The big ax just fell. Long distance to 3x/week.

Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Wed Dec 09, 2020 9:10 amBut for these reasons as well as my previously noted intrusion they represent to the Class I's Precision Railroading model, "it's time for the Drumheads".

In a working precision scheduled railroad model Amtrak would get their scheduled slots along with all the "precision" scheduled freight trains. The COVID induced experiment with reduced Amtrak frequencies should provide ample evidence that it is the freight railroads that cannot meet a schedule - even with those pesky Amtrak LD trains out of the way.

It must be an amazing world where freight trains never break down or separate or derail or have engine or crew problems or have any other problems that interfere with precision scheduling. How are the freight roads doing on non-Amtrak days? How well does PSR work on roads that did not have an Amtrak train a year ago (pre COVID reductions). Is it all sunshine and roses?

If you want to blame the failures of PSR on Amtrak please start with facts (and more than the antidotal "one Amtrak broke down three weeks ago and caused a single three hour delay" unless you list all freight issues in the same period). Do the research and PROVE that having an occasional Amtrak train on the line is the actual cause of failure of PSR as you propose. Your claim, your proof. The class is yours, professor.

justalurker66 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 12, 2020 11:29 am

Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Wed Dec 09, 2020 9:10 amBut for these reasons as well as my previously noted intrusion they represent to the Class I's Precision Railroading model, "it's time for the Drumheads".

In a working precision scheduled railroad model Amtrak would get their scheduled slots along with all the "precision" scheduled freight trains. The COVID induced experiment with reduced Amtrak frequencies should provide ample evidence that it is the freight railroads that cannot meet a schedule - even with those pesky Amtrak LD trains out of the way.

It must be an amazing world where freight trains never break down or separate or derail or have engine or crew problems or have any other problems that interfere with precision scheduling. How are the freight roads doing on non-Amtrak days? How well does PSR work on roads that did not have an Amtrak train a year ago (pre COVID reductions). Is it all sunshine and roses?

If you want to blame the failures of PSR on Amtrak please start with facts (and more than the antidotal "one Amtrak broke down three weeks ago and caused a single three hour delay" unless you list all freight issues in the same period). Do the research and PROVE that having an occasional Amtrak train on the line is the actual cause of failure of PSR as you propose. Your claim, your proof. The class is yours, professor.

As some who runs the stuff for a living. For the life of me I cant figure out why me at 79mph cant get around a freight traveling 50mph. Its easy math the old timers could make these type moves and never delay anything. Now is west on one east on two what you have been riding yellows for 40 miles so be it.

As a side note if this here PSR is so great then why is Union Pacific (cant spell stupid without UP in the middle) losing trains loads of business to BNSF where if the train is ready send it no schedules just good old fashioned RRing.

I know I don't see the big picture...

The reason BNSF is gaining business is because BNSF chose NOT to follow PSR. I mentioned over in the BNSF forum how BNSF regularly runs a special train for UPS between Belen, New Mexico and Alliance, Texas with sometimes as little as SIX cars. This was in reply to a post of his in regard to PSR and BNSF. He never replied.

new-ceo-t172120.html#p1553405

The PSR plans are nothing more than "asset stripping" on a large scale to keep Wall Street happy and will end very badly for the railroads in the long run.

Railjunkie wrote: ↑Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:38 am As some who runs the stuff for a living. For the life of me I cant figure out why me at 79mph cant get around a freight traveling 50mph. Its easy math the old timers could make these type moves and never delay anything. Now is west on one east on two what you have been riding yellows for 40 miles so be it.

A lot of these LD trains are on single track territory. A lot of times, the train ahead is doing 50mph and can't get into a siding fast enough, so the LD has to slow down. Conversely, when there's a meet, and the freights are going insanely long, the LD essentially has to go into a siding (which it will fit into) for the too-long freight to pass... at 50 mph.

This isn't just a matter of math, it's a matter of track capacity.

Ah, long train meets, they do not do 'saw bys' anymore, that is what got Casey Jones 120 years ago.

