The future of the Brightline model in the US

We’ve seen that Brightline’s model can be sustainable, successful and profitable. Where do the members of this board think the model is going? Obviously we know of the expansion plans, the new Florida stations, the Las Vegas route etc. but can this model be successful in other major parts of this country? Would this model work in a state like New York? A region who’s politics are intertwined heavily with the MTA? Do we see other companies form and become successful under this model in the future? Your thoughts. This has been an exciting project to watch manifest during its short existence.

I think it is able to be replicated, but WHERE is the caveat. Brightline has a good deal invested in the real estate side of things as well. If they are not able to leverage a good amount of development opportunities along a proposed route then the route may not be viable and they won't take the chance. Florida is growing, and if you check development news in the Miami area you'll find a good deal of new things popping up.

I cannot see Brightline in an area that is not actively growing, such as many midwest cities. They are taking an approach that requires a higher demand for development than many states currently support. It's not an end-all-be-all, but dependent on local conditions. Another factor is the poor/nonexistent Amtrak service and high road congestion in the areas they've chosen to build in so far.

To answer your question, I can't see them going near New York even in the long term for many reasons. Amtrak has a very strong presence, and currently has numerous routes in and around NYC, along with 3 commuter railroads filling in the local gaps. Unless some incredible development opportunity develops that could make them swim in money enough to build their own system from scratch in the area they won't go to New York.

Where I see them going next is Texas. Specifically Ft. Worth - San Antonio.

How about the Midwest hub? That region gets a lot of hype with passenger rail proposals but it has almost no passenger rail today. Imagine the development that privately operated passenger rail like this were to be brought to profitable cities such as Louisville, Nashville, Minneapolis, St. Pual, Kansas City, Chicago, Columbus, Detroit, etc...

I'm more impressed by the speed of the construction and acquiring rolling stock. Has it been profitable, and by what measure? It's borrowed at least $2b with tax-free bonds. Sustainable, same question? It does use 6% - 20% biofuel. One question I have about the construction, is driving rail spikes with a massive single-person hand-held pneumatic hammer the standard? About half the spikes on the Cocoa railcam were driven that way, the others with the same hammer on a cart.

Before we start talking about NY/NJ/CT, I'm hoping Texas and NV/CA work out. Florida was a good political and financial situation for Brightline. The state had rejected money for Amtrak HSR; Miami Tri-rail was slow to build; Miami airport flubbed giving Amtrak a better location; real estate ventures; local gov'ts paying for stations in good locations; enough capital to close for Covid19 much longer than other transit; young workforce; Softbank and Grupo Mexico splitting the pax/freight companies, with the FEC deep in the heritage of South Florida; unknown bennies to the pols, despite Florida's sunshine laws; tolerance for countless at-grade-crossings; tourists; and great density, and chaotic highways, from West Palm south to Miami. Regarding the FEC's coastal route over Tri-Rail's more inland track, you have to wonder if the FEC railbanked it. It's doubtful freight interference will be an issue for Brightline.

Amtrak has to do better, that said. And commuter rail.

Can't wait to see how Orlando Airport - Disney Springs - Tampa is sorted. The politics of Sunrail are tough in that "purple" area, and here comes Brightline. To be fair to the nimby's on the southern alignment, the northern, business-supported one does look straighter. (BL claims it would cost an extra $1b.). But in an ideal world, the northern route could be Sunrail's from the airport. Meanwhile Amtrak has the T-shaped route to Tampa once a day, and strange ticketing policy about local stops. Similarities to Miami in some ways.

HVrail, welcome to the forum.

You kind of lost me at your first sentence. It is way too soon to say that Brightline is sustainable, successful, and profitable. I feel fairly confident in saying that alone (without including the real estate development income), it has no hope of ever being profitable. Whether it is sustainable depends on the stomach of its owners to take the losses. And successful is entirely a matter of perspective.

Honestly, I love Brightline. It’s a great way to travel between WPB and Miami. But I’m not at all sure it will survive the test of time (and continuing financial losses).

Jim

I think the primary problem with this - which, of course, extends to all passenger rail - is that it hinges on freight lines being cooperative. I personally don't think the model is too viable because of my broader view on private rail; if anything, it shouldn't take the place of essential services.

