Amtrak Borealis: fka Empire Builder 2nd Daily Frequency Chicago - St Paul

Tadman wrote: ↑Wed Jun 26, 2024 4:40 am Did this train replace a Hiawatha or get a new slot?

The Borealis trains are extended Hiawatha trains. To do so they needed to add Horizon train sets, which have become available with the introduction of the brand new Midwest Siemens Venture train sets. Because they are extended Hiawatha trains, they will be full between Milwaukee and Chicago.

"Ah, ha" (as Oprah was known to say).

So we will have the Morning, Afternoon, and Olympian.

Shall we throw in the Pioneer as well?

Dream on NARP et al

This sold out situation need mitigation now. Time to add / delete either a MKE <> CHI consist to keep open seats north of MKE all the way from CHI to north of MKE.

Or it's time to raise prices...

eolesen wrote: ↑Wed Jun 26, 2024 4:56 pm Or it's time to raise prices...

is it only Amtrak that controls fares or the initiators of this service?

extra coaches seems like the most economical option here.

I guess it depends how they analyze ridership and revenue. Amtrak can’t just up and start a new money-losing run. Which prompts the question of whether this is so revenue-positive that they think they can add a frequency with the existing state commitments. That would be startling, but I’m not sure how else they could be considering it so soon.

And how that new frequency is expected to affect overall corridor ridership and income.

But that is maybe too much speculation. We should have very preliminary figures soon, and June numbers by mid-August.

west point wrote: ↑Wed Jun 26, 2024 5:35 pm

eolesen wrote: ↑Wed Jun 26, 2024 4:56 pm Or it's time to raise prices...

is it only Amtrak that controls fares or the initiators of this service?

No. CTDOT controls local fares on the Amtrak frequencies between and inclusive of Springfield and New Haven. The exception is the Vermonter which doesnt participate in that pricing scheme. They are flat commuter level fares and match the fares that are also in place on the CTrail frequencies that the state operates.

An initial pax count from Wis DOT. This is the first 11 days and between thrill seekers and the fact that no one knew about the option it’s tough to know what to make of it, but roughly 300 pax per train, with more WB than EB.
https://wisarp.wordpress.com/2024/06/30 ... ridership/

Well... subtract 38% for those who would have likely spilled onto other Hiawatha services, and you have 185 passengers a day between St Paul and Milwaukee.

At six coaches, that's less than 50% full.

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Borealis seems to getting more and more crowded. It has become hard to get a seat to yourself eastbound at Winona. The amount of passengers getting on at LaCrosse yesterday blew my mind

eolesen wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 7:03 pm Well... subtract 38% for those who would have likely spilled onto other Hiawatha services, and you have 185 passengers a day between St Paul and Milwaukee.

At six coaches, that's less than 50% full.

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Let it cook. I'll drop after the initial wave, then build back up as more folks try it out.

https://www.theautopian.com/new-amtrak- ... -airlines/

The market share tweet implies that the 25 flights carry an average of 80 passengers. (300=15% of 2,000; 2,000 / 25 = 80.)

That's surprisingly low to me, but I looked it up, and the market is indeed about 2,000 pax/day (DOT city pair stats) and about 25 flights (Expedia with major carriers except SWA = 22). Some airlines must fly small planes on that route.

I think some of this is induced demand. And of course, a lot of it is not Chicago--MSP, but Chicago-Milwaukee. So in the end, I think this train has limited impact on air travel. But adding a 3rd frequency might.

This is more telling, and maybe the reason there is early speculation that a third frequency will start soon -- "turns a profit in its first 11 days". Here's the tweet. The actual article is behind a paywall.

https://x.com/MNRailNotes/status/1808595915877593424

Obviously, this is likely to be meeting operating costs, not amortized capital. And there may well be other asterisks. But it seems clear the train is exceeding expectations. Very intrigued to see the full June report when it comes out at the beginning of August.

I expect that at minimum "turns a profit" means "needed none of the state subsidy", which would mean the already dedicated subsidy could be available for funding the additional frequency, **if early financial outcomes continue.**