PSR just appears to be drag freights [remember them] just a little faster, lump all the freight together with no distinction to what is being carried. Maybe BNSF is doing PSR with allowance for who the customer is.

LD trains could be included with any corridors they traversed with seating reserved for certain sections. The railroads did that 100 years ago, checked old consist books recently had certain accomodations reserved for specific originations along a train's route, then it was sleeping or parlor space, later coach seats when they started trains like The Pacemaker or TrailBlazer. From what experience I had with Amtrak it seems they align reservations on first come first basis no matter with no specific alowance like that, I could be wrong too, but that is what it seemed.

RRspatch wrote: ↑Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:17 pm The reason BNSF is gaining business is because BNSF chose NOT to follow PSR. I mentioned over in the BNSF forum how BNSF regularly runs a special train for UPS between Belen, New Mexico and Alliance, Texas with sometimes as little as SIX cars. This was in reply to a post of his in regard to PSR and BNSF. He never replied.

new-ceo-t172120.html#p1553405

The PSR plans are nothing more than "asset stripping" on a large scale to keep Wall Street happy and will end very badly for the railroads in the long run.

Let’s wrap up the discussion on PSR here, except as related to Amtrak ops - it’s being discussed in the BNSF and General Class 1 forums.

The big similarity though is that Amtrak is also torn between minimizing trains to a few core business centers (the passenger equivalent of PSR) or seeking business anywhere it can find it (the passenger equivalent of BNSF’s model). Those folks advocating cessation or curtailment of LD service are, in effect, asking to impose the Precision Scheduled Railroading concept on Amtrak. It’s how you would perform asset stripping on a government agency, to adapt RRspatch’s commentary.

Moving to 3x/week is understandable given the dramatic drop in travel. There’s never been such low ridership and it won’t & shouldn’t pick up until late spring at earliest. As a government-owned corporation Amtrak should be encouraging people to stay home! Let’s throw open the doors and pour on the advertising in Q3 2021, assuming a high vaccination rate and high effectiveness.

Big article in January trains magazine, discussing the effects of going to 3 times a week last time(1990's). Of course at that time , demand wasnt down due to Covid, but basically the summary is going to 3 times a week didn't save significant money , and hurt ridership.
The possible good that came of it, that Amtrak business line management worked hard to prove their train was worth going back to daily . Regional menus , parlour cars , and train rider associations all came out of this drive.
Crisis / change is always a good time to innovate , and it is perhaps disappointing that Amtrak has just chosen to cut outright, rather than try different things. Perhaps , when the trains are going back to daily , we will see some positive changes.

STrRedWolf wrote: ↑Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:39 pm

Railjunkie wrote: ↑Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:38 am As some who runs the stuff for a living. For the life of me I cant figure out why me at 79mph cant get around a freight traveling 50mph. Its easy math the old timers could make these type moves and never delay anything. Now is west on one east on two what you have been riding yellows for 40 miles so be it.

A lot of these LD trains are on single track territory. A lot of times, the train ahead is doing 50mph and can't get into a siding fast enough, so the LD has to slow down. Conversely, when there's a meet, and the freights are going insanely long, the LD essentially has to go into a siding (which it will fit into) for the too-long freight to pass... at 50 mph.

This isn't just a matter of math, it's a matter of track capacity.

Not to be a.... A hopper of grain dosent care if its 3 hours late into XYZ However a passenger does. I can see a hot shot UPS train but those are normally 60 to 70mph trains. Not going to effect me much. Dispatching takes the ability to know the territory, have the ability to think ahead and be willing to do it. Ive seen both numerous times. The guys who could run the railroad are slowly retiring the new ones like to watch the pretty lights. Its just like being on single track. They are afraid to make decisions on what they see happening on their board. Make a mistake and face the wrath of the chief or worse yet have company HQ call.
\
Ill give you an example, Going west to SYR get stuck behind an intermodel just like always no big deal. Double track the whole way. This day he has a RF no comm 30mph restriction period. Me GREAT ILL BE OUT HERE AAAAAAALLLLLLL DDDDDAAAAAAAAYYYYY. I was 2H 45M turned into almost 5H in 148 miles. Could the dispatcher run me around I would thinks so as I passed no east bound traffic. Even the crew of the freight offered to stop or slow up so I could get around them. Should have been an easy move. Cant throw a switch what if it wont line back normal what if the Amtrak breaks down in front of it. What if the signal doesent come back in. What if... What if... Old timer hey I going to hold ABC at XYZ shouldn't cost ABC but a minute or two.

