Montreal - Portland passenger service, past and future

gokeefe wrote:Finally it is also very important to remember that this route passes through Bethel which was the terminus for the modern New England Ski Train out of North Station to Sunday River for a number of years.

I don't recall this train ever running from North Station...Portland, yes. Did it ever run from North Station?

highrail wrote:I don't recall this train ever running from North Station...Portland, yes. Did it ever run from North Station?

No. It was a StL&A operation.

Sorry about that one my goof on the ski train. I must have crossed the old Ski Train with the new ski train.

Cowford wrote:PS: How do you figure the 40-60k estimate?

Let's start with an estimate of the correct order of magnitude. We know that the population of Maine is about 1.3 million of which approximately half or better live south of Augusta.

In our selection of a possible estimate we have the following orders of magnitude to choose from which are obvious enough... 1,000k, 100k, 10k, or 1k. We know based anecdotal evidence that there are thousands of tourists from Quebec that come to Maine every year, with a high concentration of visitors to Old Orchard Beach, among other destinations.

If we assume that a train service offering would be competitive enough to actually draw a few passengers we can narrow down our available orders of magnitude. 1,000k as this order probably represents the entire travel market, even including short trips across the border in places like Jackman. So now we are left with 100k, 10k, or 1k orders of magnitude. Keep in mind these figures represent a range (100k=100,000-999,999).

I felt your initial calculation of 4,000 only represented the casual/leisure travel market. I also felt there was additional potential for incremental travel. If I made the assumption that 1. leisure travel might only represent a small portion of the potential travel market (somewhere between 5-33%) and 2. there would be an increase in travel to and from Montreal we start arriving at the 10k order of magnitude. Let's say casual travel is 33% of the market, then total passengers would be 12,000 @ 4,000 leisure. But remember your figures only included Mainers. So let's assume the exchange is roughly equal, now we have 8,000 leisure travelers total which at 33% of total means 24,000 riders.

Working into these numbers a little further if we assume skiing ridership and not just summer ridership as you initially did let's say that increases ridership by 50% from Quebec, meaning 4,000 becomes 6,000 and let's say it increases by ridership by 25% from Maine, as some people may be more likely to drive because they're closer, etc. so that's another 1,000. So now our leisure travel is at 11,000 which @ 33% of ridership makes total ridership about 33,000. I happen to believe that leisure travel at 33% is extreme. I believe there is a business travel component composed of weekly commuters some college or exchange students, and also people visiting their families which I wouldn't necessarily include in the leisure travel market, which to me is more about the tourists. Being generous let's round the numbers down to somethig more like 25% leisure travel, this gets us to a low range of 44,000 total ridership per year. I am most definitely postulating that there would be an incremental increase in discretionary travel as a result of this new option. Some of it by people who simply aren't comfortable driving this route in the winter.

Sorry for the double post but my post editor is cutting me off sometimes and I don't know why.

I would emphasize in regards to the initial numbers that 4,000 leisure travellers from Quebec is easily the daily, if not hourly, volume during certain parts of the year. Old Orchard Beach alone easily has as many as 2,000-5,000 Quebecois in town on some weekends. The idea that only 1% or less of them would take the train strikes me as absurd.

In regards to the question of why people from Quebec would ski in Maine as opposed to Vermont I would reply that's because Maine's skiing conditions are among the best in the Eastern United States and although Vermont might have more snow our hills are somewhat larger, Sugarloaf and Sunday River in particular.

I agree that the Downeaster comparison is apples to oranges. But the case that I'm trying to make is that conditions in favor of train travel are stronger for this service than POR-BOS because there is no easy way to travel by car or bus, and airplanes are very expensive. Admittedly the market appears to be smaller because this train wouldn't be used by commuters. That's the point where I think ridership falls out of the 100k order of magnitude. So although the market is smaller it is almost certainly there.

GO'K - I'll call you on your position regarding business travel and skiing. First, according to a Maine state report, only 5% of overnight Canadian travel to Maine is business-related. Second, Sugarloaf is two hours from the nearest SLR railhead, but only a four-hour drive from Montreal. Who the heck is going to choose an eight hour car-train-bus journey over a 4 hr drive?

