Introduction
As the economy of the State of Maine continues to develop in the 21st century, emerging development patterns are appearing which point towards a return in some ways to previous patterns of development from the 19th century that were largely left behind in the 20th century. One of the broadest trends responsible for this is the de-industrialization of Maine. De-industrialization in Maine is due in large part to competition from foreign trade originating in countries with stable governments and extremely low costs for production, namely China, but also places such as Bangladesh and Vietnam. Although one can be certain that Maine is not returning to being a largely agrarian society, other trends seem to indicate that tourism and aqua/agriculture are re-emerging to play an increasingly important part in Maine's economy.
Case-Study, Winthrop, ME
Winthrop, ME represents an interesting case study in observing these general trends. Winthrop's industrial development peaked sometime shortly after WWII when it was home to at least three or four major industrial enterprises and dozens of smaller businesses that either supported or directly participated in production processes. Winthrop's central business district located between Maranacook and Annabessacook Lake was centered around the former Carlton Woolen Mill, now the Winthrop Commerce Center. Prior to this, in the late 19th century Winthrop, ME, was known as the "Apple Valley" with extensive canning operations of Greening apples that were shipped out and sent to markets on the East Coast and nationally. Additionally, Winthrop also developed a very strong tourist based economy with a number of famous resorts catering to the rusticators including Tallwood Resort, the Martha Washington Inn, the Belvedere Inn, the Elmwood Hotel and the Marancook Hotel.
As the mid-century production peak passed, over the course of the next 40 years, major industry in the area slowly shutdown or relocated leaving some remnant industrial enterprise but in general the industrial-centered economy model in Winthrop was gone, perhaps forever. Given the perspective that comes with watching the 20th century slip further into the rearview the heavily industrialized economic model in Winthrop appears more and more to have been a historical anomaly resulting from exceptional global under-development and unusual geo-political circumstances which made the United States one of the few reliably safe places in which to engage in private enterprise. Winthrop, like many other small American towns benefited deeply from the economic largess often generated by intense industrial activity.
Almost by default the local economy appears to be returning to previous patterns of development which have not been predominant since at least the early 20th century. The two patterns in particular that appear to be making a strong return are centered around tourism and agriculture. These two general trends rest upon an underlying foundation of a strong modern service based economy with a concentration in public administration (State of Maine and local government), healthcare services (Maine General Medical Center satellites) and transportation (Progressive Distributors Inc./Hannaford). These three primary jobs creators then support the broader local economy of small businesses including service providers, and entrepreneurs. Additionally there is also a small, but significant, light industry component (Alternative Manufacturing Inc./AMI) to the local economy.
These two trends (reemergence of agriculture and tourism) seem to be largely supported and driven in part by the renewed availability of a broad labor pool which was previously occupied in high paying industrial occupations, some of which had especially attractive wages and benefits resulting from collective bargaining gains enabled by the Wagner Act of 1935. The wide availability of union wages for industrial work had one very important implication in the 20th century which may have helped diminish the role of agriculture and tourism. High school graduates were afforded opportunities for nearly endless employment with high wages and exceptional benefits including retirement, making the less secure and somewhat seasonal agriculture and tourist economies extremely unattractive to all but the nearly unemployable or in some cases, those with family members or some other close connection to tourism and agriculture.
Rail Transportation & Post-Industrial Trends
In the 19th century rail transportation, both freight and passenger played an extremely important and prominent role in supporting the development and prosperity of the agricultural and tourist economy. Winthrop, ME was no exception to this rule. The Freight Office of the Maine Central Railroad in downtown Winthrop handled countless loads of freight outbound to the nation for decades. Likewise the passenger station (and several flag stops at local resorts) was a well traveled gateway to the area, and is still remembered for its role as a major transit point for young boys and girls attending one of the many youth summer camps in the area.
Unlike the 19th century, locally based rail freight & passenger operations are no longer economical even in moderate volumes. The national interstate highway system and the federal and state highway networks have largely replaced these functions in both the freight and passenger modes. Railroad economies of scale mean that profits are only available to lines operating large long-distance line haul trains or in rare cases local operations for major rail intensive industries, such as the remaining paper mills in Maine. Thus, it would appear that the role of the railroad, in places like Winthrop, which are not major transportation hubs, would be minimal at best and limited to the daily transit of trains operating to and fro between major hubs in Ayer, MA, Portland, ME, and to a lesser extent Waterville, ME or even Lewiston/Danville Junction, ME.
Most analyses of continued growth in local agriculture and tourism would seem to point towards moderate increases in vehicular traffic with seasonal spikes centered on the summer and certain major holiday weekends. In short even with post-industrial reversion to certain aspects of the 19th century economy Winthrop does not appear poised to become a participant in any way shape or form in originating rail freight of passenger traffic ever again. This analysis rests on certain assumptions. First, that the cost of over the road transportation will continue to maintain its relative advantages over rail across short distances. Second, that any changes or innovations to agriculture in the local area will not be of such a nature that they would develop bulk demand for farming materials or bulk supply of agricultural products. Third, that visitors and tourists to the State of Maine will continue to rely on air-car transport to arrive at their final destinations. Fourth (as a near corollary to the first assumption), that passenger rail, in either short distance commuter, long/medium distance intercity or excursion format will remain largely unviable in all areas of Maine outside of the Boston - Portland - Brunswick corridor.
