Silver "Express" or Silver "Limited" Service

The discussion in the Auto Train and Floridian topics made me think. If DC (Lorton) to FL is so popular that the AT is profitable (is that established)? what would a "Silver Express" look like passenger-wise? Or a "Silver Limited"?

The Silver Meteor (97/98) currently departs DC at 1959 (7:59pm for you non-railroaders and civilians). it arrives at 1859 in Miami the next day. That's 23 hours, of which 9+ are in Florida (JAX: 0949). Florida has lots of stops...

If Amtrak limited the stops especially in FL, where I would do Jax, Orlando, West Palm, and Fort Lauderdale. Eliminated some of the "northern" stops and limit it to Fayetteville, Charleston, Savannah) you'd probably have a good time savings. This might attract those non-car riders looking for a fast(er) ride.

Thoughts? Just playing "Devil's Advocate" here...

The Florida Special was timed NY-MIA via ACL and FEC in 24hours flat. Consists could be twenty cars - Pullman and Diners only once upon a time;

Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 10, 2006 3:30 pm OK let's go back to the Holiday season of 44 years ago. We are standing on the platform at "Old Penn" to observe the arrival of what follows:

Florida Special NB 12/31/62

GG1 4915
FEC Dorm St Johnsbury
ACL Coach 209
Diner Fitzgerald
Coach 217
226
Diner Winter Haven
7BR 2DR Blue Bird
Humming Bird
4-4-2 Savannah River
RF&P 10-6 Hanover County
ACL Diner Newark
10-6 Osceola County
FEC 6BR-Lng Oleander
ACL 4-4-2 Manatee River
10-6 Polk County

I would cut it down even further, TBH: NYC-PHL-BAL-WAS-RVR-(RGI-CLB or FAY-CHS)-SAV-JAX-ORL-TPA (optional)-WPB-FTL-MIA. Hit one city per state (avoiding New Jersey, of course), and limited-stop Florida.

Why does it have to skip Jersey? I'd like to see where the majority of NYC-area passengers are really from. It's not a twenty block radius of NYP, and it's likely a big chunk of suburbanites. Does that mean Connecticut, Jersey, Long Island, Hudson valley...? That should determine the stops.

Here's the ridership statistics from 2022 as published by
https://narprail.org/resources/ridershi ... hip%20data

Silver Star data (2022):
Coach/ Sleeper/ Total
Passengers 376,431/ 58,297/ 434,728
Average trip 455 miles/ 848 miles/ 508 miles
Average fare $ 77.00/ $368.00/ $116.00
Avg yld per mi 16.8/ 43.4/ 22.8
0- 99 mi 9.3%
100- 199 mi 15.3%
200- 299 mi 24.3%
300- 399 mi 8.3%
400- 499 mi 6.0%
500- 599 mi 4.9%
600- 699 mi 5.3%
700- 799 mi 3.4%
800- 899 mi 2.3%
900- 999 mi 5.1%
1000+ mi 15.8%

Silver Meteor data (2022)
Coach/ Sleeper/ Total
Passengers 67,159/ 12,015/ 79,174
Average trip 471 miles/ 846 miles/ 528 miles
Average fare $ 86.00/ $406.00/ $134.00
Avg yld per mi 18.2/ 48.0/ 25.4
0- 99 mi 5.8%
100- 199 mi 14.7%
200- 299 mi 23.4%
300- 399 mi 7.4%
400- 499 mi 6.4%
500- 599 mi 5.9%
600- 699 mi 5.0%
700- 799 mi 5.2%
800- 899 mi 3.7%
900- 999 mi 4.7%
1000+ mi 17.8%

Believe it or not, around 45% of all the passengers on these two trains ride less than 300 miles on it. Of the remaining 55% of the passengers who ride longer around 33% ride longer than 1000 miles, or 18% of the total ride longer than 1000 miles.
Removing a few stations to make a semi-express train is not going to attract that many more passengers. In fact, it might lose more passengers than it gains. What makes the Auto Train attractive is not its non-stop service, but the ability to pack a ton of bags in your car and bring your car with you. Perfect for snowbirds and those with prolong vacations in Florida or in the Northeast.

>If DC (Lorton) to FL is so popular that the AT is profitable

I don't think that's quite right. AT is profitable because Amtrak is able to charge a premium for carrying cars.

Tadman wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:53 pm Why does it have to skip Jersey? I'd like to see where the majority of NYC-area passengers are really from. It's not a twenty block radius of NYP, and it's likely a big chunk of suburbanites. Does that mean Connecticut, Jersey, Long Island, Hudson valley...? That should determine the stops.

New Jersey can go to NYP or PHL by NJ Transit and SEPTA. The biggest city in that state is basically next door to NYC, and if you're around Atlantic City, you're taking a train to the train no matter what.

Granted, I would love to see that study of where NYC-area passengers originate from and board the Silver services. But that's something for a future time.

STrRedWolf wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 7:23 pm Granted, I would love to see that study of where NYC-area passengers originate from and board the Silver services. But that's something for a future time.

