Major grade-crossing accident in Valhalla 2/3/15

Jeff Smith wrote:Semper Fi, thanks for that awesome link to a dispassionate anyalysis. One hates to think that this boils down to basic numbers and economics, but it's a good model.

Some interesting snippetsfrom the analysis:

...

Authorities knew the crossing had the potential to be hazardous. A predictive model developed by the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) estimated that there was a 3 percent probability of a collision at the site in any given year. That’s the ninth-highest accident probability of any of Metro-North’s 44 rail crossings in New York and ranks higher than 90 percent of the state’s 2,675 crossings.

...

...Among commuter-rail crossings, the Islip Avenue crossing in Central Islip on Long Island has the highest probability of a collision at 17.4 percent per year. Compared with those crossings, Metro-North’s aren’t considered particularly risky by the model; the system’s riskiest New York crossing is on Jay Street in Katonah, also in Westchester County, with a collision probability of 4.3 percent. (The railroad has three higher-risk crossings in Connecticut.)

...

Ironically, Jay St. is one of the 2 electric territory outliers on the Harlem that aren't mere feet from a parkway entrance. And yeah, it is a top-priority one. The street corner right in front of Katonah Station is very built up with sightlines and queue backup potential very dicey. Brewster, the other non-parkway outlier, is also a little nutty with all the haphazard semi-official station parking up the hill on the dirt driveway...total blind corner at the crossing...such a narrow crossing that the only way for an entering SUV to pass an exiting SUV in to go *KA-THUNK* over the tracks with passenger-side wheels off the crossing rubber...and exactly 2 car lengths of space between tracks and busy Route 6 traffic light with merging traffic at the first car length from the small pay lot. That's one where the locals really gotta get real about what's the price of their God-given unalienable right to free hillside parking. Because that one truly is a "drop the jersey barriers and block that sucker off" case where they pay a little to string a driveway linking those two lonely houses to Hillside Terrace or County 36. But I bet if you proposed that it would get shot down in a nanosecond, because free parking. I don't think these communities are ready for a frank and sober discussion of the risks, and which mode carries the larger-by-far share of that risk.


Which is why NYDOT would be wise to attack the godawful design of those parkway intersections as primary order of business instead of letting the messaging get totally unhinged on another "TRAIN BAD" rant fanned by Rep. Liveshot down in D.C. and/or up in Albany. People are going to keep getting pulled out by the jaws of life at these same locations. It's just the next 49 times out of 50 the only Metro North involvement is going to be the PA announcer at GCT announcing that all trains running north of NWP are running late because of "police activity on the Taconic", Cuomo not making a site visit, Gildebrand not making a statement on C-SPAN, and nobody outside of a handful of Mt. Pleasant Daily Voice subscribers hearing about it in the news. And nobody will put 2 and 2 together, like they haven't put 2 and 2 together for the last half-century. The state-level transportation folks are gonna have to be the initiators on changes with their parkway and its interface with the local grid--asphalt way ahead of steel on the pecking order--because Selectman Pothole and the local voters certainly are not going to make the connection.

SwingMan wrote: Schumer and all the other political pigs are going to have a field day with this; In fact, they're probably busy right now making some BS speech about how grade crossings are dangerous and need to be outlawed.

And people wonder why the taxes and fares go up. While I think more safety in the right context is welcomed, things like this have and forever will happen, it is just going to happen. Sadly, in this case, the worst possible chain of events occurred leading to a very, in hindsight, avoidable accident. Even if the crossing was fully protected, the driver did not go around the gates, they were under them.

Several years ago, Yale sociologist Charles Perrow wrote Normal Accidents: Living with High-Risk Technologies, which posited that at some point the above attitude, that "things ... have and forever will happen," becomes a societal norm, that we accept that plane crashes, train accidents, automobile accidents, even nuclear accidents, have all become part of the acceptable risk we face, understanding that living with the risks inherent in such technology is the price of admission to our modern society.

On the other hand, agencies such as NHTSA, NTSB, & OSHA and organizations such as NYCOSH have shown that improvements can be made, often (not always) at very minimal cost.

Politically, the Democratic Party has taken a more progressive stance with respect to workplace safety, while the Republican Party has generally aligned itself with the concerns of businesses with respect to the costs involved.

