Return of Daily LD Service

dgvrengineer wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 7:58 pm I think CSX limits Auto Train to a max of 50 cars, unless that has been renegotiated. I don't see where extra HEP would matter as they have maxed out 50 before Covid with the current locomotives.

This was something Amtrak has mentioned in their five year plan regarding the ALC-42s that the increased HEP could potentially allow for Amtrak to run a longer consist with more Superliner cars on the train. Presumably though if they decided to increase the train length beyond 50 total cars once they equip AT with new power they'd have to negotiate with CSX to allow more cars as you've suggested.

Mr. West Point, you've dropped enough "clues" around here to give me a pretty good idea as to your profession. How about just "coming out"?

But, while I could have sensed such was the case, I've now learned through you that airlines can "force assign" Flight Crews (Officers, and presumably Attendants), but if there are simply "no bodies" to be had, well what else than a "big CX"?

To end back on the rails, though, it seems like Amtrak will avoid frequency reductions - at least this time around. Even if I haven't known the Greek alphabet since the days of "PLEDGE; Recite", there are plenty of letters left for additional variants.

lordsigma12345 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:53 am

dgvrengineer wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 7:58 pm I think CSX limits Auto Train to a max of 50 cars, unless that has been renegotiated. I don't see where extra HEP would matter as they have maxed out 50 before Covid with the current locomotives.

This was something Amtrak has mentioned in their five year plan regarding the ALC-42s that the increased HEP could potentially allow for Amtrak to run a longer consist with more Superliner cars on the train. Presumably though if they decided to increase the train length beyond 50 total cars once they equip AT with new power they'd have to negotiate with CSX to allow more cars as you've suggested.

CSX has it at 50 and Ive forgotten why? It once was a possible test question, but that was long ago. I also have forgotten what the max amount of cars a P42 can supply HEP too due to voltage drop and such. Learned that in Choo Choo U but that goes even further back into the things that won't get you taken out of service file. Even if there are multiple engines in the consist only one is supplying HEP the other are there for tractive effort

Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 8:55 am Even if I haven't known the Greek alphabet since the days of "PLEDGE; Recite", there are plenty of letters left for additional variants.

Just make sure you skip any additional Greek letters that are similar in name to any Chinese leaders. Main thing would be if the Supremes allow Joe's vaccine mandate to go ahead then we may be back in the same position talking about potential reductions.

Mr. Norman. Knew a person who was at bottom of having a bid trip that was forced assigned that he had a nice paid vacation from the 11th to end of month. On that airline and some others force assignment means you get paid for a missed trip.

"Grand Slam" today.

Normal consists; Xmas surge; hello!!!

#6(22) 120ML, others "more or less" OT.

Cant add cars you dont have. Stuff was run hard and put away wet when they pulled back service last winter. Cars are slowly returning to service. Also heard through the grapevine they are perfectly happy running what they have currently at the prices they are getting. Myself currently back on a road job with the LSL seven to eight cars every trip into Penn and its always busy.

Railjunkie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 24, 2021 11:02 pm Also heard through the grapevine they are perfectly happy running what they have currently at the prices they are getting.

Makes a lot of sense, Mr. Junkie.

Why offer additional supply that with the existing demand pricing structure, the "yield" per seat/room will simply diminish?

Why spend a "lotta loot" keeping cars "in date" (understand a full COTS costs about $100K to do) when having them available will lessen the "yield" - and burn up more gas to haul 'em around?

Those who consider Amtrak as some kind of "Social Service" will hold that philosophy to be some kind of "criminal". Those who hold Amtrak is to be run as a for-profit business - even if that goal is unattainable - will say "go for it".

On at least the Auto Train the emphasis now is on selling “private rooms” and maximizing revenue as opposed to maximizing ridership. Expect to continue to see less coaches and more sleepers on that train. I’d suspect a similar strategy on a smaller scale on other LDs - trying to maximize revenue on the available room inventory as opposed to ferrying maximum passengers. Notice on how some of the trains there’s a similar number of sleeping cars to pre pandemic but less coaches. The reality is coach LD fares are heavily subsidized and they probably feel they can only affordably carry so many heavily subsidized passengers on long haul routes. With market based revenue management they will try to recover some revenue from the private rooms to try to cover as much cost as possible. I suspect over the next couple years consists stay roughly the same while they overhaul more equipment. And it sounds like a big priority on the Superliner overhaul side is getting transition sleepers out of mothballs.

With such an emphasis on private rooms nowadays, do you think we'll see a return of the "all pullman", or all Sleeper LD train? (With a Cafe or Diner car of course. And hopefully for reasonable prices.)

Well Mr. Pennsy, if you were to see twenty S Coaches yanked off the Bad Order (expired IDT) line, and the conversion to 325XX 10BR (Auto Train "-- Beach) Sleepers so as to add a line to #3, #5, #7, then I'd say "you're on to something".

What we don't know (and won't) is if Sleepers, so long as they can command $1500 for an AT journey, or $2K for a CHI-LAX, represent profitability. They would need be more so than the "cookie jar" (a term I often used with my clients) as recovery of the (I'm guessing) $1.5M per car spent for the conversion need be considered.

On the point of Bedrooms, I long thought that the V-II's configuration should have been 8BR, 4RM. Note absence of an "H" room. Only one per train is needed, so I guess such a V-II could not be the only Sleeper.

Here is a TRAINS Newswire article suggesting just what has been speculated here. Amtrak is deliberately holding down supply, i.e. Coach seats, to induce higher fares from those who are left to ride.

Fair Use:

A Trains survey counted 66 cars “missing” from Superliner-equipped trains, excluding Auto Train, compared to pre-pandemic consists [see “Coming back — Amtrak’s steps (and missteps) to recover from pandemic,” November 2021 Trains].

With sufficient capacity, lower prices can attract more revenue where travel demand is elastic. At a Nov. 9 hearing, company President Stephen Gardner told Congress that during 2021, Amtrak attracted 500,000 riders who had never ridden one of its trains before. In the Northeast Corridor, there were enough departures and space on trains to lure new clientele with lower fares. This was not possible on long-distance trains with two coaches and one sleeping car; unless cars are added, keeping prices high for limited inventory is a prudent decision.[/quote}

eolesen wrote: ↑Sat Dec 25, 2021 8:08 pm Without coaches how can anyone really argue that LD trains are critical transportation to rural communities?....

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That’s why they can’t and won’t go totally coach less. Rural travel is the often cited reason federal subsidies are received - but the biggest contributor to revenue is won’t flyers or rather not flyers who take the train and on some western routes - the additional group of people looking for a train travel experience or looking to experience the route’s scenery. The experience group is most important and present on the double over night LD trains and Coast Starlight - hence why they brought back full service dining on those. On those particular routes the absence of the dining service decreased CSI scores enough during the pandemic period to indicate this amenity is important on those trains to maintaining a stable CSI and hence revenue. On the other hand in the East flexible dining did not have as much of an impact on the CSI - the ticked off rail fans were being replaced by other riders. Hence the smaller tweaks to flexible dining - trying to squeeze out a couple more CSI points without dramatically increasing costs. It’s all about data and numbers. Optimizing available seat miles to what the demand is to provide the best revenue/cost balance and minimize that operating loss and maintain a stable CSI.

Expect consists to be at the optimal revenue level especially sleepers - IE the amount of cars where they will consistently sell out and pull in the high level fares. They are only going to add an extra car, coach or sleeper, if they know for certain there’s enough demand to get it to sell out otherwise as Mr. Norman pointed out you’re getting less per unit while adding to costs. Cars will be added only if adding it improves that operating deficit number.