Pan Am Southern / Patriot Corridor Discussion

I don't think that there's any question in terms of whether or not the NS will use the B&A for IM. They'll be able to improve their economics and grow business by having the ability to DS and will also be able to speed up service vs using the B&M.

Perhaps it’s a question of when, not if, NS exploits the CSX trackage rights. NS must fund a significant trackage rights start up cost by 1) rehabbing the Albany Main between Delanson and Voorheesville, 2) paying CSX to install a new turnout onto the Selkirk branch presumably remotely controlled and wired into CSX CTC/PTC, 3) paying for clearance improvements over P&W and Worcester main to Harvard.

NS has had IM trackage rights over PAS from Mechanicville to Ayer since its inception in 2009 but for reasons unknown to me has never opted to hire crews to run 22K/23K over PAS.

johnpbarlow wrote: ↑Sat May 07, 2022 7:29 am As of the first week in May 2022, eyeball observations from the Elkhart IN live rail cam suggest NS has reverted 22K to every other day service for Ayer. The consists of 22K-02, 22K-04, and 22-06 were seen at Elkhart with 10-22 double stacked wells for Taylor followed by single stacked wells or spines with 87 to 97 containers presumably bound for Ayer. And 22K-03 and 22K-05 had only Taylor and Mechanicville containers (mostly double stacked but many containers were on spines).

And on Friday 5/6/22, 23K passed west through Elkhart with 31 double stacked Taylors, 97 Ayer singles, and no obvious Mechanicvilles.

Note that the NS intermodal schedules web site indicates that Ayer and Mechanicville still receive daily 22K service.

For the past couple of weeks, 22K has been averaging between 40 to 75 containers per day destined for Ayer. If these containers were double stacked, it would yield about a 2,500 foot long consist. In my limited observations, something like 10-20 auto racks go to Sanvel each day. This suggests that if 22K was running double-stacked with Sanvel autos on the CSX Boston line today, its consist length would be no more than 4,500 feet if it ran daily, or about half the 9,000 foot max train length that NS trackage rights over CSX term sheet permits.

The plan is for the racks to still go via PAS. You're forgetting the P&W racks as well that need to go that way.

johnpbarlow wrote: ↑Sat May 07, 2022 1:28 pm Perhaps it’s a question of when, not if, NS exploits the CSX trackage rights. NS must fund a significant trackage rights start up cost by 1) rehabbing the Albany Main between Delanson and Voorheesville, 2) paying CSX to install a new turnout onto the Selkirk branch presumably remotely controlled and wired into CSX CTC/PTC, 3) paying for clearance improvements over P&W and Worcester main to Harvard.

NS has had IM trackage rights over PAS from Mechanicville to Ayer since its inception in 2009 but for reasons unknown to me has never opted to hire crews to run 22K/23K over PAS.

They are only allowed to exercise those rights if the poison pill is swallowed. Service levels on PAS have to dip to a point.... The fact of the matter is they've never had enough crews to do any better so they haven't done a thing except embargo the traffic when needed.

I’m not forgetting about the P&W racks (or the Mechanicville racks either). They will go via Gardner, presumably on whatever replaces ED8, I’d guess (although CSX seems to be hauling 10 or so racks to P&W every other day at the moment so maybe it becomes moot).

I’m curious what the basis is to support the assertion that, despite the trackage rights agreement language, NS will continue to send Sanvel racks via PAS instead of via the IM train via the B&A?

Do you know what the NS plan is to execute its granted IM trackage rights over CSX?

I haven’t heard anything definitive on the routing for the racks though I think CSX has all the PW business now as nothing has moved over Gardner in weeks.

PAR is still operating PAS, right? So G&W doesn't run over PAS until the merger is finalized? But the agreement with CSX is already being honored, so right now their costs over CSX are less than their costs over PAS. Once B&E starts up the economics change, since the PAS track becomes "no additional cost", and I assume they have to pay CSX something every time they exercise their trackage rights??

BobbyT wrote: ↑Sat May 07, 2022 11:38 am One thing to consider is that even with full DS clearance, it is unlikely that every container will be double stacked. CSX still runs lots of singles on the B&A, so there must be a reason why not every container is double stacked, such as not having enough well cars available.

If I may jump in here: there are many reasons why you might see singles (equipment balance/availability, clearance issues elsewhere, etc), but a rather common/underrated one is weight. Remember, the vast majority of stack cars are articulated, so are sharing a pair of (these days, usually 125t) trucks with their neighbors. Means they have much less carrying capacity of a normal freight car. Normally that's fine, because containers have to travel on trucks too so are generally relatively light, but there are cases where you have containers heavy enough that stacking will break that limit, forcing singles. 20 foot containers often produce this problem; they're overwhelmingly used by high-weight products, so you may be ending up with 3 truckload weight equivalents on a platform if you plop a 40 or 53 atop them.

johnpbarlow wrote: ↑Sat May 07, 2022 5:49 pm I’m not forgetting about the P&W racks (or the Mechanicville racks either). They will go via Gardner, presumably on whatever replaces ED8, I’d guess (although CSX seems to be hauling 10 or so racks to P&W every other day at the moment so maybe it becomes moot).

I’m curious what the basis is to support the assertion that, despite the trackage rights agreement language, NS will continue to send Sanvel racks via PAS instead of via the IM train via the B&A?

Do you know what the NS plan is to execute its granted IM trackage rights over CSX?

The basis is I've been told as of now the agreement is for Hill Yard intermodal only on the trackage rights over CSXT. That could change but that's as it sits today.

The trackage rights agreement per the filing does allow for both Intermodal and auto traffic. Whether they exercise those rights with the auto traffic remains to be seen.

Correct.

Something apparently went on the ground in Schagticoke this morning.

Containers are mentioned, but it's apparently 16R, so trash empties?

Isn’t there a lot of water around Schagticoke? Are any formally ocean going containers floating around?

There has been a failing embankment at Buttermilk Falls in Schagticoke - bad enough you can see it onGoogleEarth. Perhaps this contributed to the derailment.

In other news I’m hearing some of the planned undercuts for the Worcester Main turned out to be too wet - which may cause them to raise the bridges instead. If this turns out to be true it could turn the project timeline from months to years.

NS feels it is cheaper to send the racks over PAS rather than use the B&A rights plus PAS switch charge to get them into San Vel. You would think the shippers would pay a little extra for the service upgrade.

And all of a sudden the prospect for modernizing the Hoosac Tunnel is looking betterer and betterer.