NLX Northern Lights Express HSR MN Duluth-Twin Cities

ryanch wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:00 pm >but the small proportion of Duluth residents willing to drive to Superior makes the Northern Lights Express a much tougher proportion.

Do you have experience of Duluth, or a source for that statement? I'm pretty skeptical.

This isn't Phoenix/Maricopa. Duluth and Superior are across two bridges from each other in a setting where most everyone has to have access to a car to survive. Even from north of Duluth, once you're on 67 heading past the station in downtown Duluth, it's another 4 minutes to downtown Superior.
Parts of Duluth are closer to downtown Superior than to downtown Duluth.

I do have experience, as a Minnesota native who frequently visited Duluth (though I haven’t lived in MN recently) and who has family in Duluth/surroundings. The distance isn’t far but it’s like a different world - there’s only two bridges between the cities and it shows. A new Grassy Point Draw might be worth it just as a transit connector. Point being, riders to one city don’t frequently step foot in the other, so the more connections the better.

Tadman wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:23 pm Regarding interline with the Builder, consider the people riding to Duluth. The industries there are tourism (summer cottages, hunting, hiking, canoeing), mining, and shipping.

The mining companies are mostly in places like Chicago, Cleveland, and Pitt. It's a stretch to ride Chicago to Duluth (plus 2 hours into the woods for the mine) and a total non-starter from CLE or Pitt.

The shipping companies are mostly in Cleveland, again a non-starter.

That leaves people with affairs in Milwaukee, like banking, legal, and government. And tourists.

Regarding tourists, I'm not quite sure where they come from but I bet 50% is twin cities. That's why I suggest continuing a few frequencies to Two Harbors, at least for summer. Certain operations like Algoma Central, Alaska, and Via Sagueny trains have many flag stops and will carry canoes in/out. It might be useful. Unfortunately Two Harbors is not that far up the lake, and the tracks turn north into the arrowhead region (and are CN's) after Two Harbors.

Most of the traffic is forecast to be tourists, college students (UMn-Duluth, UW-Superior, a couple privates), and people with business in either the Twin Cities or the Twin Ports. I suppose you might get some Chicagoans visiting too, which brings me to your first point: you’re right that it isn’t worth interlining with the Builder, at least not for more than one round-trip daily of at least four RTs.

And during the summer, I’m serious about the North Shore Scenic providing connections to Two Harbors. They do something approaching flag stops for the cottage dwellers along the shore.

Remember there will need to have a way for Duluth equipment to rotate to CHI for regular maintenance ! That means at least one thru trip or a CHI - MSP trip with the equipment.

east point wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:59 pm Remember there will need to have a way for Duluth equipment to rotate to CHI for regular maintenance ! That means at least one thru trip or a CHI - MSP trip with the equipment.

If Amtrak yes, if MnDOT-administered not necessarily. There’s a non-zero chance that the state hires BNSF to run the service using self-owned equipment, as with Northstar Commuter Rail.

I find it curious that having to take a local bus or Uber five minutes longer across a bridge to Superior would be more of a deal killer than having to endure another 30-45 minutes on the train to get to downtown Duluth...

eolesen wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:02 am I find it curious that having to take a local bus or Uber five minutes longer across a bridge to Superior would be more of a deal killer than having to endure another 30-45 minutes on the train to get to downtown Duluth...

Curious, yes, but talk to the locals and they would agree. If you have any ideas that would better weld the two towns together, be my guest - but terminating a state-funded train across the harbor for no apparent reason except a longer ride isn’t one of them.

An interesting note from the North Shore Scenic website:
>The Two Harbors train excursion is subject to delays to due Canadian National Railway (CN) freight traffic. Please consider this when making plans for after the train ride. Delays are rare, but can be an hour or more.

It runs out in the morning, back in the afternoon Friday through Sunday from Memorial Day through Columbus Day, except whimsically, the train seemed to take peak summer vacation, the first two weekends in August, off.

That's the full Two Harbors turn - 30 miles from Duluth. NSS also has a kids trip to the Duluth borders, and a few weekend evening trips that go 16 miles and back.

If I were Amtrak or the states funding this, I'd treat the NSS the way Starbucks treats local coffee shops -- let them do my market research. If the Duluth run delivers enough people to make the extension worthwhile, elbow out the NSS.