I could see P&W doing something similar with the right operator on their line between Worcester and Providence. There's been other recent proposals for private rail service on the line, even if they haven't been by reputable outfits.
P&W has some property in East Providence that they're been trying to develop. P&W's yard in Worcester is near downtown and Green Island which is seeing some development activity-new baseball stadium + some res development, but that yard is very busy and I don't think they could do without it. The ROW is also much curvier than the FEC precluding high(ish) speed service.
Failing private development, RI does eventually want to get commuter service running between Woonsocket and Providence on the line.

The 3C + D corridor in Ohio is the perfect market for a Brightline Ohio service. Given Ohio's political stance toward passenger rail, this may be the only way service may return to that corridor anytime soon.

All very good points and observations and as some have pointed out, it may be too early to determine the success and profitability of the operation. Though I believe Brightline will be successful, especially once COVID restrictions are fully in our rear view mirror.

I bring up New York because there is the very strong potential in a long neglected and gaping hole in NY area rail transit, where the need is becoming more apparent - passenger service on the CSX river line (west shore line). The ridership and attractiveness would be the least of the problems in this concept. The Hudson Valley is among NY’s most rapidly growing regions, with development already taking place. Real estate development potential along this line to make this model work is more than abundant. The major obstacles of course would be cooperation from CSX, obtaining a route to cross the hudson and operational access to grand central or Moynihan station. No easy feats to say the least, but enough political pressure and support could ease that gap. With Amtrak fully vested with the empire corridor and the MTA likely unable or unwilling to provide the resources to provide such service, an option for a rail operation operating under this model could be a strong solution.

There are other strong candidates for future route concepts and some have pointed out in this thread. This is certainly the right time for innovative ideas such as Brightline to flourish. I hope to see more continued success for them in the near future with the hope of sparking future similar growth.

If it were permitted, I could see some of the Class 1's being interested in operating either a private label passenger service or state funded corridor services, but it would have to be a mutually beneficial arrangement where they control the scheduling.

The biggest opportunities unfortunately aren't going to be in chokepoints like NYC or even in Chicago.

From what I understand and correct me if I’m wrong, Brightline is owned by the same holding company that also owned FEC at the same time. I’m assuming that was the “in” needed with the freight line operating that line to acquire an operating agreement on their tracks. From what I understand is that the holding company no longer owns FEC. That key component at the time though I’m sure played a major role in the fruition of this service.

My casual observations have been that Brightline has had some difficulty finding buyers for their bonds (not an expert). If that is the case I suspect that capital markets are going to be very reluctant to loan the company any more money before the viability of Miami-Orlando and LA (ish) - Las Vegas are proven.

Should all of those stars align, I might suggest Atlanta-Charlotte as the third Brightline route. A new, greenfield, route for HSR has been selected by GADOT as the locally preferred alternative. Both endpoints (and the middle) are growing like weeds. The route into Atlanta has not yet been pinpointed (leaving some room for real estate development opportunities), and there is potential for continuing trains to the NEC along state-owned tracks. Granted the capital requirements of the new route will be enormous and will certainly require some type of PPP to happen (Jon Ossof attempted to slide $10 billion into BBB for the route so folks in GA are at least thinking about it). Other than capital costs this might be a very strong option for the company (and one that has been mentioned several times in Brightline public filings).

[Brightline missed a huge Charlotte real estate opportunity, the RFP for Gateway Station are redevelopment has been completed and a developer for the downtown district has been selected. This area will be much like Miami Central in function and a big bigger IIRC.]

eolesen wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 7:46 pm If it were permitted, I could see some of the Class 1's being interested in operating either a private label passenger service or state funded corridor services, but it would have to be a mutually beneficial arrangement where they control the scheduling.

The biggest opportunities unfortunately aren't going to be in chokepoints like NYC or even in Chicago.

Doesn't BNSF do this already? They operate a few passenger trains, most notably the Metra BNSF Line, and I believe they also provide the crew for Northstar, Sounder and Metrolink, and I believe they also have involvement with the proposed Arrow Light Rail Line and Northern Lights Express.

high-frequency and class 1 controlled are oxymorons

Yet the UP and BNSF manage do do just that on their Chicago commuter services.

30+ services per day *per line* that are intermixed with freight (as well as Amtrak on the BNSF), and they've managed this for over 100 years.