electricron wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:54 pm
As is, the Auto Train is Amtrak's fastest train running on long distance mostly single track rails, mainly because it is a non-stop train. How are you going to make it 5 or 10 mph faster on average on tracks owned mostly by CSX? That's the biggest gorilla you have to overcome - please explain how you will accomplish that!
I'm wondering how much the Virginia plan (and the hints that NC will follow suit) will help the Auto Train a decade from now. It should get the train off freight roads for the first short segment, right? Would it be useful for Auto Train to take the S-Line to Raleigh once tracks are restored, or is the Raleigh-Columbia, SC-Savannah route too slow or busy? How much might these changes increase avg. speed?
My assessment of any Auto Train expansion is that it would be very hard to build a completely new Midwestern market from scratch, because of lack of awareness and the limits of any reasonable marketing campaign to find the few tens of thousands of people who might do this, amidst the many millions of people you would have to put the campaign in front of. The only way it works is through incremental expansion of the existing base. If better track speed and availability allows addition of a second train, you start to have a significant base of awareness both in the East Coast and in Florida; that might allow the creation of a second route to Florida, from the Midwest, helped along by Midwestern snowbirds hearing about it from their friends; and by the existence of the Sanford facility, lowering costs of a start-up.
I think any such train in the Midwest would have to serve a collection of cities, so it would need to be far enough south to be in a catchment zone, far enough north that the driving time it eliminates is sufficient to make it worthwhile. Indianapolis is interesting, but I actually think Cincinnati would be ideal. Cincy-Sanford is a 13-hour drive through Asheville; Cincy-Orlando 12:50 through Chattanooga. That is roughly actually a bit longer than Lorton-Sanford, so it seems like a sufficient route. Cincinnati's markets would be Detroit, Cleveland, Columbus, Toledo, Indy, Chicago and Milwaukee.
Perhaps there's no remotely viable route from Cincinnati. But we're kind of dreaming here anyway, so I thought I'd put it out there.
ElectricRon, I'm sympathetic with the idea that Amtrak shouldn't subsidize such service, but I would note a few things. My grandmother long drove to a winter trailer home in Florida from her very middling farm in Michigan, so there may be a wider range of retirees than you give credit for. I also note the comments suggesting the current subsidy is quite minimal, to the point that it might be "operationally" self-sufficient depending on how you do the accounting. How do you assess that calculation? How much in capital costs is being left out? How do you assess what looks to me like a significant growth trend for Amtrak on the east coast? Does that have the potential for pushing this train into truly black regions of the spreadsheet?