Single track was there any way they could have put the Amtrak out there first? Are the both traveling the same speed? Stops if any? Perhaps adjust the time on the freight after all PSR is going to save the industry. If Im late Ill take my punishment but if its a tie and I have no stops on the single track let me go Ill get out of your way.

Again I guess I dont see the big picture.

RRspatch wrote: ↑Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:17 pm The reason BNSF is gaining business is because BNSF chose NOT to follow PSR. I mentioned over in the BNSF forum how BNSF regularly runs a special train for UPS between Belen, New Mexico and Alliance, Texas with sometimes as little as SIX cars. This was in reply to a post of his in regard to PSR and BNSF. He never replied.

new-ceo-t172120.html#p1553405

The PSR plans are nothing more than "asset stripping" on a large scale to keep Wall Street happy and will end very badly for the railroads in the long run.

Couldn't agree with you more. Why keep trying to re invent the wheel

Railjunkie wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:42 am

STrRedWolf wrote: ↑Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:39 pm

Railjunkie wrote: ↑Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:38 am As some who runs the stuff for a living. For the life of me I cant figure out why me at 79mph cant get around a freight traveling 50mph. Its easy math the old timers could make these type moves and never delay anything. Now is west on one east on two what you have been riding yellows for 40 miles so be it.

A lot of these LD trains are on single track territory. A lot of times, the train ahead is doing 50mph and can't get into a siding fast enough, so the LD has to slow down. Conversely, when there's a meet, and the freights are going insanely long, the LD essentially has to go into a siding (which it will fit into) for the too-long freight to pass... at 50 mph.

This isn't just a matter of math, it's a matter of track capacity.

Not to be a.... A hopper of grain dosent care if its 3 hours late into XYZ However a passenger does. I can see a hot shot UPS train but those are normally 60 to 70mph trains. Not going to effect me much. Dispatching takes the ability to know the territory, have the ability to think ahead and be willing to do it. Ive seen both numerous times. The guys who could run the railroad are slowly retiring the new ones like to watch the pretty lights. Its just like being on single track. They are afraid to make decisions on what they see happening on their board. Make a mistake and face the wrath of the chief or worse yet have company HQ call.
\
Ill give you an example, Going west to SYR get stuck behind an intermodel just like always no big deal. Double track the whole way. This day he has a RF no comm 30mph restriction period. Me GREAT ILL BE OUT HERE AAAAAAALLLLLLL DDDDDAAAAAAAAYYYYY. I was 2H 45M turned into almost 5H in 148 miles. Could the dispatcher run me around I would thinks so as I passed no east bound traffic. Even the crew of the freight offered to stop or slow up so I could get around them. Should have been an easy move. Cant throw a switch what if it wont line back normal what if the Amtrak breaks down in front of it. What if the signal doesent come back in. What if... What if... Old timer hey I going to hold ABC at XYZ shouldn't cost ABC but a minute or two.

Single track was there any way they could have put the Amtrak out there first? Are the both traveling the same speed? Stops if any? Perhaps adjust the time on the freight after all PSR is going to save the industry. If Im late Ill take my punishment but if its a tie and I have no stops on the single track let me go Ill get out of your way.

Again I guess I dont see the big picture.

Maybe you do see the big picture, its the dispatches/freights that don't.

I don't know to what extent this book addresses "The Gospel According to Saint Elwood". I'd like to think it does , but who's to say he figured the author will never understand it, so therefore he will bloviate about becoming the CEO of four different roads. After all, he was Chessie's CEO when the book was written, and it could be deemed he is discussing proprietary information if he addressed Precision Railroading in too great detail.

