Railroad Forums 

  • Brightline (fka Virgin Rail, fka Brightline) IPO, Bonds, Success, Branding

  • This is a forum for all operations, both current and planned, of Brightline, formerly All Aboard Florida and Virgin Trains USA:
    Websites: Current Brightline
    Virgin USA
    Virgin UK
This is a forum for all operations, both current and planned, of Brightline, formerly All Aboard Florida and Virgin Trains USA:
Websites: Current Brightline
Virgin USA
Virgin UK

Moderator: CRail

 #1491372  by Jadebenn
 
RIP Brightline branding, we hardly knew ye. Thanks to a deal with the Virgin group, the company will be renamed Virgin Trains USA. And no, this is not a poorly-timed April Fool's joke.
Renaming to Virgin Trains USA will begin this month and transition to Virgin Trains USA branding in 2019.

However, Brightline will still be managed and operated by Brightline’s executive team and affiliates of Fortress Investment Group.
As someone who's vaguely aware of the reputation of the other Virgin Trains company, I hope the name is the only thing Fortress plans to import.
 #1491450  by Bonevalleyrailfan
 
Where to begin tonight. Brightline now Virgin Trains USA will issue an IPO. Here is the Miami Herald story

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/busine ... 06725.html

The SEC filing is here

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... 8x4_s1.htm

It appears they will build out Orlando and Tampa concurrently. It is a long document so I haven't gone through it all. If Mr. Norman is around I would love to hear your thoughts on all of this.
 #1491974  by bostontrainguy
 
So who here is going to buy this stock? I own CSX, NSC and UNP and they are doing okay. But my only experience with a new rail IPO was the original Auto-Train and it was a total loss as you all know.

Kind of reluctant to get involved again even though this is a most interesting opportunity. Whatever the case I look forward to reading the prospectus.
 #1491975  by Arlington
 
I'm tempted by the IPO, the more the states and Feds let the gas tax stagnate, the bigger the more attractive passenget rail will be as a way to accommodate medium haul travel.
 #1495480  by bostontrainguy
 
I don't know. I have stock in CSX, NS and UNP. Even had PWX and BNI but Warren gave me my money back. I had stock in KCS back when they were piecing it all together and did well. The KCS situation was like having insider information because I felt the average investor and analyst had no idea what was going on.

But the real hurt was when the original Auto-Train went belly up and I lost everything. This is a different animal but passenger rail seems like a risky situation. Are people going to throw their investment dollars at this when there are so many better tried-and-true options out there? I have my doubts. Hopefully we will all be surprised maybe?
 #1498849  by Jeff Smith
 
TampaBay.com: Virgin Trains USA announces initial public offering of up to $619 million to support Brightline expansion
Virgin Trains USA, the Sir Richard Branson-backed company that has partnered with Florida's Brightline passenger train, on Wednesday announced an initial public offering of stock to raise up to $619 million.

Altogether, Virgin Trains is offering to sell more than 32.5 million shares of stock at $17 to $19 per share. The shares will be listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange under the ticker symbol VTUS.

Brightline, which is soon expected to take on the Virgin Trains name, currently runs a passenger train between Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach, with plans to expand north to Orlando at an estimated cost of $1.9 billion. It also has proposed a $1.7 billion link from Orlando to Tampa, with a possible stop near Disney's theme parks, and is negotiating with the Florida Department of Transportation and the Central Florida Expressway Authority for right of way along or in the medians of Interstate 4 and State Road 417.
...
 #1499833  by Arlington
 
s4ny wrote:I have participated in thousands of IPOs in the last 21 years. I have never seen a business with less probability of success.
Your analysis was surely voluminous. Could you summarize it here?
I'd say a lot of analysts have gotten stuff like this wrong.

Lots of analysts said there was no room for JetBlue in a consolidating and viciously competitive airline industry. For JetBlue, it turned out that they'd staked out a defensible position in capacity-constrained airports (JFK, BOS, LGB, FLL) in very large markets, and then found some more (LGA, DCA, SJU)

Lots of analysts doubted that Southwest's strategy of competing mainly against cars was sustainable. It lasted them 20 solid years, and "drivers" represented a near-endless reservoir of "competitors' customers" that they could poach without fear of market response (Think the Fla toll roads are going to cut prices to win back market share? Doubtful)

Intra-Florida inter-city is a capacity constrained market.
Intra-Florida is a large market

1M people represents just 3% of the 3-city intracity market
2M (above breakeven) will represent 5% of the 3 city market
4M (where the S-1A says they are headed) is still just 10% of the 3-city volume

You can say things like "90% of people will NEVER consider taking the train"--and be entirely correct--and still VTUS can make a killing in the other 10%.

That part is playing out to plan. Why would you expect Orlando-Tampa to be different?
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