Another try at Acela non-stop service

[andrewjw]

Please don't ruin a discussion of nonstop service with an irrelevant rolling stock rehash

I was trying to politely nudge people with a predisposition for Acela disposition towards that thread while giving anyone who didn't feel like spinning that turntable 360 degrees the summary, haha.

[Tadman]

I think it's a genius move whose time has finally come. Just look at Amtrak's ridership levels. We are in a totally different place than we were ten years+ ago. Also notable ... The press release almost seems to imply that Amtrak intends to keep the first generation Acelas operational.

I certainly agree with this part. I hate when people say "It didn't work 10-20 years ago and it won't work now" or "this worked last year so we're doing it this year". We are in a much different time.

Another reason to keep the Acela's is the possibility of an abject failure in the Amfleet 1's. I.e frame cracking found or similar. Given their age abnnd time running at 125 mph.

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The age may have something to do with it, but I doubt the speed does. As a simplification, cracks come from bending in two directions repeatedly. Running at 125mph is probably not much different than 79 with regard to forces exerted on the frames. You're seeing pull in one direction. But continuous start/stop, car kicking, and hump sorting is probably ruinous on a frame. The frame sees constant accel/decel in both directions.

[Arlington]

Here is the limit of rollingstock relevance here: with 20 Acela Trainsets, Amtrak has a problem deploying enough capacity at peak times. They've been able to squeeze out one super-express run and still support the rest of the schedule. If there are 10 hours of bi-directional hourly "peak" per day, there are 20 peak trains per day (WAS-NYP). Squeezing in an extra round trip brings that to 22 peak trains per day, an increase of 10% in peak capacity. 10% growth in capacity should be easily absorbed (I still think It'd be easier to absorb NYP-PHL-WAS, but it isn't like they've ruled that out by starting with NYP-WAS and seeing if things grow & rebalance).

Recall too, that Amtrak thought that a 25% growth in capacity on Acela (going from 6 coaches to 8 on each train) would have been absorbed successfully by the market, so 10%, targeted at a peak demand time, should be an economic win.

Meanwhile, 28 Avelia Liberty trainsets (a 40% growth) which each have 33% more seats, mean that Amtrak thinks it can profitably deploy a 1.4x1.3 = 1.86...an 86% increase in capacity is coming. If you think the NEC can "win" with 86% more capacity, there's every reason to believe it can fill 10% more peak capacity.

But what if it can't actually absorb all that growth that quickly? Well, just about the worst time to say "we might need the Acela 1s" would be in the first 10 years of Avelia service.

So there are only two scenarios here:
- Either the NYP-WAS can absorb an 80% increase in Acela capacity, in which case filling a 10% increase should be easy (this thread), and, if Avelia is doing that well, they'll know in time to order more (in which case: Acela 1s are irrelevant)
OR
- The NYP-WAS cannot absorb an 80% increase in Acela capacity, in which case the Acela 1s are a double-albatross (and double irrelevant)

And, if this were a different thread, I'd note that both the Avelia and Brightline/Midwest assembly lines are all tooled up and ready to crank out modern, standard fleet additions should the need arise.

[electricron]

The opinions expressed to me earlier suggest Amtrak can not wait to get rid of the Acela train sets with many reasons on why.
So I believe Amtrak will retire them as soon as Avelias arrive to replace them, I expect the first Acela to retire upon accepting the ninth Avelia, with the last Acela retiring upon accepting the twenty eight Avelia.

If Amtrak was going to keep any Acelas around for a while, the only place Amtrak could use them is on Keystone services to Harrisburg, PA. They wouldn’t have to modify them one bit, although they might have to modify some of the platforms - and I write that only because I am not that familiar or aware if all these platforms are high platforms or not.

As for stress cracking of the frames and bogies, all these cracks can be repaired or replaced. The Keystone trains are not going to need all twenty Acela train sets, so there will be plenty of them around to maintain the service for Amtrak to perform long intensive repairs. Being able to zip down the NEC at faster speeds than 125 mph on the racetrack in NJ should be a blessing for the Keystones schedules. Whether or not Amtrak wishes to spend the money to extend their life is the big question to be answered by Amtrak. Past discussions suggests the answer is no.

The only other place in the USA with a potential hundred miles of electric catenaries above the tracks will be in California, specifically Bakersfield to Merced. Will California buy them at scrap prices? Will California hang the wires sooner rather than later? Will California be happy with 125 mph max speeds on segment one if they do not? It is difficult to figure out what CHSR plans, because they have not ordered any electric powered locomotives or HSR train sets yet. Maybe they are waiting for Amtrak to retire the Acelas, or maybe not?

Getting this response back on topic, with 28 new Avelia train sets replacing 20 Acelas, I expect more non stop express services in the future.

[gokeefe]

Apologies. It remains notable that the intention is to do more than one route alone. Regardless of other implications there seems to be a far more substantial intention for service expansion than is currently understood.

[Tadman]

Both Ron's statement and George's analysis make a very good case for Acela 1 retirement. The ony quasi-credible (emphasis on quasi) source speaking of keeping them around (from a wise vendor, not direct railroad source) suggested that they might sell them to Cali. That project is dead and getting colder.