Reductio ad absurdum arguments can be made on both sides:

• If air travel becomes so unsafe that nobody flies, the airlines have empty planes and go out of business, so the airlines' lobby has just put a lot of people out of business;

• Alternatively, if it becomes so exorbitantly expensive as to make all flying completely safe, nobody can afford to fly, the airlines have empty planes and go out of business, so the regulators have just put a lot of people out of business.

As a flight instructor I can solo a student in six hours, but there is not a lot of ability in a critical situation built into that student; on the other hand, I can solo a student in 20 hours, have him or her basically bullet-proof, but then how do I compete with the schools soloing their students in six hours? Students want to solo: it's a confidence builder, it's fun, it's an important boost to their self-esteem, and a quick solo is pretty-much standard, but low flight time is a risk factor as well. (Hint: I don't compete with the quick-solo schools, I tell my students that I will likely not solo them until they have about 20 hours, and don't even get me started on a 40-hour private pilot.)

Safety costs money: how much are we willing to spend?

But it is more complex than that: safety may not even be attainable. Can a nuclear power plant ever be made 100% safe? In the U.S., the government (i.e., the U.S. Navy) seems to be able to do it, but private industry does not seem to do so well.

What can be done, then, with third-rails and grade crossings?

FRA Web Accident Prediction System (WBAPS)

I'm attaching a document showing rail crossings in NY, Westchester Putnam and Dutchess from the above predictor. Initial observations: some of the rankings seem silly because the line (in this case the Beacon) is OOS.

Of the 44 results, 19 (highlighted in attached PDF) were non-Harlem that I could identify, being the Hudson or Beacon lines (the NH has zero crossings on the main line). That leaves 25. Please check me on this. None of those are in original electrified territory, leaving me to deduce that the NYC made a conscious decision to eliminate grade crossings in 3rd rail territory. I have no idea if this was ever a consideration for the then MNCR when they were doing the Upper Harlem electrification.

Of those 25 Harlem Line crossings, only 9 are in electrified territory. That leaves 16 on the Wassaic extension, in non-electrified territory. If you check the Hudson Line crossings, they'll also be north of CH in diesel territory, and there are only 3 (Garrison, Chelsea, and Peekskill).

The attachment includes crossing profiles and an accident history.

Before the tragic accident two nights ago, the only accident in the last 10 years in MNRR territory in NYS was at Dykeman's, upper Upper Harlem. It's also ranked #2 after Jay St.

9 crossings identified on Upper Harlem electric territoy:

-White Plains: Virginia Rd. (Rank: 3. Difficult to eliminate; major thoroughfare).
-Valhalla: Cleveland St (rank: 11; should be closed - nearby overhead bridge); Commerce St (rank: should be reconfigured; overpass possible?); Lakeview Av (rank: 7; difficult due to proximity of stone businesses; they'd have to be relo'd for a bridge)
-Hawthorne: Stevens (aka Gates of Heaven; rank: 4; difficult due to proximity of main cemetery office)
-Katonah: Jay St. (rank: 1. Impossible to eliminate/close. Right downtown. Quad gates?)
-Mt. Kisco: Green Ln. (rank: 6; is this Reader's Digest? If it is, people actually DRIVE onto the train tracks here because their GPS said so.)
-Chappaqua: Roaring Brook (rank: 10; actually, I think THIS is Reader's Digest; plenty of room for a bridge it looks like).
-Brewster: (Rank: 14. not sure what this road is, but if I have the crossing right, it's right by the train station. Unlikely closure/reconfigure candidate).

Very interesting comments docsteve. People do accept a certain level of risk, you have to. This is from a New York Times story about the reaction of riders recorded yesterday at North White Plains during the first morning's bus detours.

As commuters waited in the station or on the platform, they talked quietly about the crash. Several noted they had taken that train in the past, while others said they were glad they had not. Some worried about commuting delays for the next few days, but no one said the accident would make them give up their rail commutes.

“I’m a little shaken up, but there’s nothing we can do about it,” said Ms. Claire Meenagh, a Metro-North rider who lives in Somers, N.Y., and was up late watching news of the crash. “I thought it was a freak accident and it could happen to anybody.” “We have to get to work,” said Devin Smith, who also lives in Somers and works in Manhattan as an advertising sales representative. “It’s not like you don’t feel safe on the train. It’s just one of those freak accidents.”

Btw everybody's favorite punching bag, Sen. Charles Schumer said, in a statement released Tuesday night, that we "should wait until all the facts are in" before assigning blame. He noted that both the MTA and the NTSB would be conducting thorough investigations.

