEC, cost of superstorm Sandy, the current budget process making planning for equipment acquisition difficult, the impact of the 2008 PRIIA act on equipment use, and big news that Amtrak is now planning to postpone any additional equipment purchases except for Acela IIs and switcher cars until 2019.

Excellent post, afiggatt. Especially about the changes (not procuring additional fleet beyond already named until 2019). I looked at some of the documents but couldn't really find more than that. I assume they won't exercise the options on additional cars beyond the midwest/ca currently under construction? Hopefully this is a segway in to the really high-end, state of the art rolling stock. As noted in the fleet management report (from last year) average age of equipment is 28 years which is mind blowing. If they had better equipment they would already be running a surplus on operating costs.

Since Amfleets alone are not the only fleets affected I'm posting the above here for discussion of the implications of the decisions by Amtrak as outlined above. To say that things are going to be "tight" is probably an understatement at this point. It would also seem quite clear that Amtrak must have some very clear, but as of yet unannounced, plans in mind for reutilizing the Horizon cars. I remain as ever curious about the prospects of further rebuilds of the remaining "Amshell(s)" fleet. Perhaps more likely is a major rebuild program for the Horizon cars. If steps are taken to eliminate their supposed "snowbird" tendencies (i.e. operational issues from extended exposure to extreme cold weather) then these cars could form the backbone for any effort by Amtrak to continue to extend trains on the NEC.

This combined with the new ACS-64 engines could mean an era of 10-12+ car trainsets could return yet again to the NEC. I'm sure Amtrak would appreciate the bottom line contributions of such flexibility and the subsequent resulting demand growth.

[ThirdRail7]

Re: Capacity Management/Revenue Enhancement

Postby gokeefe » Mon May 27, 2013 7:43 pm
From the Amtrak Success Stories thread:

afiggatt wrote:It should be noted that while waiting for the April 2013 monthly report to be posted, that Amtrak has posted 3 new documents on the Reports & Documents page under Comprehensive Business Plan: revised FY13 budget, FY14 budget request justification, and FY13-FY17 Five Year Financial Plan. There is a significant amount of material and discussions in the documents on plans & projected budgets for the next 4 years that is worth reading. Plans for Gateway, the NEC, cost of superstorm Sandy, the current budget process making planning for equipment acquisition difficult, the impact of the 2008 PRIIA act on equipment use, and big news that Amtrak is now planning to postpone any additional equipment purchases except for Acela IIs and switcher cars until 2019.



H Street Landlord wrote:Excellent post, afiggatt. Especially about the changes (not procuring additional fleet beyond already named until 2019). I looked at some of the documents but couldn't really find more than that. I assume they won't exercise the options on additional cars beyond the midwest/ca currently under construction? Hopefully this is a segway in to the really high-end, state of the art rolling stock. As noted in the fleet management report (from last year) average age of equipment is 28 years which is mind blowing. If they had better equipment they would already be running a surplus on operating costs.



Since Amfleets alone are not the only fleets affected I'm posting the above here for discussion of the implications of the decisions by Amtrak as outlined above. To say that things are going to be "tight" is probably an understatement at this point. It would also seem quite clear that Amtrak must have some very clear, but as of yet unannounced, plans in mind for reutilizing the Horizon cars. I remain as ever curious about the prospects of further rebuilds of the remaining "Amshell(s)" fleet. Perhaps more likely is a major rebuild program for the Horizon cars. If steps are taken to eliminate their supposed "snowbird" tendencies (i.e. operational issues from extended exposure to extreme cold weather) then these cars could form the backbone for any effort by Amtrak to continue to extend trains on the NEC.

This combined with the new ACS-64 engines could mean an era of 10-12+ car trainsets could return yet again to the NEC. I'm sure Amtrak would appreciate the bottom line contributions of such flexibility and the subsequent resulting demand growth.

We have 10-12+ car trainsets plying the rails with the current engine fleet. The ACS will not really add anything to the mix. I am reluctant to use the word "tight" based upon current usage. However, there are so many proposals to extend service. VA is making a real push on the ROA front and the NFK front. MA has big plans for NE and there are a couple of more proposals that are afoot (but cannot be discussed here at this point.)

This does throw water on any talk of retiring Horizon cars.

Still, we're overlooking one thing:

Re: Capacity Management/Revenue Enhancement

Postby gokeefe » Tue Oct 16, 2012 7:53 am

ThirdRail7 wrote:Do you see where I'm going with this? There are many scenarios to consider.

Yes I do and thank you for the clarity. Clearly from what you're indicating there is a very strong case to be made that Amtrak could cover their fleet issues using equipment from "off-ramped" state supported corridors transitioning from Amtrak due to the new PRIIA funding formula. Furthermore, it is entirely possible that the states could already be in the preparatory stages of such a change.

While on some level losing those services could (would?) be a negative for Amtrak, I wonder if there would be some positives in this equation for them as well.

This is still looming and not out of the equation. Perhaps they already "suspect" or "know" how much equipment is becoming available. Perhaps this is the reason the need for new equipment isn't as urgent as once believed.

We shall soon see.

[Station Aficionado]

The new 5-year plan is rather coy about non-NEC equipment acquisitions. It says that the existing single-level order will be completed (nothing about adding additional cars to the order) and a few switchers will be purchased. Beyond that, nothing. It's interesting to read this in context with Mr. Boardman's recent (fairly robust) defense of the national network. We know the states are/will be in the lead on new equipment for short/medium-distance services. But the LDs are Amtrak's charge. While the eastern LDs could benefit from some cascading of equipment (e.g., adding single-level coaches of some variety to increase peak period capacity), there's a big investment gap for the western LDs. We are now, I believe, at 30+ years since the first Superliner I's entered service and nearing 20 years since the last of the Supeliner II's came on line. Even with a robust rebuilding program for existing equipment (which is called for in the 5-year plan), there's still likely to be a slow degradation of the equipment pool for the western trains.

