Amfleet Replacement Discussion.

[bdawe]

Under Tier II rules...?

[Greg Moore]

As a brief aside, I think there is enough passenger travel demand to justify an Amfleet-replacement order of 1000 coaches, minimum. Amtrak conventional trains in the Northeast are *short*, and while the Avelias will soak up some of the latent demand, there is really no reason not to be plotting 12-car Northeast Regionals on the NEC mainline, ASAP.

Hard to say. Not sure 1000 coaches really is the right number. That's more than 2x the current number of coaches (I'm assuming you're talking Amfleet I replacements only).

Do we really need that many more?
Personally I'd rather shoot for say 625 (so 125/year for 5 years) with options for more. I think that gives a vendor a large enough order to shoot for, but doesn't force Amtrak to end up buying more than they need.

But that said, I think it's clear, Amtrak definitely needs more coaches. At least 100-200 more than they've got.

[mtuandrew]

Messrs Mack and Moore, can you imagine what kind of political uproar there would be if some fiscal-conservative Representative saw a yard full of AmCoaches rusting to the ground due to over-ordering? We all know Amtrak would use them sooner rather than later, but that's the kind of thing that gets appropriations slashed in the wrong hands. Imagine Rep. Mica, but tenfold.

[Nasadowsk]

Under Tier II rules...?

IIRC, Tier II only covers up to 150mph. Tier III may say dedicated tracks above 125, Amtrak can just get a waiver for _that_

Amtrak should wait to see what the FRA decides, and if it goes the way it likely will, start with a fresh sheet for the next gen NEC cars. I also don't see an over-order of AmCoaches going to waste - a single level car that can fit on the NEC can fit anywhere else, and they can be leased for start-up services, or heck, even to the LIRR or others who can use the capacity. Sure it's not a sexy form factor, but if it's there, proven, cheap, it's not that bad.

Of course, Euro-compliant specs means Stadler might throw their hat into the ring. Siemens and Alstom may not like that...

[east point]

Some assumptions need to be disputed. The following link pages 25 - 28 shows the mileages of all equipment. Note that Amfleet-2s have 50% more mileage than -1s. That alone would indicate that the -2s will be retired before the -1s

https://www.amtrak.com/servlet/ContentS ... 1645702359" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[east point]

Continuing the Amtrak fleet strategy plan 3.1 on pages 6, & 56-57 also lists -2s retiring 1st..

https://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/36/921/201 ... -29-12.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The strategy plan notes that any retirements will be dependent on number of cars delivered and passenger demand. No time line on retirements but purchasing in the report has been delayed at least 4 years.

Some questions. will all single levels in the future be the same shell. Biggest question will be will all cars just have one vestibule or will NEC cars have 2 ?
Since CAF may have been placed in the dog house the only apparent builder might be Siemens ? Siemens cars will need a trap in vestibule and have standard AAR couplers ?
The strategy plan list total of 926 new single level cars.

[Gilbert B Norman]

Mr. East Point, let it be noted that Europe does not have high level platforms, so all cars to my knowledge, have traps.

While it appears the AAF cars now being delivered did originate from a European design, their structural integrity, would not be comprised if traps were part of an Amtrak order (and should AAF "belly", their cars so retrofitted).

[Nasadowsk]

Mr. East Point, let it be noted that Europe does not have high level platforms, so all cars to my knowledge, have traps.

Munich's S Bahn, among others would disagree Though most of EU seems to be gravitating towards that 550mm standard. Maybe. Still, most European low platforms aren't as much of a disaster as seen in a lot of the US. and low platform cars tend to mitigate that, anyway.

(My winter break won't be overseas exploring Europe this year. Bummer...)

While it appears the AAF cars now being delivered did originate from a European design, their structural integrity, would not be comprised if traps were part of an Amtrak order (and should AAF "belly", their cars so retrofitted).

You can bet Siemens already 'ran the numbers' for that. Existing assembly line, a few good first impressions (let's face it, it's not perfect, but the ACS-64 seems to be doing darn well so far)....

Someone up in Quebec is crying right now. With a proven motor and possibly soon a proven locomotive, and some 'fleet leaders' down in Florida for the single level stuff (and, let's be honest here, FEC's gonna be a tough customer, because you don't get second chances in private industry, especially with a super high profile project like that one), a respected LRV portfolio, a DMU....Siemens just needs to check off the 'bilevel' box somewhere (Let's say, somewhere between Trenton NJ and Wilmington DE, maybe?), and things get really interesting.

[CComMack]

As a brief aside, I think there is enough passenger travel demand to justify an Amfleet-replacement order of 1000 coaches, minimum. Amtrak conventional trains in the Northeast are *short*, and while the Avelias will soak up some of the latent demand, there is really no reason not to be plotting 12-car Northeast Regionals on the NEC mainline, ASAP.