About the the report: it's loaded with tons of good data about Canadian visitation to Maine. (Google "Maine2006CanadianVisitors") and southbound potential: Here my take (Most data is from the report or other stats; I've highlighted my SWAGs):

Visits are broken down between day and overnight trips. Interestingly, 82% of Canadian trips to Maine were day trips (93% of those trips originated in NB). Eliminate those trips altogether.

Onto overnight trips: In 2006, there were 940K Canadian overnight trips to Maine. Of that, 5% of the overnight visits were business-related… throw those out- business travelers will almost always drive or fly. Each trip included 2.4 people on average; 39% were ex PQ. That’s a total of 836K visitors from PQ, more than 10% of PQ’s population (which sounds incredibly high, but I’ll trust the report).

PQ’s population is 7.5M, greater Montreal is 3.6M. Let’s say 75% live within a convenient distance to the train… that’s 5M people. Apply that to the 836K, and you get an initial potential market of 627K individual trips/yr. From there:

The train would typically be too expensive relative to autos for parties of more than two. That eliminates three-quarters of ridership. ~242K trips/yr remain. Now, the train’s “sweet spot” for PQ tourists is the Maine Coast, immediately south/west of Portland, but let’s say 50% go elsewhere not convenient for the train. 121K trips/yr remain. Finally, 90% of the remaining potential will choose the auto due to flexibility of travel, cost vs train + rental car. 12K trips, or 24K one-way train trips. The period July-Sept account for 55% of the business, so nine months out of the year, demand couldn’t even support a single one-way bus trip, even if you added in the Maine folks into the mix.

Which is maybe why there is not even direct bus service between Portland and Montreal.

Dear Cowford,

I am both disappointed and surprised that the travel market to Montreal is in fact so small. I threw in Sugarloaf off hand because I've skied there before and seen Quebec license plates. That doesn't necessarily mean they came from Montreal by any means. I agree Sugarloaf isn't in the running but if they'll drive to Sugarloaf I see no reason why Vermont gets everyone from Quebec, although I'm sure they do get lots of people from Montreal, which I'm pretty sure is what you were referring to.

In regards to your operating assumptions, throw out day trips fine, I agree, business travel too, ok maybe but I would be interested to see how much of that is to Portland. If there is a significant amount to Portland I think it should be included.

I disagree that family travel (trips of two or more) should be eliminated. I think these people are more likely to switch to the train than less. The facility accomodations and amenities aboard the train are easy to market to families that don't want to deal with the drive. I'm not convinved that some type of family fares wouldn't attract this market. I'm not certain that they would feel compelled to rent a car in OOB. Especially with the Downeaster available for day trips to Portland and Freeport.

I agree it could be possible that 50% of travel from PQ is to parts elsewhere that would not be accessible to rail service. Bar Harbor in particular is one of their favorite spots.

If you don't eliminate parties of more than two while maintaining a 90-10 split car-train then you have 60,000 one way trips a year by train (or 30,000 roundtrips). Again, this excludes travel from Maine and also excludes the possibility of incremental growth. But regardless we're still working in the same order of magnitude, 10k. I feel further calculations need to consider the fact that any incremental business generated in the winter would skew heavily in favor of train travel.

I used to work at New Balance in Oxford Hills. While working there we depending heavily on the Canadian tourists traveling down Route 2 and Route 26. They were headed to Portland, OOB and Wells Beach mostly. At times the entire store was speaking French (16,000 SQ FT store). Don't doubt the tourists from our neighbors to the North. The strong Canadian dollar and luxury of riding a train instead of driving a car also drives them. They live there VIA rail.

G, Just to clarify on families, I threw out three or more (I stated "more than two') as I figure the train would have to be at least $100/RT per person (plus any transporation and parking at origin + transfer costs to destination or auto rental) vs. an out-of-pocket auto cost of ~$100... and note that I just edited to correct a calculation error which brought numbers down a bit more.