The book is not available digitally at anybody's site. If it provides sufficient detail regarding Precision Railroading (the term by which I first heard the practices addressed)/PSR, then I'd be all in. Otherwise, I'm backlogged at Google books; two on Trump and one on 9/11.

Observed:

#3 (14)

2 P-42, 3 "Pvt Rm", Diner, Lounge, 2 Coach, Co-Bag

#5 (14)

2 P-42, 3 "Pvt Rm", Diner, Lounge, 2 Coach

Railjunkie wrote: ↑Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:42 am Again I guess I dont see the big picture.

The big picture is that freight owns the roads. There is an incentive for the 60-70 MPH intermodals to make their schedules. What is the incentive to get the the 79 MPH Amtraks through on their schedule? As long as an Amtrak doesn't slow down an intermodal it can follow an intermodal or slow freight.

That being said I see more good handling of Amtrak than poor handling. Unfortunately the good handling gets overlooked as "the railroads just doing their job" and the poor handling is portrayed as if the railroad can never get anything right. Despite the ratio of good to poor.

Anyone who thinks the current 3x a week is a plan to make this permanent must count on Amtrak management being nuts or deliberately trying to run the company into the ground.

We know from the Sunset and Cardinal that in "normal" times cost recovery on the 3x a week is far worse than the daily LD's. Plummeting revenue eats up any savings.

Not so in corona times. Revenue is so low that even depreciating it further doesn't matter much as long as you can save some dollars.

This is a thought out example just to illustrate the mechanics:

In normal times:

Daily train:
Revenue 100
Cost 200
Deficit 100

If that's cut to 3x a week ridership/revenue typically plummets to around half, as the train stops being useful for anything but pure land excursions on a flexible schedule. However not all costs are cut in half, as some, like stations, are fixed, and others actually grow like crews having more days away from home with no train to staff. So let's say:
Revenue 50
Cost 140
Deficit 90

The savings for the company is thus only 10, but with a worse cost recovery and a far larger subsidy per passenger.

But in corona times, where maybe 80 percent of the revenue has gone already, the numbers for the daily train look like this:
Revenue 20
Cost 200
Deficit 180

And if you then cut that to 3x week, further cutting revenue in half:
Revenue 10
Cost 140
Deficit 130

Now your savings is 50, and your loss in passengers in absolute numbers is far less. Unless you're bailed out from Congress, 3x week suddenly becomes sound (and possibly necessary) economic management.

But staying on 3x week when ridership starts to recover makes no sense, even if the grand plan is to get rid of the LD's all together. Amtrak would saddle itself with an albatros that might kill the company either financially or politically before the company would be allowed to terminate its long distance network.

mtuandrew wrote: ↑Sun Dec 13, 2020 3:45 pm Those folks advocating cessation or curtailment of LD service are, in effect, asking to impose the Precision Scheduled Railroading concept on Amtrak.

It would be much more arguable, that Amtrak's long-standing business model is very much PSR: "We are going to run a train, it leaves this station at this time, be there or be square." As opposed to a more customized, passenger-centric model.

The LD network is quite antiquated and followed by virtually no other country in the world. Expecting a train from Chicago to the West Coast to adequately serve all of the on-route communities is laughable; especially thinking that Spokane is well-served by a train at 1:00 AM; or Salt Lake City eastbound at 3:30 AM/westbound at 11:30 PM. But, that is what Amtrak is doing - forcing its passengers to submit to Amtrak's schedule, not the other way around.

If we were to ditch the "PSR Model of Passenger Railroading", Amtrak would be doing extensive market research to understand where its customers are, where they are going, and how Amtrak can best suit their needs. And Amtrak would look very, very different than it does today, at least outside of California (where operations are managed by local Joint Powers Boards and not Amtrak) and the NEC. Or, a lot less like Union Pacific/CSX/Canadian National/Canadian Pacific, and a lot more like Genesee & Wyoming and its 122 independent, autonomously operated and marketed railroads, each with local salespeople and management that make the decisions.