Arlington wrote:If there's a killer, it would likely be CSX's demands. I'm perfectly willing to be told that they'd demand too much for service that would amount too little.
I don't see Bus competition as a stopper, and I don't see the MBTA as an alternative (presumably CSX would hold up an MBTA SPG-WOR-BOS express for just as high a price as they'd demand for Amtrak, so the MBTA isn't cheaper from a ROW-improvements standpoint and may yet be an inferior offering--and MBTA's low "commuter" prices aren't "free." The MBTA is cheaper in part because it is more heavily subsidized. I think limited Amtrak service would be both better and cost the state a smaller--or zero--operating subsidy)
Almost everywhere it goes (and succeeds) Amtrak is succeeding in a niche above Peter Pan and Commuter Rail and below Air Travel. The presence of these other modes on 100 to 400 mile trips is more validly used to confirm demand and provide a ready pool of non-drivers than it is to say that the competition will win. Air, interstates, and buses have been available up and down the East Coast and yet the NEC makes money.
While I site SPG, WOR and BOS as big cities, I didn't hear myself say that SPG-BOS is the killer app, rather it would be the whole NEC (Clearly, SPG-NYP and SPG-PHL are going to be winners on the Knowledge Corridor trains without an inland route, but loading WOR-NYP and WOR-PHL and HVN-WOR and HFD-BOS and, yes, targeted rush-hour SPG-BOS trips onto the same trains could fill marginal seats).
Here are things the train can do that the other modes can't:
1) More like air (but cheaper), it is a premium experience covered (and easily justified) by expense accounts. You can actually open and use a laptop on the train. It just feels wrong to say that Peter Pan (or the private auto) has the market covered, especially for the "business day trip" or the exurban tele-commuter's once-a-week trip to the Big City.
2) Unique among modes, it can get in & out of downtown during rush hour. Try that in a Peter Pan or taxi from the airport. And a good share of drivers can't arrive for a client meeting 'ready to go' after driving themselves. Boston's rush hours are a big reason the Downeaster rush hour trains have beat the buses on I-93/95, and getting to NYP, New Jersey, and PHL are also high-fare, serious-demand markets. True, if you can schedule your meeting for 11am and be out of town by 3pm then car or bus is the winning mode, but I've been very selective in hoping for just rush-timed (ish) trains.
Before I owned a car I used to take Peter Pan from Boston to visit my folks in Hartford. The Pike is horrifying between I-290 in Auburn and I-84 in Sturbridge because of the rush hour backups at the tolls, and not much better on a Sunday night either when everyone's getting home from the work week. It is routinely +30-45 minutes because of that. I've done the L-shaped route BOS-SPR-HFD when 84 has been hosed and the bus has had to skip to Springfield to get around the backups. The 4-lane portion of the Pike ain't a picnic at rush either between Ludlow and I-291. I am positive that certain hours of the day the train on the L-shaped route is going to handily beat the bus. Not most hours of the day, but
critical hours of the day. Schedule certainty is a major attraction to that route vs. Peter Pan.
There's chatter from employees on the MBTA forum that speeds Framingham-Worcester are going to get a bump to Class 4 next year. I would imagine if it's as easy as they're suggesting and CSX bureaucracy has been the primary reason for the 59 MPH restriction that it's not far-fetched to get SPR-WOR up to Class 4 quickly too (excepting the localized geometry-induced restrictions). Double-tracking isn't a cost-prohibitive proposition either. Just break it into two phases...Springfield city line to Palmer, Palmer-Worcester city line. PTC isn't cost-prohibitive...it's already got cab signals west of Framingham (Framingham-east...different story). Remains to be seen how fast the Springfield Line is ultimately going to go, but if it's really going to have Class 5 or 6 track...Class 5 or 6 + Class 4 is damn competitive. That would be a huge deal in bad weather if Logan or Bradley flights have to get switched between the two, or if airfare prices cheaper at one or the other. It would be a huge deal for college kids who are the primary market for the Peter Pan bus (I know...I used to be that market). All the Boston-area colleges, Framingham State, all the Worcester- and Springfield-area colleges, Univ. of Hartford in city bus distance...maybe even shuttle bus distance from UMass if a bare single-car mini-high on stilts got installed in Palmer by popular demand. Plus just general-use where I-91, I-84, and the Pike are too high-stress and folks would rather relax. Of course the Shoreline is going to be the route of choice for NYC-BOS, but there is a wide wide market for the L-shaped route, the Springfield Line's getting a huge paid-for performance boost, and the necessary upgrades to the B&A are very low-hanging fruit because it's just not that far off from full Class 4 double-track.
And as far as CSX goes, the traffic's probably going to temporarily decline with double-stack eliminating a couple superfluous runs and majority of the freight schedules no longer having to bother with east-of-Worcester. The loading cranes at Worcester also make it easier to do long consists vs. Beacon Park's inefficient side-loading, so they've got a lot more flex to stack AND lengthen. Even if their carloads grow through the roof, they're probably going to hold the schedules steady for a number of years. And they can't resist opportunities to sell-high their infrastructure. It is possible...maybe even likely...that the B&A east of Springfield is going to be under state control within 5-7 years coinciding with Amtrak ramping into gear on the Inlands and upgrades. So the P.I.T.A. dispatching is going to have more passenger flex for multiple reasons...track capacity, freight schedule consolidation with CSX's added capacity, and public ownership probably buying them more priority (although I doubt WOR-SPR is going to be as cheap as the stunning bargain the state got from PAS this summer for the Conn River).
But BOS-SPR is only part of the story. This is really about BOS-Connecticut. And I agree that the T has no business getting involved. This ideally should be an extension of the current SPR Regionals schedule + a joint state-sponsored revival of the soon-to-be commuter rail-displaced Shuttle pinging NHV-BOS via SPR and with the state sponsoring netting some cost-managed fares like the current Shuttle. And, hey, if they see enough value in upgrading the Grand Junction there's your State of Maine train revival starter service at 1 round-trip per day. I'm bullish on the whole package of options this opens up. I don't expect this is going to be particularly frequent service at the start, but it's got a pretty high growth ceiling.