BenH wrote:Is that a section of the 3rd rail that this worker is cutting?! Note: Fair-use low-resolution image attached.

I saw that photo discussed on another site. I believe that is a section of the third rail that penetrated the two lead MU cars.

Tommy, while I would generally agree with you on budgeting priorities, the high-profile of MNRR's recent history, whether self-inflicted or not, may push some improvements through.

As I showed above, we're only talking about 9 crossings on the Upper Harlem below Southeast. Some, nothing can likely be done about without massive $$$ and inconvenience. Some can be closed relatively cheaply. Some will required some investment, but not extreme (e.g. the current crossing in question, Commerce).

I don't think it's insurmountable. We're not talking ESA dollars here. 9 crossings, some of which will/should be closed.

The most difficult will be the highway interchanges as F-Line noted, Commerce St one of them. And that one should just be a realignment of Commerce with better/quad gates. Virginia and Reader's Digest will be the two huge costs...

(This is a tragedy. Sympathy to ALL involved or touched by it.)

But:

On the CBS noon news, ( http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2015/02/05/ ... on-tracks/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ) Rob Astorino, Westchester County Exec. was quoted as saying that this might just be an incident where no one is at fault.

I live a mile from railroad tracks. I cannot believe how often I see cars or trucks pull onto the tracks even though they cannot clear the crossings because traffic is backed up. IF YOU CANNOT COMLETELY CLEAR THE TRACKS, DON'T ENTER THE CROSSING! EVER! (Even when you think a train ISN'T coming!!! Don't get caught on the tracks.)

That should be the message if Mr. Astorino wants to protect people--drivers, pedestrians, passengers and crews.

I would be interested in seeing what NTSB finds regarding what ignited the fire in the lead MU. I noted eyewitnesses said the SUV seemed to explode upon impact. Also a passenger on the train, riding in a car behind the lead pair, said he began to smell a strong odor of gasoline moments after the crash.

One issue the NTSB seems to be looking at is the materials used in the MU car interiors. Flammability, toxicity when burning, etc. One of the NTSB investigators mentioned that grade crossing accidents are relatively common but most don't result in the vehicle exploding like this one did. He asked, "What was different about this incident?" It will be interesting to see what they come up with. I wonder if in part it could have something to do with the design of BMW SUVs.

pretty sure that fuel and third rail do not make good partners, but I am sure NTSB will come to same conclusion and note the absence of third rail in most other crashes in US.

There's been many other instances where Harlem Line trains hit cars at grade crossing and there was no explosion. I can't think of another time it happened, can you? Fires yes, explosions and the lead car being set on fire like this one, no.

not every crash is same, depends where tank gets hit, depends how much fuel it contains etc etc there are no cookie cutter accidents.

I had read in the NBC report that the vehicle struck by the train was a Jeep Cherokee but in other reports I had read and heard it was a MERCEDES SUV - also there seems to have been several vehicles involved,but in other reports just the one vehicle was struck by the train

It would seem that the driver of the vehicle that was hit by the train IGNORED the flashing lights and the fact that the gates were coming down and it would seem that the driver of the Mercedes SUV tried to 'beat the gate' by going UNDER said gate (not around) presumably before the gate had come down completely - it may be that the SUV driver tried to stop BEFORE going under the gate but could not due to black ice or mech failure with the brakes

however,the A.I.R. (send me a personal msg for explanation) factor in general here in NY is very high and my money is on the 'beat the gate' scenario

also, as a general rule-of-thumb of mine,the inteligence of a NY (or NJ) driver is inversely proportional to the size and/or cost of the vehicle they are driving
therefore tractor-trailer truck drivers would be cognitively chalenged/sub human - think of the number of times a TT truck gets stuck under an overpass on the TSP or some other CARS ONLY parkway

and so someone driving a very expensive vehicle such as a Mercedes SUV would be most likely to try and 'beat the gate',whereas the driver of a Honda Civic would not

RE:
pnaw10 prediction: grade crossings will be eliminated

Initial (and also cheap) solution will be to simply wall-off streets with jersey barriers. Yes, the dead-ends will be inconvenient for awhile as people get used to
finding the next-closest overpass crossing, but I predict lawmakers will frame it as an extra few minutes out of the way being better than risking another grade crossing crash. Kinda like when some of the at-grade intersections on the Taconic were eliminated years ago, by placing a barrier over the center median. Not sure if any of those intersections were in Westchester but I know there were a handful in Dutchess County.

