Mr. Nelligan,
You are right in many ways Portland - Montreal service is a really questionable proposition. There are several factors present now, which 40 years ago did not exist, to encourage improved ridership on this line. For some time now the Canadian dollar has been at rough parity or stronger than the American dollar. The change in the traditional trading band fluctuations of the two currencies has had an effect on the travel of Canadians to Maine, even going back now for almost 20 years. The cost of driving now is far more than it used to be making it a less attractive option for travel in either direction. The other major factor that has changed is the demographic shift in the population, which on average is much older than it used to be and less tolerant of long, difficult drives.
The question of the customs arrangement is obviously a serious one. I don't think however it is impossible to overcome. Whether or not it would damage the ability of this train to compete on timekeeping with driving would depend on weather conditions. I agree with you that in the summer this train would have ongoing difficulty making better time than driving, unless it is precleared.
On the matter of upgrading the former Grand Trunk, happily it is one of the best maintained private railroads in Maine. The amount of work that would need to be done to upgrade this line is far less than what had to be done to the GRS/PAR main line to Plaistow when the Downeaster service began. SLR has already laid CWR on several sections of their line, and if you have ever seen the line in person you'll notice the large quantities of clean ballast and the well maintained rails and grade crossing signals. I believe the low need for capital investment is one of the most attractive pieces of the entire proposition to Maine. As far as equipment goes Amtrak always seems to find something for Maine, probably because our service arrangements are financially very attractive to them, with the continued work being done now to bring more Amfleets back into service I would imagine they'll be able to scrounge up at least a few cars for us.
The funding is a more problematic question. I haven't heard any models proposed for how this service would be funded. However, I do believe that the old lessons and assumptions of the post-war era no longer apply as they did in 1968 when the GT finally abandoned even seasonal service to Portland. I don't think that just becaue things are 'different' answers the money question in of itself I do think it is no longer a certainty that the service would lose money hand over fist. I just keep reminding myself that the Downeaster was never a sure thing. There were many people who doubted whether or not this service could succeed against modern and very well maintained interstate highways. Contrary to the expectations of some it has done quite well and in the meantime established it self as one of the premier, if not the premier, corridor service in the United states. This train will have no such competition from roads. It will start the game at about parity against the roads and if it survives for more than five years will probably begin to make steady progress on this too.
You are right in many ways Portland - Montreal service is a really questionable proposition. There are several factors present now, which 40 years ago did not exist, to encourage improved ridership on this line. For some time now the Canadian dollar has been at rough parity or stronger than the American dollar. The change in the traditional trading band fluctuations of the two currencies has had an effect on the travel of Canadians to Maine, even going back now for almost 20 years. The cost of driving now is far more than it used to be making it a less attractive option for travel in either direction. The other major factor that has changed is the demographic shift in the population, which on average is much older than it used to be and less tolerant of long, difficult drives.
The question of the customs arrangement is obviously a serious one. I don't think however it is impossible to overcome. Whether or not it would damage the ability of this train to compete on timekeeping with driving would depend on weather conditions. I agree with you that in the summer this train would have ongoing difficulty making better time than driving, unless it is precleared.
On the matter of upgrading the former Grand Trunk, happily it is one of the best maintained private railroads in Maine. The amount of work that would need to be done to upgrade this line is far less than what had to be done to the GRS/PAR main line to Plaistow when the Downeaster service began. SLR has already laid CWR on several sections of their line, and if you have ever seen the line in person you'll notice the large quantities of clean ballast and the well maintained rails and grade crossing signals. I believe the low need for capital investment is one of the most attractive pieces of the entire proposition to Maine. As far as equipment goes Amtrak always seems to find something for Maine, probably because our service arrangements are financially very attractive to them, with the continued work being done now to bring more Amfleets back into service I would imagine they'll be able to scrounge up at least a few cars for us.
The funding is a more problematic question. I haven't heard any models proposed for how this service would be funded. However, I do believe that the old lessons and assumptions of the post-war era no longer apply as they did in 1968 when the GT finally abandoned even seasonal service to Portland. I don't think that just becaue things are 'different' answers the money question in of itself I do think it is no longer a certainty that the service would lose money hand over fist. I just keep reminding myself that the Downeaster was never a sure thing. There were many people who doubted whether or not this service could succeed against modern and very well maintained interstate highways. Contrary to the expectations of some it has done quite well and in the meantime established it self as one of the premier, if not the premier, corridor service in the United states. This train will have no such competition from roads. It will start the game at about parity against the roads and if it survives for more than five years will probably begin to make steady progress on this too.
gokeefe
