I think right now the news is reveling in their click-fueled fantasy world with articles about "THINGS WILL NEVER BE THE SAME" or "DOOM FOLLOWED BY GLOOM AND MORE DOOM FOR ____ ECONOMY BUSINESS MONEY THING".
Allow me to put a hard stop on that very quickly.
We heard that same malarkey after 9/11, and then after the great crash of 2009. We probably heard that after 1941, 1987, 1991, etc... on and on and on.
Yes, things will change. Things change regardless of crisis. I don't use a blackberry or fax anymore, I don't worry about polio, my car shifts itself and starts itself, I have never dialed a phone by rotating the numbers, things have and continue to change. The world is a dynamic place. We didn't get camera phones or facebook as a result of the last crash or plague. How many of those were crisis-induced innovations?
Know what else is cool? After every calamity is a boom. It starts slowly, and it's hard at first, but the worst is over. We're in or near the trough. 2024 will likely be much better than 2020.
To relate this to railroads, airplanes, travel:
1. Amtrak will grow but not win. I think Amtrak is great, and ridership will grow. Until we find a real business model it's not going to be a silver bullet. Want to make it mainstream? Find private operators and an equitable subsidy model. Run on time. Focus on short distances that are not attractive for car or air travel. Interline with air carriers so when you land at O'Hare or LaGuardia, you can get to Rockford or Punksatawney easily. Have Enterprise renting cars (or bikes?) or Lyft at the depot in Rockford to get you to Loves Park. Railfans are <1% of travelers, nobody rides just to ride trains. People ride to get places predictably.
2. There will be a big shakeout in air travel, but it will come back stronger. Look at Gulf Wars 1 & 2 or 9/11. There were bankruptcies and the weaker carriers (Pan Am, TWA) disappeared. Poorly ran state-run carriers disappeared or were privatised. Some were privatised poorly and are back to national status (Aerolineas Argentinas - privatisation is not always done right). On the day before Covid hit, the big three US carriers were kicking serious a$s.
3. We will forget the bad stuff faster than you imagine. If you read Galbraith's "Great Crash 1929" or some of his other work, boom-bust cycles go a bit like this. We crawl out of a bust, the boom begins slowly, then faster, as it goes we take more and more risks. At some point we forget what risk means and pretend it doesn't matter. Then there's a bust. We remember risk and are overprotective. The bust goes ugly quickly. Then we hit bottom and repeat. What I perceive to be the silver lining of this bust: it wasn't caused by massive defaults and under-valued assets securing over-valued debt. Like 2009. Like 1929. Like 1987. Ergo it might be easier to pick up the pieces. 1/4 of all homes are not in default or bank-owned. There are no trusts. There are no tulip bulbs.
4. Work travel will continue to rebalance. Notice I didnt' say grow/shrink. As Mr. Norman points out, junior staffers will spend less time on client sites. That's been a 20 year trend and it's not stopping now. Mid-level staff will continue to be forced into coach for business travel. That sounds elitist, but try flying 8+ hours every week. Also consider that it's hard to work in coach, easy in first. I have a friend that has an overt agreement with a client in SFO, while he is in DC. He bills two extra hours per week. That money covers first class to SFO. He flies whenever however they need, drop of a hat. They value his work that much. And that's the take-away: We will reconsider where the value is an re-emphasize there.
Food for thought.
The new Acela: It's not Aveliable.