With one important exception at least three of the four assumptions seem largely reasonable and likely to hold. The second assumption, that there will be no innovation nor sufficient growth in the agricultural sector significant enough to demand local rail service seems both statist and a major underestimation of the potential developments in local agriculture or agriculture related industry. One of these potential developments, in Winthrop specifically, would be the creation of a local brewery that in time would grow to sufficient size to create demand for brewing supplies in quantities efficient to railroad economies of scale. It would seem at least possible that eventual production might also be shipped by rail as well but by that point such an operation might no longer be accurately described as "local".
Conclusion
On a very small scale Winthrop's potential for new demand for rail traffic while very limited represents similar opportunities throughout Maine that appear likely to emerge over the course of the next 50 years. At least in part due to high prices for agricultural commodities locally based agriculture can be expected to continue to gain strength in Maine. This in combination with continued growth in forest products traffic means that under certain conditions it may in fact be possible to see a climb in originating freight traffic throughout rail lines in Maine for decades to come with additional small gains in demand for bulk carloads. While this scenario by no means represents any kind of a "boom" in freight rail traffic it does in some small way represent a return to locally oriented freight rail service that was once predominant in the 19th century. Certainly "less than car load" traffic is never expected to return however it does seem possible that there will be an increase of operating sidings here and there producing or demanding rail freight shipments. That in of itself is not by any means a natural outcome for the current state of affairs dictated by the "conventional wisdom".
In the rail passenger domain there is at least the possibility of new services but as mentioned current assumptions regarding viability, even for publicly funded services seem to exclude any new developments likely for quite some time to come.
Discussion
The topic asks whether the end of industry centered economies mean that many towns formerly strongly associated with tourism and agriculture in the 19th century are returning to those economies. Other towns, such as North Conway, NH or Bar Habor, ME developed these patterns over the last 100 years and stayed with them. Winthrop, and others appear to be in the process of returning to them after a century hiatus as industrial centers.
I am very interested in any further discussion on this topic of "past is prologue" and whether or not others see the same general direction taking shape. Namely, that the end of the industrial-centric 20th century economy in Maine (and perhaps Northern New England as a whole) is leading to the return of regionally predominant economic development patterns last seen in the 19th century.
[EDIT: clarity]
As the economy of the State of Maine continues to develop in the 21st century, emerging development patterns are appearing which point towards a return in some ways to previous patterns of development from the 19th century that were largely left behind in the 20th century. One of the broadest trends responsible for this is the de-industrialization of Maine. De-industrialization in Maine is due in large part to competition from foreign trade originating in countries with stable governments and extremely low costs for production, namely China, but also places such as Bangladesh and Vietnam. Although one can be certain that Maine is not returning to being a largely agrarian society, other trends seem to indicate that tourism and aqua/agriculture are re-emerging to play an increasingly important part in Maine's economy.
Case-Study, Winthrop, ME
Winthrop, ME represents an interesting case study in observing these general trends. Winthrop's industrial development peaked sometime shortly after WWII when it was home to at least three or four major industrial enterprises and dozens of smaller businesses that either supported or directly participated in production processes. Winthrop's central business district located between Maranacook and Annabessacook Lake was centered around the former Carlton Woolen Mill, now the Winthrop Commerce Center. Prior to this, in the late 19th century Winthrop, ME, was known as the "Apple Valley" with extensive canning operations of Greening apples that were shipped out and sent to markets on the East Coast and nationally. Additionally, Winthrop also developed a very strong tourist based economy with a number of famous resorts catering to the rusticators including Tallwood Resort, the Martha Washington Inn, the Belvedere Inn, the Elmwood Hotel and the Marancook Hotel.
As the mid-century production peak passed, over the course of the next 40 years, major industry in the area slowly shutdown or relocated leaving some remnant industrial enterprise but in general the industrial-centered economy model in Winthrop was gone, perhaps forever. Given the perspective that comes with watching the 20th century slip further into the rearview the heavily industrialized economic model in Winthrop appears more and more to have been a historical anomaly resulting from exceptional global under-development and unusual geo-political circumstances which made the United States one of the few reliably safe places in which to engage in private enterprise. Winthrop, like many other small American towns benefited deeply from the economic largess often generated by intense industrial activity.
Almost by default the local economy appears to be returning to previous patterns of development which have not been predominant since at least the early 20th century. The two patterns in particular that appear to be making a strong return are centered around tourism and agriculture. These two general trends rest upon an underlying foundation of a strong modern service based economy with a concentration in public administration (State of Maine and local government), healthcare services (Maine General Medical Center satellites) and transportation (Progressive Distributors Inc./Hannaford). These three primary jobs creators then support the broader local economy of small businesses including service providers, and entrepreneurs. Additionally there is also a small, but significant, light industry component (Alternative Manufacturing Inc./AMI) to the local economy.