I suspect if you started long distance services from Hoboken and added a parking structure, they'd do just as well as they do from Penn/Grand Central.

I have no idea if the terminal could support it, but the last mile effort to get to Hoboken can't be that much more challenging from most directions than it is to get downtown. It would certainly be far cheaper to expand Hoboken than it would be to expand anything in Manhattan.

eolesen wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 10:30 pm I suspect if you started long distance services from Hoboken and added a parking structure, they'd do just as well as they do from Penn/Grand Central.

I have no idea if the terminal could support it, but the last mile effort to get to Hoboken can't be that much more challenging from most directions than it is to get downtown. It would certainly be far cheaper to expand Hoboken than it would be to expand anything in Manhattan.

As is, the terminal can't support it and it is terminally busy with NJ Transit traffic going onto ferries and PATH.

To expand the station, you need to make more land by filling in the bay. I took a look through Google Maps Sat View and there is no room except the bay, which will make it prohibitively expensive... to the tune that it's cheaper to expand in Manhattan than build up Hoboken. Not only that, you have to service the equipment... which means building facilities to do that while they already exist in NYC (Sunnyside).

You can try Secaucus, though!

Tadman wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:53 pm Why does it have to skip Jersey? I'd like to see where the majority of NYC-area passengers are really from. It's not a twenty block radius of NYP, and it's likely a big chunk of suburbanites. Does that mean Connecticut, Jersey, Long Island, Hudson valley...? That should determine the stops.

I omitted NYC, NJ, et al because I was thinking a non-NEC train with its inherent stops. For instance, if I'm thinking of a second daylight Crescent, I'd start that in DC, too. Now, if you would limit the stops on the NEC (Newark, Philly and Baltimore only?) and prohibit bookings from there to DC, that would work. You wouldn't have to worry about people getting around the limitation by booking Arlington because you're not stopping there; I'd probably make Richmond the first stop south of DC.

STrRedWolf wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 6:35 am To expand the station, you need to make more land by filling in the bay. I took a look through Google Maps Sat View and there is no room except the bay, which will make it prohibitively expensive... to the tune that it's cheaper to expand in Manhattan than build up Hoboken. Not only that, you have to service the equipment... which means building facilities to do that while they already exist in NYC (Sunnyside).

Nah... no need to fill in the bay. Buy up properties to the north or south of the station or take them via eminent domain.

But yes, Secaucus or within the Meadowlands could work, too.

If an airport can be 5-20 miles away from a city center, so can a rail terminal.

eolesen wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 10:19 am

STrRedWolf wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 6:35 am To expand the station, you need to make more land by filling in the bay. I took a look through Google Maps Sat View and there is no room except the bay, which will make it prohibitively expensive... to the tune that it's cheaper to expand in Manhattan than build up Hoboken. Not only that, you have to service the equipment... which means building facilities to do that while they already exist in NYC (Sunnyside).

Nah... no need to fill in the bay. Buy up properties to the north or south of the station or take them via eminent domain.

But yes, Secaucus or within the Meadowlands could work, too.

If an airport can be 5-20 miles away from a city center, so can a rail terminal.

South of the station is bay, so it would need to be filled in. North of the station is high rise apartments (and probably not invaluable properties at that), so displace 100s of families (if not more) and discover it was probably less expensive to tunnel under NYP and then realize that since Hoboken is at least two modal changes from Long Island, serving NYP probably is better business anyway.

If you really think a retaining wall and doing infill on the bay are more expensive than tunneling under Manhattan, you're insane. I'm sure there will be plenty of talings available from the bores on the new Gateway tunnels that could be obtained relatively free.

Another option would be to double-deck Hoboken terminal. Again, far cheaper to build things in daylight than it is underground.

Being two modes away from Long Island assumes that most of your customers are coming from Long Island on the train. I suspect that more come from the other 200+ degrees of catchment area in NJ, CT, and the Hudson Valley, and being able to drive to Hoboken or Secaucus with parking would probably serve a majority of the customer base taking the train to Florida today.

Jeff Smith wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:01 am I omitted NYC, NJ, et al because I was thinking a non-NEC train with its inherent stops. For instance, if I'm thinking of a second daylight Crescent, I'd start that in DC, too. Now, if you would limit the stops on the NEC (Newark, Philly and Baltimore only?) and prohibit bookings from there to DC, that would work. You wouldn't have to worry about people getting around the limitation by booking Arlington because you're not stopping there; I'd probably make Richmond the first stop south of DC.

I can definitely see starting in DC (or Baltimore, if the rebuild works out nicely up there). You're following the same trope that I'm doing...

STrRedWolf wrote:I would cut it down even further, TBH: NYC-PHL-BAL-WAS-RVR-(RGI-CLB or FAY-CHS)-SAV-JAX-ORL-TPA (optional)-WPB-FTL-MIA. Hit one city per state (avoiding New Jersey, of course), and limited-stop Florida.

Yep, "hubbing" at DC would make more sense given the facility and tunnel capacity issues. The almost-hourly frequency across the day on the NEC makes it a perfect opportunity more so than trying to build connections across Chicago with the regional corridors.