Rail & Post-Indus. Economy in Maine. Return to 19th Cen.?

I would think part of the benefit there would be assisting with break in period. Regardless without some really creative railroading this is a tough sell.

TomNelligan wrote:For what it's worth, new city transit buses are always delivered from the builder to their destination on their own wheels.

Ditto for school buses. Often there are actually two sets of trips involved: from the builder to the regional dealer/distributor, and from the dealer/distributor to the customer.

To give a local example: Blue Bird Corporation drives its new school and transit buses from Fort Valley, Georgia, to O'Connor Blue Bird in Portland, Maine. O'Connor does the final prep work (installation of aftermarket accessories, that sort of thing) and then drives the buses to their final destination. In many cases this might be as far away as Massachusetts, Rhode Island, or Connecticut, since O'Connor's territory covers almost all of New England.

The same scenario happens with Thomas Built Buses: they're driven from the plant in High Point, North Carolina, to W.C. Cressey & Son in Kennebunk, Maine. Cressey does their thing and then delivers them to the customer, who could be as far away as northern Vermont.

It does seem awfully inefficient, but as Mr. Nelligan points out, we can assume that they've looked at this from every angle and found there's no better way to do it.

TomNelligan wrote:For what it's worth, new city transit buses are always delivered from the builder to their destination on their own wheels. Yes, it does take a bunch of drivers making multiple trips, but that's how the industry does it so there is reason to believe that self-propelled delivery has been established as the most economical or at least the most practical method. I would assume that the same factors would apply to buses headed to way-northern Maine for rebuilding.

Caveat, of course, that the buses in question are road-worthy prior to rebuilding.

Wow! A brutally frank, come-to-Jesus letter to the citizens of Millinocket (and, by inference, to the many other struggling Maine towns) written by the firm that offered the town help in finding a new direction:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BwX4t- ... ref=inline" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Their many references to reinvented communities relied (too?) heavily on tourism; perhaps that is the town's one great hope outside of forestry-related manufacturing/processing.

A powerful, thoughtful document that will surely spark debate - and hopefully action - in Northern New England's Paper Belt.

Cowford wrote:A powerful, thoughtful document that will surely spark debate - and hopefully action - in Northern New England's Paper Belt.

I've been following this story. I agree on all accounts. Hopefully this makes people realize that "it's now or never" and that this time "things really do have to change".

Wait to see what happens with the East Millinocket mill. If that gets dismantled as well then the final pillar of the pulp and paper lobby in that area will fall and the prospects for a new national park (or, in my eyes a national forest) will grow exponentially.

More than impressive if you ask me.

"Insert New England old mill town name here" too.

At least Millinocket has the natural resources and beauty of the region. Most places don't...

There is the poster that states "Denial Is Not a River in Egypt," but denial is in the water and air and psyche of too many dying mill communities. If Massachusetts mill communities -- even those that have tried to repurpose themselves -- serve as examples, it will take a generation of dead mills and declining populations before concerted recognition and effort get serious. Some Massachusetts communities -- Pittsfield, North Adams, Fitchburg, Lowell, and to lesser extents, Lawrence and Haverhill -- have begun their transitions, but others -- Woronoco and those not next to significant amounts of population -- still lag.
It won't be fun.

What has happened in Millinocket has happened in dozens of northern New England towns. The "come-to-Jesus letter", as you aptly put it, should be read by the selectpersons and other town leaders in all of them. I'm a lifelong New Englander, and have lived in small towns almost all my 63 years. I wouldn't want to live in any other region of the country. That said, however, I have no illusions: many such towns can be very provincial, and there is, among them, a pronounced "We've-always-taken-care-of-ourselves-and-we-don't-want-any-outside-interference" attitude. As a result, the potential for outside investors to come in and help turn things around is seen as meddlesome. As a further result, nothing happens --- and these towns, together with the regions that are composed of them, are slowly, sadly dying.

Ever been to Helen, Georgia? I have. Look it up. It's a remarkable story of a declining town that was revivified by outside investment, and today is a major tourist draw in the north Georgia hills. The creation of a faux Bavarian village might not work in Maine, but there is a definite need to think outside the box. Not only do I not see that happening; it's been apparent to me, over nearly forty years, that there are many people who don't want it to happen.

Who'll be the last one to turn out the lights?

trainsinmaine wrote:Who'll be the last one to turn out the lights?

I think this question gets to the crux of the problem as no other.

