Panama Canal Widening - 2014

[SecaucusJunction]

Since the Panama Canal is supposed to open for larger ships as well as a greater number of ships in 2014, what effect does everyone think that will have on the railroads in NJ? Good, bad, no change? I've heard all different types of scenarios from more traffic, to less traffic, to not much change at all.... so I'm just wondering what the "experts" think on the situation.

[blockline4180]

Yeah, it will lead to intermodel trains on the Montclair/boonton line...Hahahaha

[wolfboy8171981]

Its to hard to tell at this point in time. It will all depend on the new port of entry/exit and what harbors can handle the new ships. With the Cresent and National Gateway Corridors comming online soon I dont expect a drop in traffic.

[SecaucusJunction]

From what I was told by the guys at the port, the NJ/NY ports will all be able to handle the new ships. They are all currently being expanded and the Staten Island port is going to be made double it's size within 3 years... (and the rail yard, which is small now, will double in size as well). The only problem is one bridge does not have the height clearance for these new ships. They told me that they are addressing that problem, but I have no idea how.

[DutchRailnut]

Rumor is their lowering the water

The long and short of the sad story is all these boxes on these ships are not export, but 95% import of cheap chineese produced crap we keep buying in this country.
As long as we keep this up, we will send this country in a tailspin, making us poorer and poorer.
what was once ships with 3000 Boxes(teu) are now ships with 14 000 Boxes(teu)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MSC_Beatrice

[SecaucusJunction]

First, your numbers are way off. I dont remember the exact numbers of the deficit, but it is no where near 95%.

Second, maybe this movement will catch on and you wont have to worry about it...

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2 ... 4_CV_N.htm

[DutchRailnut]

Don't just say Im wrong, produce the numbers !

[Don31]

The only problem is one bridge does not have the height clearance for these new ships. They told me that they are addressing that problem, but I have no idea how.

You're talking about the Bayonne Bridge, whose airdraft of 151 feet is too low for the next generation of container ships due to come online in the next few years. An alternatives analysis is currently underway to evaluate several different scenarios to address the problem.

[n01jd1]

Since the Panama Canal is supposed to open for larger ships as well as a greater number of ships in 2014, what effect does everyone think that will have on the railroads in NJ? Good, bad, no change? I've heard all different types of scenarios from more traffic, to less traffic, to not much change at all.... so I'm just wondering what the "experts" think on the situation.

I think that will depend on which mode of transportation is cheaper and faster. If its the ships, kiss intermodal traffic on the railroads goodbye.

[Tommy Meehan]

Don't just say Im wrong, produce the numbers !

I'm not even sure what you guys are talking about exactly but if it's about Chinese imports, they are our biggest supplier but they supply less than 30% of total US imports. Our biggest trade partner overall is actually Canada. If it's our trade imbalance with China it's bad but not 95%.

Here's a link that shows ALL our imports/exports by dollar value-

http://dataweb.usitc.gov/scripts/cy_m3_run.asp

----in million dollars----
1 --Canada - $224,584.1 [imports] - $171,695.2 [exports]
2 --China - $295,544.5 [imports] - $65,123.9 [exports]

[Tommy Meehan]

An interesting report about the impact of the expanded Panama Canal on US Intermodal freight was released by the US Department of Agriculture this past January.

The report (you can't copy text) says a major advantage for Trans-Pacific shipping companies using West Coast intermodal ports is that it allows them to turn their ships faster, thus allowing smaller fleets.

It also says container traffic to US ports is expected to double or triple by 2030. Port capacity and the need for ships to burn cleaner and more expensive fuels provide railroads with opportunities to remain competitive.

Here's the link to the report-

http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cac ... Gty0VAda2g

[SecaucusJunction]

Everything I'm reading seems to indicate that there will be a great deal of growth at the east coast ports as well as the Eastern railroads. Some analysts think anything destined for a final rail East of the Mississippi river will come through East Coast ports. This is the reason for Expressrail NJ as well as the NS Heartland Corridor. PANYNJ sees a large area of growth in regions from Toronto to Montreal in Canada.

Now all they have to do is raise the Bayonne Bridge and they'll be in business.

[Don31]

Now all they have to do is raise the Bayonne Bridge and they'll be in business.

Its in the works, trust me.

[CarterB]

Just wondering, the new ships just taller? or longer? If longer, how're they going to negotiate the 110 degree turn into Newark Bay from the Kill? Bring on the unit trains!!!!

[Don31]

Just wondering, the new ships just taller? or longer? If longer, how're they going to negotiate the 110 degree turn into Newark Bay from the Kill? Bring on the unit trains!!!!

Its my understanding that the next generation of container ships are both longer and higher. There was a great piece in the NY Times about them about a year or so ago, IIRC.