[gokeefe]

ThirdRail7,

I appreciate the reminder regarding possible changes to state supported services. For the moment it is my understanding that the PA trains are going to continue essentially unchanged. The Hoosier State seems to be the only real "loss". The other "hope" for additional Amfleet cars has been the return of some single level cars from service in Illinois, along with, of course, the entire Horizon fleet. So perhaps thinking in those terms Amtrak decided that they would rather just rehabilitate the Horizon cars than acquire a whole new class of coach cars.

[jstolberg]

The new 5-year plan is rather coy about non-NEC equipment acquisitions. It says that the existing single-level order will be completed (nothing about adding additional cars to the order) and a few switchers will be purchased. Beyond that, nothing. It's interesting to read this in context with Mr. Boardman's recent (fairly robust) defense of the national network. We know the states are/will be in the lead on new equipment for short/medium-distance services. But the LDs are Amtrak's charge. While the eastern LDs could benefit from some cascading of equipment (e.g., adding single-level coaches of some variety to increase peak period capacity), there's a big investment gap for the western LDs. We are now, I believe, at 30+ years since the first Superliner I's entered service and nearing 20 years since the last of the Supeliner II's came on line. Even with a robust rebuilding program for existing equipment (which is called for in the 5-year plan), there's still likely to be a slow degradation of the equipment pool for the western trains.

The fleet plans beyond 2017 are published in the FY2014 Budget Request Justification. http://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/851/32/Amtr ... tion,0.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; page 14

Amtrak doesn't publish load factors for each train, but doing a little math, I find that the following routes had higher load factors last year than the Acelas:
Carolinian
Adirondack
Texas Eagle
Auto Train
City of New Orleans
Capitol Limited
Washington-Lynchburg
Silver Star
Southwest Chief
Silver Meteor
Lake Shore Limited

And in 2013, projections are that the following additional trains will also have load factors higher than the Acelas
Coast Starlight
Empire Builder
Washington-Newport News

Most of these are long-distance trains with Superliner equipment and won't have an opportunity to increase capacity until at least 2021 except for adding some seats by reducing seat pitch.

[gokeefe]

I find it interesting that on some level the real problem with some of the Long Distance trains appears to be stagnant capacity in the face of growing demand.

We will have to see what effect the CAF Viewliner(s) have on this issue, especially as the new baggage/dorm cars come online.

[gokeefe]

Another factor worth remembering but forgotten in my first post is the immediate effect that renewal of the electric traction fleet will have on maintenance and power expenses. Amtrak is going to see some very significant savings here which will only be partially offset by the loan payments.

[Station Aficionado]

The new 5-year plan is rather coy about non-NEC equipment acquisitions. It says that the existing single-level order will be completed (nothing about adding additional cars to the order) and a few switchers will be purchased. Beyond that, nothing. It's interesting to read this in context with Mr. Boardman's recent (fairly robust) defense of the national network. We know the states are/will be in the lead on new equipment for short/medium-distance services. But the LDs are Amtrak's charge. While the eastern LDs could benefit from some cascading of equipment (e.g., adding single-level coaches of some variety to increase peak period capacity), there's a big investment gap for the western LDs. We are now, I believe, at 30+ years since the first Superliner I's entered service and nearing 20 years since the last of the Supeliner II's came on line. Even with a robust rebuilding program for existing equipment (which is called for in the 5-year plan), there's still likely to be a slow degradation of the equipment pool for the western trains.

The fleet plans beyond 2017 are published in the FY2014 Budget Request Justification. http://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/851/32/Amtr ... tion,0.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; page 14

For the western LDs plus CONO, CL and AT, plus whatever use of superliners is made on short-distance services, the OTOL roster pages lists (by my count) a total of 459 activer superliners (I's and II's). The FY14 Budget requests projects acquiring 508 "bi-level" cars in the 2021-2026 timeframe. Assuming that those are all intended to replace the current superliner fleet, that's a 10.7% increase in number of cars over a 13-year (2013-2026) timeframe.

[jstolberg]

For the western LDs plus CONO, CL and AT, plus whatever use of superliners is made on short-distance services, the OTOL roster pages lists (by my count) a total of 459 activer superliners (I's and II's). The FY14 Budget requests projects acquiring 508 "bi-level" cars in the 2021-2026 timeframe. Assuming that those are all intended to replace the current superliner fleet, that's a 10.7% increase in number of cars over a 13-year (2013-2026) timeframe.

By my count, 47 of the original 479 Superliner cars are either in wrecked storage or completely scrapped. So I get 432 cars in use. Plus there are 5 Pacific Parlour cars to replace. The Superliners are more likely than Amfleets to get damaged because of the large number of grade crossings. An estimate of 2 wrecked cars per year would be good for planning. So 508 cars becomes 458 cars after 25 years. 458-437 is an increase of 21 cars, or about 5 percent. Figured differently, 508 cars to replace the original order of 479 cars plus the 5 Pacific Parlour cars is an increase of 24 cars, still about 5%. That's equivalent to about 2 years of ridership growth.

[GWoodle]

Meanwhile it appears the 2 Wisconsin Talgo sets are built & nearly ready to run as soon as tests could be completed. Too bad with the 2 sets, they could not be used in Chicago-Milwaukee round trips to free up a few cars in Hiawatha service for other uses. Too bad somebody hasn't stepped up to at least offer them in a trial demonstration run.