MBTA presents to MA's Fiscal and Management Control Board: the future of commuter rail

[johnpbarlow]

I have yet to see this presentation posted on Massachusetts' Fiscal and Management Control Board web site but Trains Magazine on-line reported on it. I've posted the link below (there's a paywall) and here are a few highlights:

The MBTA’s buses are now carrying 41% of 2019 passenger levels, while its commuter rail lines are stuck at 12%.

As the pandemic drags on, many large companies that initially expected to bring workers back in January are now delaying a return until July 2021. When those workers head back to the office, the traditional 9-to-5, Monday-through-Friday workweek may be replaced with staggered shifts, alternate office days and optional work from home.

Most routes with high ridership serving transit-dependent customers [ie, those who can't work from home and may not have a car] will maintain existing service, and some may see increased service. Routes on the other end of the spectrum — with low ridership and less rider dependency on transit — are most likely to lose service...

...The MBTA identified 65% of bus routes as a top priority, along with all subway and light rail lines. But only the Fairmount commuter rail line falls into that category...

...drastic service reductions are being discussed. Options include eliminating weekend service, reducing peak-time and mid-day schedules, or ending weekday service after 9:00 pm. Some stations could be closed. Service changes would take place in July 2021.

Once these cuts are made, the MBTA considers them permanent.

Capital investments are also on the chopping block or could be delayed by years. The MBTA is looking at reallocating $150 million of annual federal formula funds from capital projects to preventive maintenance, at least for the short term. Orders for new rail cars could be canceled or postponed, and the current fleet could be trimmed to reduce maintenance costs.

https://trn.trains.com/news/news-wire/2 ... muter-rail

[Trinnau]

It was presented early last month. TRAINS is a little behind but probably to write a comprehensive article.

[charding]

Wonder what affect this will have on the South Coast expansion to New Bedford considering what amounts to a severe decrease in potential ridership?

[Arborwayfan]

Why cut in July, not right away? Allowing for distancing now, and figuring by July that won't be needed? Or are there rules that require a long wait?

[Red Wing]

July 1st is the start of the Commonwealths fiscal year.

[HenryAlan]

As said above, it's connected to the fiscal year. The FY21 budget can sustain current operations. As for what actually happens, the presentation is a message to the legislature and governor, not an actual outcome we should expect.

[njtmnrrbuff]

Hopefully there won't be too many significant service cuts to commuter rail but yes, right now the system is struggling. In better times from my experience of riding the MBTA commuter trains during off peak hours, I have noticed that on many lines, the ridership isn't good as others. On the Fitchburg Line, many of those off peak trains are probably not operating more than half filled. I can tell that the crew doesn't open up all of the cars on those trains. I wouldn't be surprised if the pilot service to Foxboro doesn't become permanent. It seems that people who live in Foxboro have plenty of choices nearby-Providence Line at Mansfield and the Franklin Line isn't too far away. If there is one line that should be getting some more rail service, that would be the Providence Line.

The Fairmount Line is pretty important. The stations along that line are in transit dependent areas. The ride on the commuter rail from many of those stations is faster to South Station than having to take a bus to the Mattapan-Ashmont High Speed Trolley Line and then switching to the Red Line at Ashmont.

How has the ridership been on those trains heading to Plymouth by way of Kingston? If the ridership is low on those trains by the time they get to Plymouth, then I would just have them terminate at Kingston Station, providing a bus connection for those people heading to Plymouth.

[BandA]

What is the highway congestion like at rush hour? What about parking availability / price in Boston/Cambridge/Somerville/Chelsea/Everett? Will the constitutional requirement for a state balanced budget be enforced during FY 2022 or FY 2023? Answer these questions and I will tell you what should be done.

[BandA]

The media is sounding the alarm bells about the cutbacks to boats, trains, and buses. Seems like they plan to use capital to paper over the operating deficit for this year, then cut expenses next year. This is irrational, they should cut service immediately then restore some of it next year.

Amazingly they propose eliminating those stops in Weston that they have talked about for years.

[charlesriverbranch]

Here is what the MBTA is proposing, according to boston.com:
https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/ ... oronavirus

There will be no commuter rail weekend service on any line, and weekday service will stop at 9 PM. Weekend service will be cut as early as January.

Other cuts include all ferry service and a few bus lines; the Green Line E branch will be truncated to Brigham Circle.

Then there's this:
"During a FMCB meeting Monday afternoon, Poftak also stressed that the cuts do not amount to a 'permanent shrinkage' and that officials hope to 'build back' service when revenue eventually returns."

[NRGeep]

Seems to be the optimal time to transfer the Big Dig Debt of 3.8 billion that Governor Weld dumped on the MBTA and find it find a new home. Mass Lottery perhaps?
It may not have been intended as a "poison pill," yet now is the time to transfer that debt to a state agency or agencies that can take it on without effecting operations.

[typesix]

Present Gov Baker was the chief architect for this plan of attaching the debt to the MBTA.

[BandA]

https://pioneerinstitute.org/better_gov ... -the-mbta/ Feb 13, 2015

The MBTA's debt comes from three sources — $1.85 billion from spending since the 2000 start of forward funding, $1.65 billion that was transferred to the MBTA under forward funding and was related to previous transit projects, and $1.7 billion in funding for projects mandated under a Big Dig-related agreement.

First and foremost, the MBTA’s debt is in no way related to the construction of Big Dig tunnels, ramps, bridges and roadways meant for motor vehicle use.

So, the Big Dig Debt was only $1.7B not $3.8B, and it was more of an unfunded mandate for projects that the MBTA was required to do even though they could not afford them, and probably should not have been done.

[Trinnau]

What is the highway congestion like at rush hour?

As someone who has commuted through the entire pandemic from North of Boston on the I-93 corridor, my typical commute is either entirely at highway speed or has a brief slowdown, more frequently in the afternoon/evening. It's busier now than it was in April and backs up if there is an accident, but the "daily grind" isn't there. My daily commute time has been cut by about 40-50% of pre-pandemic. Co-workers from other parts of the state have reported the same.

Here's the presentation from the FMCB meeting.

[johnpbarlow]

And the weekday commuter rail commutation ridership curve has been flattened!