There is a generational transition underway up here. As many have noted Maine is the oldest state in the entire country. This also means that we will be among the very first to exit the population imbalance. Speaking in population terms the state that you see today is going to see a dramatic shift over the next 5 to 10 years. This will have many second and third order effects but among them will be an earlier and I think more robust willingness to look at the "bigger solutions" (as proposed in the letter) sooner than we might expect.

The absolute rock of resistance to these changes is contained in the cohorts of elders living in the state right now. They are concerned about trying to scrape by on fixed incomes and see the only possible outcome of new investment as higher taxes. They feel very strongly that what they have right now is manageable and that the "unknown" has a great potential to bring ruin to their plans for survival into old age.

The current policies of the administration just recently re-elected are going to challenge on deep and fundamental levels some of this support for inaction. Increases in property taxes will force many long time residents from their homes and others will simply try to "make do" with less. Given that the electorate has already supported the most conservative solution possible I think the pump is primed for a swing in the other direction.

In our present situation up here that is going to mean an outcome that likely leads to major infrastructure investments and a paradigmatic economic shift for some places, such as Millinocket.

The economic future of inland Maine (and the Calais area) is such a multifaceted problem that it boggles the mind. I could spend many paragraphs offering observations on the subject. One single sentence from the czb letter to Millinocket sums it up succinctly: "The world has left Millinocket behind . . .".

Precisely --- and there's no looking back. This is true for many communities not only in Maine but elsewhere in northern New England and the Maritimes. This, I think, leads to the question, What can we do to openly address this situation and effectively attenuate the outflow of young adults from the region? If we don't do something soon, most of the economy will consist of services to tourists, the poor, and the elderly. Much of it does already.

trainsinmaine wrote:The economic future of inland Maine (and the Calais area) is such a multifaceted problem that it boggles the mind. I could spend many paragraphs offering observations on the subject. One single sentence from the czb letter to Millinocket sums it up succinctly: "The world has left Millinocket behind . . .".

Precisely --- and there's no looking back. This is true for many communities not only in Maine but elsewhere in northern New England and the Maritimes. This, I think, leads to the question, What can we do to openly address this situation and effectively attenuate the outflow of young adults from the region? If we don't do something soon, most of the economy will consist of services to tourists, the poor, and the elderly. Much of it does already.

If the Millinocket we speak of is the "Magic City" built on the fortunes of the Great Northern Paper Company I would certainly be very inclined to agree. On the other hand these small towns have some tremendous advantages which in the 21st century are only going to become more apparent. Plentiful land, reliable electricity, clean air, clean water are among just a few things that will continue to make Maine's small towns some of the most attractive places in New England to raise a family, start a business or relocate a manufacturing facility.

What people easily forget is that although the mills are gone much of the infrastructure that was built to accommodate them remains and is not only maintained but still in current use. How many places in America have a similar availability of electrical power, rail service as well as sewer and water facilities like Millinocket? Not many. In particular there are many places in the West and the South that are so water challenged that any kind of water intensive manufacturing activities are cost prohibitive.

For example, just imagine the ease with which Google could build a data center in Millinocket right now if they wanted to. With the important exception of the necessary fiber optic connections they could probably easily afford to do it tomorrow and due to Maine's cooler climate the cost of operating this data center would probably be substantially lower than it is elsewhere. I'm sure the town would "expedite" (read: approve immediately) the necessary permitting, especially if the data center was sited on the location of the former mill site.

Sure it wouldn't necessarily generate many jobs at all. But the addition to the tax base would be a nice start towards helping the town get itself going again. There are a lot of other places in Maine that could do much the same thing and see similar results.

gokeefe wrote:

trainsinmaine wrote:The economic future of inland Maine (and the Calais area) is such a multifaceted problem that it boggles the mind. I could spend many paragraphs offering observations on the subject. One single sentence from the czb letter to Millinocket sums it up succinctly: "The world has left Millinocket behind . . .".

At least in terms of the high-tech industry, of which I was once part, regional success breeds regional success. Companies establish plants where they know they can draw upon the local talent pool. The local talent moves there or lives there because they will have a choice of employers. The Boston, Research Triangle NC, Dallas, and Silicon Valley areas are examples of this. Recent graduates of nearby colleges have also helped fuel these areas, both as talented employees of existing companies and as renegades from those companies who started their own firms.

