• Intermodal to Saint John

  • Discussion relating to the past and present operations of CPR. Official web site can be found here: CPR.CA.
Discussion relating to the past and present operations of CPR. Official web site can be found here: CPR.CA.

Moderators: Komachi, Ken V

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  by roberttosh
 
How much intermodal out of SJ is CP actually hauling these days? I don't see the manifest traffic paying the bills, especially once CSX gets access into the area. Perhaps CBR comes back with the high price of crude?
  by NHV 669
 
For those of us not living up that way, and/or for those without a Facebook account to track moves via the "Eastern CP" page, a camera has been added at the Greenville, ME depot.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmy_4kImagM
  by F74265A
 
At least in terms of ship traffic, I’m not seeing anything that indicates that Saint John is picking up traffic from other clogged ports
  by NHV 669
 
Yesterday's 142 was a mere 16 cars, 251 was around 75, with 40+ wells with a combination of single and double stack.
  by NHV 669
 
By my count, today's 142 had 37 manifest cars, 30 empty wells, and 6 loaded wells passing through Greenville at 18:10
  by roberttosh
 
I just don't see where or how CP is ever going to generate much more carload freight and what little they have is eventually going to be susceptible to diversion to CSX. I also don't ever envision the container traffic amounting to the big volumes that some have projected. That leaves CBR, Potash and maybe Ethanol as their main development targets. It will likely remain a one daily train in each direction railroad for the foreseeable future.
  by NHV 669
 
46 loaded wells last night, 39 manifest on 251.
  by F74265A
 
Auto import/export potential via ship as well
Plus the local auto distribution of vehicles brought in by train. Cp had some of that already but no idea if they have retained that business
  by roberttosh
 
There is definitely the domestic Maritimes auto traffic, but keep in mind that the combined population of NS & NB is only about 1.6 million people, so it is never going to be a needle mover, like say the E Brookfield facility on CSX which caters to over 10 million people. In terms of import/export, I'm not seeing the land available at the Port of St J where they could construct anything more than a fraction of the size of what CN has over at Dartmouth, NS. Unlike Pan Am, whose got the benefit of directly serving the 4 big paper/pulp mills, LPG terminals, Feed mills, etc, CP really doesn't have much in the way of captive traffic other than the LPG/chemicals moving to the Bangor/Searsport area. There's next to nothing for on-line customers between Brownville Jct and the Canadian border and I don't see that changing any time soon.
  by NHV 669
 
38 manifest, 58 empty wells on today's 142 clearing Greenville at 14:09
  by F74265A
 
Don’t forget that Irving recently got approval for a big intermodal expansion project at and near the nbsr yard by dever road
  by NHV 669
 
Roughly 30 manifest (the camera cut out 6-7 seconds as the power passed), looked like a single auto rack, and 74 wells mixed with singles and doubles passing Greenville on 251 at 22:04
  by CN9634
 
roberttosh wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:59 pm I just don't see where or how CP is ever going to generate much more carload freight and what little they have is eventually going to be susceptible to diversion to CSX. I also don't ever envision the container traffic amounting to the big volumes that some have projected. That leaves CBR, Potash and maybe Ethanol as their main development targets. It will likely remain a one daily train in each direction railroad for the foreseeable future.
CP is going to add a pair of auto/intermodal trains in 2022. It was supposed to happen earlier but 1.) you have the auto chip shortage which has killed that traffic mostly. CP lined up an import deal to backhaul the empty racks, but again manufacturing of vehicles is way off. And 2.) Maersk has done some tests on a transatlantic call to replace Halifax, which would give enough volumes with the Hapag for the daily dedicated jobs. Not sure the delay on that or if it’s still on the books but I’m being told one more steamship line and the autos bouncing back (remember we’ve seen at times 20-30 racks per train before the shortage). Once Lancaster Logistics is done and the dedicated train you’ll see Canadian Tire domestic business. They’ve run two trials so far, just need a dedicated service for them to move forward.

End of the day, you’ve got a Class I who is only 16 months into completely rebuilding a mostly neglected plant for 25 years and already has added new traffic. MMA ran the Moosehead 3 days a week, CMQ ran 5 days with those Tuesday trains being fairly small, also running marginal profit logs filling out the trains often. There are still tons of opportunities in development, not just the intermodal and autos, but more manifest traffic. CSX is years away from offering competitive service via Keag from their takeover… you think CP had a challenge rebuilding CSX is basically doing a full ground up new build.
  by roberttosh
 
No matter how poor the infrastructure may be, it doesn't matter. If CSX can single line business at a major rate discount then that's the way it's going to go and you can take that to the bank. They will not have to wait until the line is rebuilt. Furthermore, from the reports that I've seen, CP is averaging only @ 30 manifest cars per day, and that's with heavy LPG shipments and before CSX cleans their clock on the Irving business. That's not exactly a lot of business for a transcontinental main line that they paid a couple hundred million for.
  by CN9634
 
CP made their strategy pretty clear and have gone all in. Give it some time, the bigger picture is a lot of steamship lines want an alternative to CN in eastern Canada (Canada doesn’t charge nearly as many fees as US ports). The CP mainline is still several miles shorter heading west, it’s actually basically a straight line. CSX from Worcester to Chicago is a straight line too, but headed up into Maine to Keag not so much. Also CP strikes Upper Midwest, KC, and Canada major metros… next year they’ll be landing in NOLA, Texas and Mexico City. Imagine that, a direct rail line from Maine to freakin Mexico City. That unlocks a lot of opportunities CSX will never be able to touch. Also FYI there is a large print business in MX and Maines largest trading partner is… Canada). Ever wonder why the MSC Gulf Bridge starts in Montreal, hits Saint John, hits Boston and ultimately ends up in Veracruz? Because there is trade there already.

When’s the last time you actually were out in the Keag line? CSX has already said it’ll be 5 years before that line is up to anything reasonable. Also, look at the Ayer bottlenecks… two train pairs to start limited to 9000’, one will be the AYPO/POAY and the other will be the Rigby Intermodal. After that it becomes more complicated
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