by F-line to Dudley via Park
jmar896 wrote:I think that if rentals keep being used it will just become a continuous cycle. It might be time to start looking into investing into some new (or used) power that the T could own.Unfortunately there's just not a lot out there right now to buy + refurb because everybody's most-recent dispersals have already been laundered through the aftermarket to the rent-a-wreck brokers. With exception of those beat-to-hell NJT F40PH-2CAT's the rental F40's are all Screamers as unsuitable as the AMT units that couldn't stay on the road here; all other -2C's are still locked up on somebody's active roster. F59PH's are the most plentiful rebuild-worthy swaps for rebuilds at the moment, but with those never being tried before on the East Coast I can't see the T going there unless Keolis tries them out on very short-term lease from a broker first. All of this will change in a huge way if AMTK drains the Charger options because a whole ton of rebuild-worthy Gennies will hit the aftermarket. But that's in 2-3 years, not today in any way that'll help with a week-to-week emergency.
None of the current locomotives are getting any younger. The Geeps have been in service for 20 years since their last major rebuild. The 2Cs are not far behind, however it is justifiable that they go for another major rebuild. When the HSPs were ordered they were intended to replace some Geeps and 2Cs, but have they really replaced many of the ones they were intended to? From how it sounds right now the fleet isn't exactly fit enough to permanently replace the units that are out, even once the HSPs are fully in service. Also, service isn't decreasing and the system isn't getting any smaller.The -2C's are in rough shape. Some units are going to be more rebuildable than others, but as the canceled RFP shows the agency isn't equipped right now to ballpark costs for band-aid fixes OR full midlife overhaul to -3C spec because they simply don't have the bandwidth to deep-dive under the hood of each unit and plot them all on a curve from best- to worst-condition. I doubt it's going to be economical to rehab every single one of them because costs for the worst-off units are going to blow out the budget for the program. And given that the -2C's have a few sad sacks at the blowout end of that cost scale, forget about any fantasies re: rebuilds of the stored Screamers; that dream has passed now that we know the 10-years-younger batches aren't anywhere near as stable as we thought they were.
And no rebuild is going to solve the numbers problem because the Geeps are shot and won't get any takers for another life extension at a cost worth paying because of those stupid unorthodox microprocessor mods. They won't even fetch post-retirement interest from freight carriers because of that, and are most likely just going to be carbody donors for MPI to do more "hermit crab" re-powers. They will have to buy some new units, or wait for something rebuildable in quantity to come along like the AMTK P42's to fix the problem permanently when not every single oldie on the roster can be saved. Maybe that means a partial- or majority- rebuild of the F40's with the PHM's and best-of-the-rest EMD -2C's getting picked through, but you're still looking at ~25 new purchases to replace the active Geeps and whatever handful of -2C's are in too poor shape to stay within-cost in rebuild.
Also, call me crazy but I think it may be worth looking into obtaining a few ABB-44s for service to Providence. I believe that NJT will only lease them at this time, but considering most of them only have 15 years of service on them and the minimal work needed to bring them back into service they could be worth it. Although an agreement would need to be made with Amtrak for use of their electrification infrastructure (and presumably maintenance too), the benefits they could bring are immense.No. Electrics are not plug-and-play like they could be here tomorrow. The Providence Line is only equipped with enough present electrical capacity to run Amtrak trains. The T has to spend to fill the empty half of Sharon substation before generation capacity exists for T electrics on the NEC. They need to wire up the Attleboro station platforms and Pawtucket layover with RIDOT's funding help. They need to build their own engine house somewhere like Readville to service them, because AMTK Southampton shops are at-capacity and were changed out from all their AEM-7 and HHP-8 servicing capabilities to only do the Sprinters.
And to do the Wickford schedules under wires requires a separate RIDOT/Amtrak grant to fix the freight clearances at T.F. Green, since the P&W autoracks that currently use the platform track don't clear the two wired express tracks and would no longer clear any tracks if the platform track were wired. That'll entail undercutting the trackbed on the wired tracks by ~4 feet so the freights can clear the wires. But it can't be done until RIDOT builds Track 4 and the future infill northbound platform so Amtrak trains have a wired-up place to "lane-shift" while the two express tracks are being undercut. Not overly expensive, but some complicated logistics involved and lots of advance coordination between RIDOT and Amtrak to make it happen.
At best case, a Go For It Now decision made today for flipping Providence service to electric will take 5 years to enact simply because of default budgeting + permitting + procurement timetables for the extra substation equipment installation, erecting a minimalist engine house, and infilling the lengths of wire at the layover with cross-state cooperation. Maybe longer on the Wickford schedules because RIDOT can't turn its funding on a dime and they have to wait for Amtrak. By that point any used electrics will be long scrapped or idle way too long for a rebuild, and they could take delivery of a fresh order of Sprinters within that gestation period. Unfortunately the logistics around this, while routine, can't be sped up any faster than 4-5 years so there's no quick fixes.
Really though, its time for the state and fiscal control board to smarten up. In the long run having proper investment in rolling stock will cost us less, and attract more people. I think an order to fully phase out the Geeps should be placed by 2020, but that wishful thinking. There are plenty of new, as well as tried options available. It might be time to look into them.Timing...timing is the problem. A glut is on the way for aftermarket locos, but 2 years from now not today. And when NJT and MNRR have bid out their next bi-level purchases in the next couple years there'll be a 2020 glut of aftermarket East Coast mid-90's vintage, more recently rebuilt Shoreliner III's and Comet IV's in better condition than any of our 210 Bombers/MBB's. But those better-condition coaches don't exist today, and the T can't keep up with 4-year inspections on its active fleet let alone dip into mothballs and sink more intensive prep-for-service labor into its stored units.
I wonder, is it possible for MassDOT to obtain rolling stock and lease them as they see fit? With rail activity in Western Mass picking up maybe its worth a look.
Honestly, I don't think the FCMB is going to find a way out of this trying to pussyfoot around another F40 RFP that's intentionally obtuse and indecisive about whether it'll be band-aids or rebuilds. Just bond out for a 25-unit base order of rote-vanilla Siemens Chargers with flex options for up to 25 more and take the sure thing that everyone else is looking at. At the rate Siemens is surging ahead of schedule on that AMTK order the first T-logoed revenue unit will probably get here just as fast as the first F40PH-3C full-on rebuild with all the time they're wasting navel-gazing on what to do with the current fleet. The HSP's are sunk cost. The fleet's never going to be united around the GEVO platform now. Just take the Cummins engine and deal with the overhead of maintaining GE's, Cummins, and EMD's...because it'll still be less maint-intensive than charting their own course with more unproven decisions made under pressure.
Besides, at least they can get an immediate pick with that RFP. There's no such obvious vendor for the coach/cab car shortage when Kawasaki-Yonkers is swamped with MTA orders, Bombardier charges a premium for Bombardier quality, and Rotem + CRRC are just going to underbid everyone at a loss to brute-force it while papering over bad reputation and/or inexperience making FRA-compliant cars. It's two procurements from hell that the FCMB has to focus on or watch the system slowly die from indecision. At least the loco one has one Captain Obvious consensus choice of new unit that's running away with the market making that decision more cut-and-dried if they put up the cash to do it right.
