Another try at Acela non-stop service

[n2cbo]

That is, of course, unless Amtrak believes they will actually fill the entire train with express riders, in which case this is a huge win. Should be interesting to see the results after a few months.

Maybe they believe that but I suspect it's a belief rather one supported by any educated guess or modeling. I suspect the 430 PM will do ok because it's a good slot. The time savings is minimal. .most routes would kill to have a metro area of six million at its midpoint but Amtrak brass has always tried to depress demand in philly, charging the highest fares in the system.
We shall see

Like I stated before when Amtrak ran the experimental X-2000 in Metroliner service, they only made Baltimore and Washington, and the train was just about full.

[rcthompson04]

30th St riders could easily catch a regular Acela...right?

We are down to less than 10 minutes of savings between 30th Street and NYP and less than 15 between 30th Street and Washington.

That adds up to 25 minutes. Pretty good time savings in my book...

The NYP to Washington leg saves time. I am noting the savings between Philadelphia and either point is quite nominal. Maybe the way to handle if you did add Philadelphia was to make it board only at Philadelphia in the morning and drop off only in the evening.

[mtuandrew]

This seems like essentially an Advance Acela, clearing out through travelers so the regular Acela can make the usual stops and pick up intermediate travelers. It’s a good thing for Amtrak as much as it is a customer convenience.

[BandA]

When the Avelias are available, how many additional runs can be added? And how many will be non-stops?

[Arlington]

When the Avelias are available, how many additional runs can be added? And how many will be non-stops?

Doubling during peak hours. I'd guess non-stops, once all Avelias are here = 0.

The stated goal in the 2017 Five Year Plan was

increased service including half-hourly Acela Express service between Washington DC and New York
City during peak hours and hourly service between New York City and Boston.

I don't think they'll want to operate any of them express at that point. I believe that the current express is just a way to squeeze one more trip in the AM southbound and one more trip into the PM northbound, without re-working the whole corridor schedule.

Once they can offer half-hourly and higher running speeds, (and 35% more seats per departure) they'll want to re-work the schedule and add back all the intermediate stops.

[gokeefe]

When the Avelias are available, how many additional runs can be added? And how many will be non-stops?

Doubling during peak hours. I'd guess non-stops, once all Avelias are here = 0.

The press release makes it crystal clear they intend to run more Acela Nonstop service in the future. Hence my initial question with regards to possible changes to the disposition plan. Let's assume they do everything as planned so far. Specifically, improved hourly and half hourly service plus more nonstops. What kind of a trainset count does that yield? Assume turn times remain the same (no quick turns).

[Arlington]

The Acela Nonstop service comes in advance of the 2021 launch of brand-new Acela trainsets. The next generation of Acela trains, which are also expected to offer nonstop service between Washington and New York and New York and Boston, are being assembled at Alstom’s facility in Hornell, New York, and will begin initial testing later this year and into 2020.

While the Acela Nonstop is currently only available once per day between NYP and WAS, Amtrak will be weighing potential expansion in terms of location and frequency. In its 2018 Fiscal Year, NYP and WAS were Amtrak’s top two busiest stations across the national network.

Ok, I see your point that they seem to promise that (at least one) nonstop will be carried into the Avelua era, but they also leave themselves the option of "location" (which seems to me to allow intermediate stops).

At the same time, they seem (to me) to be mostly using the (tenuous) connection between an Acela 1 nonstop and future service as a way of reminding people that the Avelias are coming, not that *more* nonstops are (read that first paragraph slowly) and see if you see it too.

So in a world of 170% capacity growth at peak times, it isn't clear to me that youd score a win by skipping the Metroliner stops, even though I agree with doing it now.

[Edited from 70% to 170%]

[gokeefe]

The reference to "location" is simply city pairs. They're hedging on Boston and (I would guess) Philadelphia (to NYP in particular and maybe WAS).

The math is the most interesting possibility to me. I'm curious what the trainset count is and how that compares to capacity (just too fried right now to run it myself ...).

[Arlington]

35% bigger trainsets running every 30* minutes ("at peak times") = 170% capacity growth at peak times (which is also when they'll be "weighing" their nonstops.

*WAS doubles from hourly to half hourly;
BOS doubles from 2 hours to hourly,
but only in the peak

1.35 x 2 = 270% you could even call it a "near-tripling" instead of 170% growth.

[gokeefe]

Ok so let's try this ... 20 trainsets are being replaced by 28 new trainsets.

Of course schedule frequencies are agnostic to the size of the train.

So ... If both service patterns are going to double and there no significant changes to speeds (which is more or less true) then you get a requirement for 40 trainsets (not merely 28).

Perhaps due to other improvements not currently understood Amtrak can cover the new schedule with something like 35-38 new trainsets. But what we are seeing proposed right now appears to imply that Amtrak is going to have quite a bit more than 28 trainsets.

So ... imagine what they could do if they had 48 trainsets (20 Acela, 28 Avelia).

That's where you come up with the capacity to double the current schedules and add non stop service as well.

The really great part about this for Amtrak is that non stop service gives them a premium tier in which they can deploy their best equipment and charge more for it. It's a marketing gimmick to some but a serious difference to others.

I know people are probably going to think this is crazy but the math doesn't lie.

[Arlington]

They are not sustaining the twice hourlies all day. That eases the fleet required

[nearlyanonymous]

This looks like the new Northeast Corridor schedule effective Sept. 23, 2019:

https://www.amtrak.com/content/dam/proj ... 092319.pdf

Aren't there supposed to be a couple of non-stop Acela trains between Washington, DC and Penn Station - New York on this schedule?

[ExCon90]

Trains operating only between NY and Wash don't appear on the Boston schedules. There should also be a different table just showing New York-Washington.

[Riverduckexpress]

This looks like the new Northeast Corridor schedule effective Sept. 23, 2019:

https://www.amtrak.com/content/dam/proj ... 092319.pdf

Aren't there supposed to be a couple of non-stop Acela trains between Washington, DC and Penn Station - New York on this schedule?

You linked to the wrong timetable. Amtrak displays Northeast Corridor service across three different timetables:

W02, which shows all trains between Washington D.C. and New York (except for the closed-door long distance trains): https://www.amtrak.com/content/dam/proj ... 061019.pdf
Amtrak doesn't seem to have uploaded a new September schedule on their website yet. Also notable in that it's split into weekday and weekend sections.

W04, the schedule you linked to, which shows all trains that operate to Boston or Springfield (and now Greenfield), and only those trains (so the Acela Nonstop trains which only operate between DC and NY Penn won't show up on that schedule)

W06, which shows all trains that run between the NEC and Virginia, including all the long distance trains: https://www.amtrak.com/content/dam/proj ... 071319.pdf

The National System Timetables do have a combined NEC schedule that shows all trains operating between Boston and DC (except for the closed-door LD trains) (https://juckins.net/amtrak_timetables/a ... 180601.pdf), but it seems like recently it hasn't been made into its own timetable. Amtrak should make a single Boston-to-DC schedule and split it into weekday and weekend sections.

[Arlington]

WaPo report: avg of 320 pax per day on the nonstop

The nonstop Acela, officials say, was a natural progression. So far, it’s off to a good start, with a ridership of 8,000 in the first month, or about 320 passengers round trip daily, and has potential for growth.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/tr ... story.html