roberttosh wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:59 pm
I just don't see where or how CP is ever going to generate much more carload freight and what little they have is eventually going to be susceptible to diversion to CSX. I also don't ever envision the container traffic amounting to the big volumes that some have projected. That leaves CBR, Potash and maybe Ethanol as their main development targets. It will likely remain a one daily train in each direction railroad for the foreseeable future.
CP is going to add a pair of auto/intermodal trains in 2022. It was supposed to happen earlier but 1.) you have the auto chip shortage which has killed that traffic mostly. CP lined up an import deal to backhaul the empty racks, but again manufacturing of vehicles is way off. And 2.) Maersk has done some tests on a transatlantic call to replace Halifax, which would give enough volumes with the Hapag for the daily dedicated jobs. Not sure the delay on that or if it’s still on the books but I’m being told one more steamship line and the autos bouncing back (remember we’ve seen at times 20-30 racks per train before the shortage). Once Lancaster Logistics is done and the dedicated train you’ll see Canadian Tire domestic business. They’ve run two trials so far, just need a dedicated service for them to move forward.
End of the day, you’ve got a Class I who is only 16 months into completely rebuilding a mostly neglected plant for 25 years and already has added new traffic. MMA ran the Moosehead 3 days a week, CMQ ran 5 days with those Tuesday trains being fairly small, also running marginal profit logs filling out the trains often. There are still tons of opportunities in development, not just the intermodal and autos, but more manifest traffic. CSX is years away from offering competitive service via Keag from their takeover… you think CP had a challenge rebuilding CSX is basically doing a full ground up new build.