I don't know, man. I've just thrown a bunch of SWAGs in with what appears to be a plausible market study. As you state, one or more of my assumptions could be WAY off, but it does seem to explain why there is no public transport offered now. I'd anticipate significant reluctance of Canadian "converts" based on what's happened with the Downeaster. It's relatively easy to get a Mainer on the train for a trip to Boston, as you don't need a car to get around, and Boston can be intimidating/a pain in which to drive and park. It's been a much bigger (and so far unsuccessful) challenge to encourage Bostonians to come north to Portland by rail. Portland's small size and lack of connecting public transport just doesn't allow the city to work as a rail destination.

Cowford wrote:Portland's small size and lack of connecting public transport just doesn't allow the city to work as a rail destination.

Would you mind clarifying what you meant when you said there is no connecting public transport in Portland? I hear a lot of people saying this, and as someone who lives in Portland, I find these statements perplexing. All one needs to do is go to the Portland train station at "train time" and you'll see at least a dozen taxi cabs ready and waiting to pick people up, and the city bus stops there every few minutes. "Lack of connecting public transport" makes it sound like train passengers would be stranded there with no way to get into town, and that simply is not the case.

Sure 407 - I'm not saying that Portland has no public transport at all, or that folks would be stranded - I stated that there was a LACK of connecting transport. Examples: The hub of Portland's bus service appears to be Elm Street. Near as I can tell, the train station is served by only one bus line (route 5), which runs not every few minutes, but every 30 minutes or so (I'm referencing the gpmetrobus map and schedule). If you want to go to the Old Port, for example, you'd first have to wait up to half an hour, then sit on a bus for 20 minutes to Elm St, then walk to your destination. Or you could cab it. Not sure how easy it is for someone to hail a cab when down there to get back. Want to go to South Portland (not including the Maine Mall) or Cape Elizabeth, Scarborough or Yarmouth? You've got an expensive cab ride ahead. And how do you get back? For instance, you visit Two Lights: Does the cab wait for you with the meter on? Locals may figure out some of the tricks to getting around more conveniently. Tourists and business people aren't going to bother.

I know I come off as the biggest anti-train/public transport crumudgeon imaginable, but I'm a huge fan of commuter rail,light rail and buses when employed sensibly. And I'm not just saying that; I live in Chicago and take public/alternative transport to work daily and the airport virtually every time I fly. I walk or often bike to the grocery store/run errands if I can carry what I buy, sometimes run to/from work, and rarely drive more that 1-200 miles/month excepting the occasional work drive/weekend getaway. But I don't select what best benefits society, per se. My transport choices are based on cost, convenience, ability to get exercise, and speed. How each attribute gets ranked changes from trip to trip.

I think that's how most people make their choices.

Cowford,
Keep in mind the average wait time for the bus would be a very reasonable 15 minutes. Assuming a bell curve distribution only a very very small number of people would ever have to wait the entire 30 minutes. Although you my not be able to see it on the map the walking distance from 'METRO Pulse' is actually quite short, about 3-5 minutes, if that. You're pretty much on top of the Old Port when you get dropped off at METRO Pulse. I'm sure the local hotels offer pickup service from the PTC. I'd be very surprised if they didn't. Some of these hotels are right down in the Old Port, others are less convenient.

I agree that tourists and business people aren't going to bother. They'll either rent a car or have the concierge/front desk staff at the hotel assist them with arrangements. I still believe that in many cases the train's convenience, especially in the longer distance mode that we have discussing can equal or outweigh the cost factor, especially when special fare plans or large group discounts are taken into account.

Where the cost factor does become very important is in the long term consideration of government agencies who are responsible for funding and capitalizing these projects. To the extent we have discussed this issue so far we can agree that there is at a minimum sufficient potential ridership to justify seasonal service to OOB. Even when the Grand Trunk was running service to and from OOB during the summer, ridership, apparently, was quite poor. So we can say again at a minimum that our starting point for the service is already ahead of where it ended in the late 60's. Does this justify new service startup? Not necessarily. Does it justify continued study and investigation? I would say emphatically yes. Clearly this project is far more promising than the proposed rehabilitation of the Mountain Division which could best be described as an exercise in absurdity. There are numerous other proposed projects by MDOT such as the continued usage of bond funds on the Lewiston Lower Road that are far less worthy of investment than the Montreal - Portland passenger restoration (study).

Although you my not be able to see it on the map the walking distance from 'METRO Pulse' is actually quite short, about 3-5 minutes, if that.