Hard to say. Not sure 1000 coaches really is the right number. That's more than 2x the current number of coaches (I'm assuming you're talking Amfleet I replacements only).

Do we really need that many more?
Personally I'd rather shoot for say 625 (so 125/year for 5 years) with options for more. I think that gives a vendor a large enough order to shoot for, but doesn't force Amtrak to end up buying more than they need.

But that said, I think it's clear, Amtrak definitely needs more coaches. At least 100-200 more than they've got.

As others have pointed out, the Amfleet IIs are up for retirement before the Amfleet Is. There is also the matter of replacing and expanding the Metroliner cab car fleet, but that's only a few dozen cars

But there are two major sources of demand for new single-level coaches.

One is states looking to expand service. City elders in Pittsburgh want to take the Pennsylvanian to 3x daily, which is a good minimum service level. Virginia DRPT is planning on a Roanoke train and three more trains to Hampton Roads. All of those trains are hard on equipment utilization, to the extent that Amtrak could not fulfill a request to start up such service tomorrow, if it came to it.

The other is the simple flipside to the current situation: there is no reason to run a train into or out of NYP in daylight hours with fewer than 10 occupied cars. At peak travel times, even longer than that. What the ideal balance of Coach/BC/Cafe is, I leave to wiser heads, but the demand for seats is basically bottomless. Some amount of adding/dropping might be necessary to balance demand for trains that leave electric territory, but if you restrict consist adjustments to trains and locations that already have locomotive changes (and the mechanical forces to support them), that should keep cost and complexity to a minimum. But the principle should be to maximize the value from each locomotive and tunnel slot. This means longer trains.

I'm fine with a base order of ~625-750, with the rest as options, and a construction rate of ~125 per year, (I'd be surprised if any single carbuilder had the capacity to exceed that rate in US assembly plants), I just think there's enough demand to exercise the options in the case of all but gross manufacturer incompetence, and that budgeting should reflect that.

There are a few other places that need an extra new-build coach or two (replacing Beech Grove, etc.). We've discussed a WAS-ATL day train here before, in the context of the corridor bilevel order, but ultimately that train shares its only on-line equipment bases (WAS and CLT) with single-level trains, not bilevel corridor trains; I think single-leveling WAS-ATL and sending the bilevels elsewhere happens late in the order. And so forth. Plenty of places to ramp up car supply as time progresses; we're talking about the late 2020s by the time car #1000 comes in.

[Woody]

. . . this regulatory change by the FRA may mean the NGEC standards are going to get scrapped before a single car is ever built.

They wasted 8 years of Obama to get to this "deregulation".
If these had been the rules back in 2009, the Stimulus could have paid for the 1,000-car fleet order.

[gokeefe]

I think that's a very fair point. However, hindsight is always "20/20" and this is probably one of the best examples. Remember ... in 2009 Amtrak had yet to see the extraordinary ridership levels of the past 8 +/- years. They were doing well but it was not obvious (at least not that I recall) that Amtrak would want to expand the NEC HSR service as much as they will with the Avelia Liberty order.

The Northeast Regional service was still being run at an operating deficit (practically unthinkable now) and no one had any idea that all of the ARRA car rebuilds and conversions would be needed for trains that are just bursting at the seams in some cases. Also worth remembering ... NGEC was created by law ... (PRIIA). This was a major policy shift that was deemed necessary because no one thought a private company would be willing to enter the U.S. market without a standard design that would ensure sufficient volume to make fabrication of new cars profitable. Siemens entry (in part due to "stimulus" related ACS-64s) and the AAF/Brightline project has radically changed all of this.

At least in part you could say that the economic stimulus act actually created the circumstances that have led to some of these changes (remember the high speed rail saga in Florida? ...). Some very smart people in the U.S. rail industry suddenly realized that they were sitting on a viable passenger rail route and that the statutory context of passenger rail had been totally revised under the Amtrak Reform and Accountability Act of 1997.

[David Benton]

Do the brightline cars have steps /traps?
I am thinking of a 100 or so car order for the NEC only. Or a 5 year plan to equip all NEC regional routes with high platforms. I realise some freight routes would need gauntlets / sidings.Comparing cost of this vs cost of trap equipped cars( cost in $$$ and time to delivery.

[bdawe]

It looked like they didn't have traps from the videos of that set moving about, but it also looked like their might be space for them.

[Gilbert B Norman]

Over at the AAF topic within the FEC Forum, I noted that the contemporary Continental Europe car, of which Siemens builds many of such, has traps.

Know so first hand.

While the AAF cars are hardly an off the shelf copy, first for the narrower European width and of course FRA crashworthiness, it looks like the designers started with the proven European design.

[east point]

As far as can recall:. Brightline is going to be all high level. But to prevent the need for gauntlet tracks at passenger stations the cars are going to be equipped with extendable floor platforms at each doorway. Seem to recall it was going to be 12 inches out but that may be in error. That way freight trains can clear a set back platform ?