Railroad Forums
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Wayside wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:30 pm I was under the impression that CN was out of the running for a KCS merger. Am I wrong about that? Or am I "wrong" about that?CN just wants divestiture of the old Gateway Western to be a condition of the merger. What I don't understand about this is does CN expect the STB to impose Gateway conditions on UP and BNSF at Kansas City as a result of a merger of which they are not a part of? If the STB doesn't impose such conditions how are they going to get anything from KC except Intermodal. Plus of course CN wants access to capacity at KCS's Intermodal facility. Are they willing to build their own capacity, or is their plan to reduce CPKC's ability to grow traffic their.
Billionaire investor William Ackman acquired a stake in Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. CP 0.08% as the railroad seeks regulatory approval for its proposed $27 billion merger with Kansas City Southern.Hindsight says he should have just stayed in; but then, that's not how these boys play the game (except Warren, whose holding period is "forever").
Mr. Ackman’s hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management disclosed in a regulatory filing that it owned roughly 2.8 million shares of Canadian Pacific as of Dec. 31.
The fund actually had exposure to many times that—about 14.8 million shares as of Monday, according to a person familiar with the matter. That figure would make Mr. Ackman one of the railway’s top 15 holders with a stake worth well over $1 billion based on the current share price.
CHICAGO — Metra officials said Canadian Pacific has failed to consider how its merger with Kansas City Southern might impact commuter rail service in Chicagoland and that if it’s approved without conditions it could result in a “1,200 percent” increase in passenger train delays.
That dramatic figure, measured by every 100 train miles on Metra, was outlined in a filing with the U.S. Surface Transportation Board recently. The filing comes as the federal regulator continues to consider the CP-KCS combination, which would be the largest railroad merger in a generation. Metra isn’t the only entity to raise concerns about the proposed merger in recent weeks: A number of community groups, politicians and other railroads have been critical of it. But few comments have been as dramatic as those filed by Metra.
In its filing — which revised a previous comment earlier this year — Metra said it appears CP did not take into account the number of passenger trains that run on its Milwaukee District line northwest of the city, assuming that all track capacity could be used for freights. Metra goes on to state that approving the merger with no conditions would result in “substantial and problematic” impacts on the region’s passengers.
Patrick Fruzzettidisclaimer: author does not, nor ever has, held licensure as an investment advisor
Managing Director, Rose Advisors (Hightower)
10-year pick: Canadian Pacific Railway (CP)
I like railroads because they’re a scarce asset—there’s only so much railway in North America. Canadian Pacific is a Class 1 railroad, and consolidation has diminished the number of Class 1 rails over the years. Canadian Pacific, which is in the U.S. and Canada, recently merged with Kansas City Southern, which is in the U.S. and Mexico. So, this is the only rail line that goes from Mexico through the U.S. all the way up to Canada.
I believe we’re in an era of deglobalization. And when you think about the beneficiaries of this shift, you look to places like Mexico. It’s an area where you can produce relatively cheaply for North America in several sectors. Grain, energy products, agriculture, hardgoods, automotive—it can all be shipped via rail. So this is an onshoring play. And in an inflationary environment, Canadian Pacific has a lot of pricing power, because there are only so many rails, and their costs are fixed. Whatever inflation they’re facing, they’re pricing above it, and that’s good for margins.
Operating ratios are an important metric for the railroad industry—the lower the better. Canadian Pacific’s operating ratio was in the high 50% range last year. By the second half, it will be in the mid-50% range. If it can continue to get that operating ratio down—and it will—that will be very beneficial to the valuation of the company over time. I like to buy companies that I think are trading at a significant discount to their future intrinsic value. And I think Canadian Pacific definitely is there.