You sure about that? Pulse is at Elm and Congress, no? Google maps shows the distance as 2.2 miles via Congress St. The bus schedule calls for 20 minutes between PTC and Pulse.

To the extent we have discussed this issue so far we can agree that there is at a minimum sufficient potential ridership to justify seasonal service to OOB.

I actually take the view that the evidence indicates that there is NOT sufficient ridership potential, even for seasonal service. Why does this not pass the smell test (for me at least)? First, our rough estimates of ridership for the summer are pretty slim to begin with... more appropriate for seasonal bus service. But let's say you could get a 1-2K riders each week on average over the summer. it's still seasonal, and seasonal = $$$. The saying, "building a church for Easter" comes to mind. You would have to upgrade track, build and maintain infrastructure, hire employees, secure rolling stock, etc... for a three-month service. And within the season any ridership would vary greatly, skewed primarily to July and August, and throughout the period with Fri and Sun as heaviest travel days. That would be hellishly expensive and a monster to manage/operate.

Cowford,

I was referring to the distance from METRO Pulse to the Old Port. I agree the distance from PTC to Pulse is substantial and not pedestrian friendly at all.

Looking back at our numbers let's say we have only 15,000 trips from PQ during the summer months, which was that 55% you mentioned. Let's also keep in mind its 15,000 roundtrips, or 15,000 passengers who travel the Montreal to OOB/Portland leg, with the requisite return trips. Even making these assumptions that's 166 people a day. (15,000 divided by 90 days) Let's also remember that we're probably only talking about one train a day in each direction. So one train would be carrying on average 166 people. That is more than two bus coaches full of people it's something close to 2 1/4 - 2 1/3 depending on the exact size of the bus. If we go with your assumption of 1,000 - 2,000 riders per week and take the middle ground of 1,500 here are the results: (1,500 x 12 weeks=18,000 passengers for the entire season). (18,000 divided by 90 days=200 people a day). Keep in mind this calculation is still in fact somewhat conservative, 12 weeks actually equals only 84 days so at that rate you might have something more like (18,000 divided by 84 days = 214 people a day). Keep in mind we're still being conservative on numbers (1,500 average).

Now to get an idea of what these numbers translate into Amtrak terms lets take the normal NNEPRA long distance Amfleet 60 seat configuration and see what that gives us (214/60=3.5, 200/60=3.3, 166/60=2.7) So even on the lowest calculation possible we still get a four car train, three coach, one cafe car. I think this is a very respectable start, but wait there's more!

SLR is a very very well maintained railroad. The track upgrades necessary would be minor. I can dig out some comparative figures if necessary but I remember something south of $15 million. As it stands right now without any incentive for passenger service SLR is laying CWR as mentioned in some of the other discussion threads. The overheard and administrative is relatively cheap because NNEPRA already has the administrative ability to handle the second service. The hard part is the operating agreement with Amtrak, and the required Canadian parties and making sure Amtrak has enough rolling stock to run a four car train that has the potential to sellout in a hurry (remember we were only working with averages)!

Whoa-you are taking my numbers out of context. The 1-2000/wk number was not an estimate but an exaggeration (glad I didn't say 10K!) so let's drop that possibility unless you can give some justification as to those levels. So, go back to my original swag- that's 12K round trips/yr. 55% is summer, so that's 6,600 ea way over three months. That's 73 passengers ea way per day... and doesn't include fluctuation by season and day of week. No stations enroute? You'll have to reduce ridership estimates.

Go greyhound on this one, man

gokeefe wrote:I'm sure the local hotels offer pickup service from the PTC. I'd be very surprised if they didn't. Some of these hotels are right down in the Old Port, others are less convenient.

I see hotel shuttles at the PTC all the time. All of the major hotels have them; they'll gladly pick you up or drop you off at the PTC, or take you pretty much anywhere you want to go. I meant to mention that in my previous post but it slipped my mind.

As I mentioned in a different thread, the Portland Jetport isn't as close to downtown as the PTC is, and yet that certainly doesn't stop people from using it. Between the buses, taxi cabs, and hotel shuttles, it is 100% possible to get from there to downtown without having to walk or rent a car. The same is true of the PTC.