A 3-day/week operation run by an excursion company will likely be the best and highest use, with an outside shot at an additional Monday morning inbound if schedules lined up for a weekender to get back to Minneapolis for a half day of work. If a daily run to Twin Harbors can come close to breaking even, Amtrak should be extending every Hiawatha to Door Co. or the Dells, and begin hourly commuter service to Saugatuck. There have to be 20 times as many summer people at each of those destinations as in the area beyond Duluth. It's not like Twin Harbors itself is a genuine destination. There are two small B & Bs, and a couple motels along the highway a mile or so from the station.

And no car rental. If the train is extended, I'll pick up the Budget franchise rights.

east point wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:59 pm Remember there will need to have a way for Duluth equipment to rotate to CHI for regular maintenance ! That means at least one thru trip or a CHI - MSP trip with the equipment.

The Heartland Flyer needs to rotate equipment to Chicago as well, usually accomplished by moving extra non revenue cars with the Texas Eagle. An Amtrak train between St. Paul and Duluth could do the same with the Empire Builder. Not an impossible task!

mtuandrew wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:22 am

eolesen wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:02 am I find it curious that having to take a local bus or Uber five minutes longer across a bridge to Superior would be more of a deal killer than having to endure another 30-45 minutes on the train to get to downtown Duluth...

Curious, yes, but talk to the locals and they would agree. If you have any ideas that would better weld the two towns together, be my guest - but terminating a state-funded train across the harbor for no apparent reason except a longer ride isn’t one of them.

Everyone wants a pony until they find out they have to clean up after it and feed it...

Moderator Note: moved a lot of posts from Amtrak to here. If NLX ends up being an Amtrak service, we will move them back and merge them into the thread discussing the historical Amtrak North Star and Arrowhead.

Speaking of which, any progress on or news about Northern Lights Express recently?

Pensyfan19 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 20, 2020 8:16 pm Speaking of which, any progress on or news about Northern Lights Express recently?

The latest I can find, https://kbjr6.com/2020/02/10/nlx-projec ... e-funding/
The NEPA process has been completed with a FONSI issued, but this project is still waiting on funding from both the USDOT and MNDOT.

electricron wrote: ↑Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:51 am

Pensyfan19 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 20, 2020 8:16 pm Speaking of which, any progress on or news about Northern Lights Express recently?

The latest I can find, https://kbjr6.com/2020/02/10/nlx-projec ... e-funding/
The NEPA process has been completed with a FONSI issued, but this project is still waiting on funding from both the USDOT and MNDOT.

If Northern Lights Express were to operate as a private railroad, the they wouldn't have to wait on government funding since they would be funded by the private sector. All they would need is just the ok from BNSF for running trains on their tracks. (Sorry. I'm Pensyfan19. Of course I'm going to talk about railroads being ran b y private corporations instead of the government. Read my signerature.)

So, why would a private company want to run this line? Even in the old days, it was so difficult to make a profit on the Twin Cities-Twin Ports market that GN, NP, and Soo Line ran jointly-marketed pool trains - a ticket on one would let you use all three services, so each line would only need to run two or three round-trips rather than five or six. And that was before Interstate 35 was completed or even started.

mtuandrew wrote: ↑Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:48 am So, why would a private company want to run this line? Even in the old days, it was so difficult to make a profit on the Twin Cities-Twin Ports market that GN, NP, and Soo Line ran jointly-marketed pool trains - a ticket on one would let you use all three services, so each line would only need to run two or three round-trips rather than five or six. And that was before Interstate 35 was completed or even started.

Also keep in mind that this was during a time when the U.S. had half of the population that it does today. Not to mention the potential of increased rail service bringing more people to cities and towns along the route.

Pensyfan19 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 21, 2020 12:45 pmAlso keep in mind that this was during a time when the U.S. had half of the population that it does today. Not to mention the potential of increased rail service bringing more people to cities and towns along the route.

A) half the population, but between 1/4 and 1/10 of the cars depending on the year. Cars today also outpace rail service then. Pool service on this route lasted only until the 1960s if I’m not mistaken, and passenger service went away in 1971 with only intermittent government-run MSP-Duluth service after that.
B) at the time, the US Post Office directly subsidized these trains through mail shipments to the extent that a majority of their profit came through mail carriage. There’s no parallel less-than-carload market between MSP and Duluth-Superior today, and companies like Amazon and UPS have signaled disinterest at best in higher-speed rail in the USA.
C) what intermediate towns? Other than Hinckley’s casino, there isn’t a location that would be at all worthwhile for a private railroad. Government-funded commuter rail as far as Cambridge is another matter.