[gokeefe]

Even harder to believe when one considers the obvious options from Siemens in Sacramento (including the full portfolio of Siemens HSR trainsets not currently built there).

[STrRedWolf]

Think media and lobbyists who need to be in DC for the day. The Capitol is 3 minutes from Union Station. Unless they're flying by private jet (probably reserved for their bosses) they can't do this trip any faster. If they live in Manhattan the timing is great and an extra 25 minutes is like pure gold to these people (not to mention the opportunity to ride in FirstClass).

I think it's a genius move whose time has finally come. Just look at Amtrak's ridership levels. We are in a totally different place than we were ten years+ ago. Also notable ... The press release almost seems to imply that Amtrak intends to keep the first generation Acelas operational.

The media already are in DC -- some have special HQs for covering the White House, the Supreme Court, and all the CongressCritters.

It's mainly the lobbyists.

[njtmnrrbuff]

The Acela trainsets would do great on the Keystone Corridor, except that they would only be able to stop at high level platforms. There are still plenty of low level platforms out there, but many high ones as well. There are plenty of places to tilt them.

Back to the non-stop service-Amtrak is doing the right thing by experimenting with the moving the southbound departure up to very early in the morning and the northbound departure in the late afternoon. I think when the nonstop service operated in 2001, those trains departed NYP just before the rush hour and that was the issue. There are probably many companies who have meetings that end just before the shoulder of the rush hour so even having the train depart on the shoulder will hopefully generate many riders.

[rcthompson04]

The Acela trainsets would do great on the Keystone Corridor, except that they would only be able to stop at high level platforms. There are still plenty of low level platforms out there, but many high ones as well. There are plenty of places to tilt them.

Back to the non-stop service-Amtrak is doing the right thing by experimenting with the moving the southbound departure up to very early in the morning and the northbound departure in the late afternoon. I think when the nonstop service operated in 2001, those trains departed NYP just before the rush hour and that was the issue. There are probably many companies who have meetings that end just before the shoulder of the rush hour so even having the train depart on the shoulder will hopefully generate many riders.

I don’t think the Acelas would have too many issues on the Keystone in a few years. High level platforms will be in service by the end of the year at all stops except Ardmore, Coatesville, Downingtown, Parkesburg, and Middletown. All but Parkesburg are in the process of being upgraded in the next 5 years.

The bigger problem is whether the state will pay the higher costs.

[Ridgefielder]

Think media and lobbyists who need to be in DC for the day. The Capitol is 3 minutes from Union Station. Unless they're flying by private jet (probably reserved for their bosses) they can't do this trip any faster. If they live in Manhattan the timing is great and an extra 25 minutes is like pure gold to these people (not to mention the opportunity to ride in FirstClass).

I think it's a genius move whose time has finally come. Just look at Amtrak's ridership levels. We are in a totally different place than we were ten years+ ago. Also notable ... The press release almost seems to imply that Amtrak intends to keep the first generation Acelas operational.

The media already are in DC -- some have special HQs for covering the White House, the Supreme Court, and all the CongressCritters.

It's mainly the lobbyists.

The lobbyists already live in DC or Northern VA.

The people who are going to use this are a) finance-industry types going down to call on the dozens of major companies-- especially in the defense and communications sectors-- that are based in the DC area; b) lawyers going down to meet with regulators at the FCC, FTC, FDA, DoJ, Dept of Commerce, Dept of Energy, etc. etc.; c) advertising executives going to work on the latest re-election campaign for Sen. Foghorn Leghorn and his colleagues.

[mtuandrew]

Since we keep drifting to AX-1 on the Keystone Corridor, to keep it within the confines of this thread what about a PHL-HAR nonstop service? Is there demand, are there enough crossovers and third tracks to pass SEPTA locals, and could they feasibly raise the limit to 125 mph?

[Jeff Smith]

<cough> ACELA NON-STOP <cough>

Further posts on ACELA fleet disposition should be discussed here: https://railroad.net/viewtopic.php?f=46&t=168907

Further posts here will be summarily shot.... er, deleted.

[MACTRAXX]

Everyone: Interesting topic about nonstop NEC express trains since the late 1960s...

I recall an express "Metroliner Service" pair of weekday trains run back in the 1980s:

WAS and NCR to NYP -and- NYP to NCR and WAS.

The Metroliner Service promotion mention was "Two Hours and 59 Civilized Minutes"

Does anyone remember the dates these trains ran and why they were discontinued?

MACTRAXX

READ MY 5th post on this thread which provides the details of the non-stop Metroliner

NY&LB: NO...This Metroliner Service train pair I recall was from the mid to late 1980s along with the schedule
time promotion. The 1969 PC Metroliner nonstop runs that you refer to were an earlier service that predated
Amtrak operating with the then-new Metroliner MU cars...MACTRAXX

[Suburban Station]

Since we keep drifting to AX-1 on the Keystone Corridor, to keep it within the confines of this thread what about a PHL-HAR nonstop service? Is there demand, are there enough crossovers and third tracks to pass SEPTA locals, and could they feasibly raise the limit to 125 mph?

Lancaster is the largest station by ridership, all trains should stop there no matter what but a tilting, 125 mph train making only lancaster would be exceptionally attract for riders going to both Philly and NYP. they might finally have to build that LNC parking garage, which they should build anyway.