These two trends (reemergence of agriculture and tourism) seem to be largely supported and driven in part by the renewed availability of a broad labor pool which was previously occupied in high paying industrial occupations, some of which had especially attractive wages and benefits resulting from collective bargaining gains enabled by the Wagner Act of 1935. The wide availability of union wages for industrial work had one very important implication in the 20th century which may have helped diminish the role of agriculture and tourism. High school graduates were afforded opportunities for nearly endless employment with high wages and exceptional benefits including retirement, making the less secure and somewhat seasonal agriculture and tourist economies extremely unattractive to all but the nearly unemployable or in some cases, those with family members or some other close connection to tourism and agriculture.
Rail Transportation & Post-Industrial Trends
In the 19th century rail transportation, both freight and passenger played an extremely important and prominent role in supporting the development and prosperity of the agricultural and tourist economy. Winthrop, ME was no exception to this rule. The Freight Office of the Maine Central Railroad in downtown Winthrop handled countless loads of freight outbound to the nation for decades. Likewise the passenger station (and several flag stops at local resorts) was a well traveled gateway to the area, and is still remembered for its role as a major transit point for young boys and girls attending one of the many youth summer camps in the area.
Unlike the 19th century, locally based rail freight & passenger operations are no longer economical even in moderate volumes. The national interstate highway system and the federal and state highway networks have largely replaced these functions in both the freight and passenger modes. Railroad economies of scale mean that profits are only available to lines operating large long-distance line haul trains or in rare cases local operations for major rail intensive industries, such as the remaining paper mills in Maine. Thus, it would appear that the role of the railroad, in places like Winthrop, which are not major transportation hubs, would be minimal at best and limited to the daily transit of trains operating to and fro between major hubs in Ayer, MA, Portland, ME, and to a lesser extent Waterville, ME or even Lewiston/Danville Junction, ME.
Most analyses of continued growth in local agriculture and tourism would seem to point towards moderate increases in vehicular traffic with seasonal spikes centered on the summer and certain major holiday weekends. In short even with post-industrial reversion to certain aspects of the 19th century economy Winthrop does not appear poised to become a participant in any way shape or form in originating rail freight of passenger traffic ever again. This analysis rests on certain assumptions. First, that the cost of over the road transportation will continue to maintain its relative advantages over rail across short distances. Second, that any changes or innovations to agriculture in the local area will not be of such a nature that they would develop bulk demand for farming materials or bulk supply of agricultural products. Third, that visitors and tourists to the State of Maine will continue to rely on air-car transport to arrive at their final destinations. Fourth (as a near corollary to the first assumption), that passenger rail, in either short distance commuter, long/medium distance intercity or excursion format will remain largely unviable in all areas of Maine outside of the Boston - Portland - Brunswick corridor.
With one important exception at least three of the four assumptions seem largely reasonable and likely to hold. The second assumption, that there will be no innovation nor sufficient growth in the agricultural sector significant enough to demand local rail service seems both statist and a major underestimation of the potential developments in local agriculture or agriculture related industry. One of these potential developments, in Winthrop specifically, would be the creation of a local brewery that in time would grow to sufficient size to create demand for brewing supplies in quantities efficient to railroad economies of scale. It would seem at least possible that eventual production might also be shipped by rail as well but by that point such an operation might no longer be accurately described as "local".
Conclusion
On a very small scale Winthrop's potential for new demand for rail traffic while very limited represents similar opportunities throughout Maine that appear likely to emerge over the course of the next 50 years. At least in part due to high prices for agricultural commodities locally based agriculture can be expected to continue to gain strength in Maine. This in combination with continued growth in forest products traffic means that under certain conditions it may in fact be possible to see a climb in originating freight traffic throughout rail lines in Maine for decades to come with additional small gains in demand for bulk carloads. While this scenario by no means represents any kind of a "boom" in freight rail traffic it does in some small way represent a return to locally oriented freight rail service that was once predominant in the 19th century. Certainly "less than car load" traffic is never expected to return however it does seem possible that there will be an increase of operating sidings here and there producing or demanding rail freight shipments. That in of itself is not by any means a natural outcome for the current state of affairs dictated by the "conventional wisdom".
In the rail passenger domain there is at least the possibility of new services but as mentioned current assumptions regarding viability, even for publicly funded services seem to exclude any new developments likely for quite some time to come.
Discussion
The topic asks whether the end of industry centered economies mean that many towns formerly strongly associated with tourism and agriculture in the 19th century are returning to those economies. Other towns, such as North Conway, NH or Bar Habor, ME developed these patterns over the last 100 years and stayed with them. Winthrop, and others appear to be in the process of returning to them after a century hiatus as industrial centers.
I am very interested in any further discussion on this topic of "past is prologue" and whether or not others see the same general direction taking shape. Namely, that the end of the industrial-centric 20th century economy in Maine (and perhaps Northern New England as a whole) is leading to the return of regionally predominant economic development patterns last seen in the 19th century.
[EDIT: clarity]
gokeefe