The University of Maine at Orono periodically shows up in the news as doing wonderful things. It would be great if UMO could open a branch campus in the Millinocket area and sow the seeds of modern industry in that area. Regrettably, to turn this discussion more toward railroads, I doubt that most modern industries are rail customers unless they are in the mega-agriculture or resource extraction businesses, which seems unlikely.

I'd be happy to hear counter arguments.

-John

On the other hand these small towns have some tremendous advantages which in the 21st century are only going to become more apparent. Plentiful land, reliable electricity, clean air, clean water are among just a few things that will continue to make Maine's small towns some of the most attractive places in New England to raise a family, start a business or relocate a manufacturing facility.

Geez, if that was the case, we wouldn't be having this conversation. About the only inland Maine town that seems to be making some forward progress is Dover-Foxcroft. Perhaps there are others? Maine's mill towns are not unique - when a town or region get too dependent on one company or industry, the fall is that much harder when the jobs disappear. Maine just has it tougher for a variety of reasons. And being ranked 49th in business attractiveness ain't helping.

Cowford wrote:

On the other hand these small towns have some tremendous advantages which in the 21st century are only going to become more apparent. Plentiful land, reliable electricity, clean air, clean water are among just a few things that will continue to make Maine's small towns some of the most attractive places in New England to raise a family, start a business or relocate a manufacturing facility.

Geez, if that was the case, we wouldn't be having this conversation. About the only inland Maine town that seems to be making some forward progress is Dover-Foxcroft. Perhaps there are others? Maine's mill towns are not unique - when a town or region get too dependent on one company or industry, the fall is that much harder when the jobs disappear. Maine just has it tougher for a variety of reasons. And being ranked 49th in business attractiveness ain't helping.

Maine has never been adaptable... when you rely on one business too much to support your municipality, the systemic risk for that town is too much. Yet no one ever seems to question this, it's always been don't rock the boat. The reality is, years ago towns should have been planning for the downfall of the mills and using these revenues to attract new and different types of businesses. And I can't even blame towns, but also the state. The State seems to be inwardly focuses and more reactive then proactive. We either don't see, or even worse, care, about what is happening around us... I haven't even seen a reaction to the announced $205M expansion in Saint John, which will likely kill the 3-port strategy for Maine. But now, you have something really strange going on... consider this fact. Businesses in Eastern and Northern Maine now have better transportation options than those in Central, Western and Southern Maine. Irving's control of the former B&A lines, as well as the blooming port (bulk, container and much more) opens up direct connections for mills like Woodland to Europe on a single carrier. Who would have thought? Yet Mainers think that even integrated economic growth with Canada is evil... although Canada is our largest trading partner.

[/rant]

Cowford wrote:

On the other hand these small towns have some tremendous advantages which in the 21st century are only going to become more apparent. Plentiful land, reliable electricity, clean air, clean water are among just a few things that will continue to make Maine's small towns some of the most attractive places in New England to raise a family, start a business or relocate a manufacturing facility.

Geez, if that was the case, we wouldn't be having this conversation. About the only inland Maine town that seems to be making some forward progress is Dover-Foxcroft. Perhaps there are others? Maine's mill towns are not unique - when a town or region get too dependent on one company or industry, the fall is that much harder when the jobs disappear. Maine just has it tougher for a variety of reasons. And being ranked 49th in business attractiveness ain't helping.

On many levels "I agree". If all of the above really was so valuable then "show me the money". On the other hand the environmental degredation of China combined with the manifest difficulty of opening new manufacturing facilities near urban areas in the United States in my mind makes Maine a nearly ideal location for light manufacturing operations. You could open one textile factory after another up here right now and have little difficulty at all finding people willing to do the work for less than average wages.

Furthermore, you would face none of the uncertainty that you have in the developing world were the electrical supply is unreliable, the water is dirty, the safety codes unenforced, labor laws non-existent and public officials are all profoundly corrupt. Have a problem in one Maine town? Don't worry there are several dozen others more than happy to line up with competent and well-executed permitting and planning processes to expedite the opening of a new business.

That is a classic scenario of opportunity. High natural resources, low urbanization, high human capital, and good transportation. Until recently China really did have all four of these areas covered well. Now they provide decent transportation and in the other three categories they are rapidly losing ground. Its going to take some time for established operations to leave China but I think its going to happen and probably soon at that. I think many manufacturers will be pleasantly surprised at how easy it will be for them to inshore so much of their current product line.