Mr. Matthews wrote:
Policy in the US seems to have assumed that rail would fade away, much as policy in Britain assumed the same in the 1960s. In Britain we are having to restore some lines because of road congestion. The US may have to reverse decades of dismantling routes that should never have been abandoned, and invest in re-doubling and electrification.
That's somewhat of an oversimplification; Total American freight tonnage began to grow steadily after the work-rules reform of the early 1980's, and while bulk commodities like coal and chemicals in large lots are dominant, there has been steady progress elsewhere. The NS freights that passed my place 2006-09 had a growing component pf perishable traffic, but it moved almost exclusively in refrigerated trailers, most of them bearing the logo of freight forwarders (companies which consolidate small shipments into larger ones, cover their expenses and profit on the price differential, and deliver them locally by highway). And as I've previously pointed out, rail carriers have also made a bid to recapure a lot of produce traffic by distributing it from a single cold-storage warehouse utilizing traditional refrigeraor cars for the line haul.
The overwhelmong importance of energy efficiency (as expressed primarily in the focus of ruling grades on long-distance main lines) means that serious service competition is unlikely to develop while a choice between only two carriers remains the rule in most of North America, and and most of the alternatives have been downgraded or abandoned for obvious reasons. Some form of "open access" would have to evolve here, but it's likely to be a while before a reform along the lines of the AT&T breakup, rather than outright nationalization, would allow it to happen. Wariness toward the new Administration's desire to sink its claws into more and more of the American economy continues to grow.
Those of us past the age of 50 can remember a time when every decent-sized community had a number of industrial spurs, usually augmented by a "team" or "public delivery" track; but the high cost of individual pick-up and set-out of cars rendered that operation uneconomical. Most freight today, unless it moves in unit trains, originates and terminates in large-volume terminal facilities near the major cities. Even lumber traffic, once a mainstay of the separable-car technology, moves via center-sill flatcars carring at least twice as much, and is handled in a imited number of terminals listed, just as passenger stations once were, in the pages of the re-tooled
Official Guide.
Admittedly, American rail-oriented publications, whether focused on professional or hobby interests, devote very little attention to non-American rail freight. I can remember only two
Trains articles, one on British Rail's Freightliner service way back in the late 1960's, and a general overview of European freight operations about ten years ago.
And while my only source of information on current operations is Google Earth, I note with tongue in cheek that the Russian federation, where motor freight traffic once "stopped at the ring road", appears to be trying to develop some sort of highway system which would accomodate the more time-sensitive, high-value, low-bulk traffic. ---- in other words,
supply and demand at work.
Over the long term, whether in the Old or New World, most freight going any distance in heavy volume should find its way back onto the rails. (The close proximity of well-developed water-borne commerce in Wesern Europe should be more of a factor in that market.) As Mr. Matthews himself pointed out in a recent post, the greater attention to timelieness and consistency in mature economies like Switzeland and Japan, coupled with a stable attitude toward heavy industry, makes this possible. But on this side of the Atlantic, millions of us remain wary about turning this over to a form of organization which, while it can afford greater foresight, operates on a bureucratic model toward which many of us retain a strong, and healthy suspicion.