well.. there is another relatively cheap solution

I am sure in some photos I had seen showing an at grade crossing with gates,I have seen the gates with swinging rods that hang down when the gate is down - this would greatly dicourage the A.I.R.s from atempting to beat the gate

another somewhat more expensive solution,but still very very (very) cheap compared to modifying the ROW,would be retractable spikes like that used in parking garages to prevent people from leaving without paying - in this case they would act in reverse - normaly the spikes would be down and would come up when the gates go down

I had found online a company that makes security barriers - one product that is interesting is the low profile wedge barrier model no. 820
http://www.bb-armr.com/products/WedgeBarriers/820.htm like in the previous the barrier would go up when the gate came down

a non destructive version would be to use retractable bollards - again acting in reverse - normal DOWN gate down UP

however,I like the former first option best - this would be a MUCH beter deterant and IF someone disregarded the TIRES WILL BE PUNTURED BEYOND THIS POINT warning sign,the tires would flat and would stop the vehicle BEFORE getting onto the track(s)

actualy I may have read about something like the above for a RR crossing maybe in Europe somewhere?

DutchRailnut wrote:not every crash is same, depends where tank gets hit, depends how much fuel it contains etc etc there are no cookie cutter accidents.

Yes I understand that and I presume the NTSB investigator does too. What I was referring to is what ignited the fire inside the MU car. I've seen it speculated here and other places, I've even see railroaders speculating, that it was the still-energized third rail penetrating the carbody. It seems more likely to me it was the gasoline from the vehicle that was ignited by sparks as the SUV was pushed down the rails that started the fire inside the car. I said I will be interested in seeing what NTSB finds. As their investigator referred to, there have been many grade crossing collisions between vehicles and MU cars on Metro-North and the LIRR. You almost never see the kind of fire and damage you had in this one.

I find it hard to believe the third rail was still energized when it punched through the MU car but I guess it's possible. I don't think it's very likely though. I think we should wait and see what the NTSB comes up with. If that's okay with you.

More info on the driver here

NEW YORK (JTA) — The funeral for Ellen Brody, the mother of three killed in Tuesday’s deadly Metro-North train crash, will take place at 10 a.m. Friday at Chabad of the Rivertowns in Dobbs Ferry, NY.

The accident was the deadliest in Metro-North history. Brody, 49, and five rail passengers were killed when the train plowed into Brody’s Mercedes SUV at a railroad crossing in Valhalla. It’s not clear why Brody’s vehicle had stopped on the tracks. Brody, who lived in Scarsdale, was on her way back from her job at an Israeli-run jewelry store in Chappaqua.

The co-director of the Chabad center, Rabbi Benjy Silverman, remembered Brody as mindful, considerate and warm.

Brody’s family has been involved with the Chabad center since its inception 12 years ago, Silverman said. Brody’s three daughters, Danielle, Jules and Lexi, all went to the Chabad Hebrew school and had their bat mitzvahs there.

Tommy Meehan wrote:

DutchRailnut wrote:not every crash is same, depends where tank gets hit, depends how much fuel it contains etc etc there are no cookie cutter accidents.

Yes I understand that and I presume the NTSB investigator does too. What I was referring to is what ignited the fire inside the MU car. I've seen it speculated here and other places, I've even see railroaders speculating, that it was the still-energized third rail penetrating the carbody. It seems more likely to me it was the gasoline from the vehicle that was ignited by sparks as the SUV was pushed down the rails that started the fire inside the car. I said I will be interested in seeing what NTSB finds. As their investigator referred to, there have been many grade crossing collisions between vehicles and MU cars on Metro-North and the LIRR. You almost never see the kind of fire and damage you had in this one.

I find it hard to believe the third rail was still energized when it punched through the MU car but I guess it's possible. I don't think it's very likely though. I think we should wait and see what the NTSB comes up with. If that's okay with you.

My guess? We know the carbody was punctured by the third rail. We know the Mercedes was dragged several hundred feet down the tracks. Seems likely that as the vehicle was being dragged, gasoline was being sprayed all over the place, including into the car through the gashes caused by the broken rails. With all that metal hitting metal you wouldn't really need the third rail to be energized to get enough sparks to cause the gasoline to ignite.