How wind can power the world's mass transit

Malawi suffers blackouts as drought exposes 98% reliance on hydro power

This is one of the reasons why wind, solar and geothermal make an important contributions in terms of renewables. The once reliable hydroelectric power is now suffering from global warming and climate change. Cape Town is suffering previously unheard of water shortages. Kenya has had an eighteen month drought - we had some rain recently but it's by no means certain that the drought is ended. When I first came to Kenya forty years ago you could almost set your watch by the two rainy seasons, but no longer.

johnthefireman wrote:Malawi suffers blackouts as drought exposes 98% reliance on hydro power

This is one of the reasons why wind, solar and geothermal make an important contributions in terms of renewables. The once reliable hydroelectric power is now suffering from global warming and climate change. Cape Town is suffering previously unheard of water shortages. Kenya has had an eighteen month drought - we had some rain recently but it's by no means certain that the drought is ended. When I first came to Kenya forty years ago you could almost set your watch by the two rainy seasons, but no longer.

How is the Lake Victoria system behaving? Is the Nile output diminishing? The Nile outlet could, if the water supply holds up, provide very large sources of energy, without adding any CO2 to the atmosphere. I can remember how the Kenya climate behaved in the 1970s and onwards. The arrival of the rainy seasons was very predictable.

Mod note :Reference to President Trump removed . Behave George.

I thought we were going to dampen the "political", non-railway inputs. Sam

I don't have any concrete data on the Nile system and Lake Victoria. The lake is certainly suffering from pollution, over-fishing and of course the perennial problem of the water hyacinth, but I'm not sure whether water levels have dropped.

The new Ethiopian hydroelectric installations are certainly causing problems elsewhere, both downstream on the Nile and in Kenya's Lake Turkana, which is already shrinking and there are fears it will dry up completely.

As you are probably aware the flow of Nile water is governed by the 1929 and 1959 agreements, which are mainly aimed at protecting Egypt's water supply. Egypt is already using more than its share (as neither Sudan nor South Sudan are yet able to make use of their full share) and still needs more due to its population growth and its development plans. Upstream countries such as Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania are all very close to breaching the agreement as they need to extract more water for their own growing populations and their own development plans. South Sudan is keen to build a dam on the Nile, and when peace eventually comes to the country, they will probably also need to extract more water, so both they and Sudan will eventually begin to use their full share, leaving Egypt short of water. Egypt has made it clear in the past that they would go to war to protect their water supply (anybody who has been to Egypt will understand how and why they are so dependent on the Nile).

Semaphore Sam wrote:I thought we were going to dampen the "political", non-railway inputs. Sam

My apologies, Sam, if I have gone off topic in that direction. I felt that my posts on solar and wind were directly related to railways, and while the drought and hydroelectric thing was not directly railway related, I felt it was relevant in terms of renewables in general. Mea culpa.

Semaphore Sam wrote:I thought we were going to dampen the "political", non-railway inputs. Sam

Thanks for your gentle reminder , Sam. I think I have removed the offending part of the post. Lets keep our opinions of various world leaders and politicans off here.

The notion that wind and/or solar can replace hydroelectric generation is a fantasy. And not even a remotely realistic one.

Mr. Spooner of the Ffestiniog Railway figured this out years ago. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLwJlDUnhBY

MCL1981 wrote:The notion that wind and/or solar can replace hydroelectric generation is a fantasy. And not even a remotely realistic one.

With all due respect, what do you suggest should replace hydroelectric in countries which are now suffering long-term droughts and conflicts over water? Hydroelectric used to be touted as a virtually problem-free and sustainable method of generating electricity, but I think my recent posts about Africa show that it is anything but. Maybe you are not fully aware of the amount of both solar and wind generation which is being installed in some quite poor and remote but nevertheless very windy and sunny places in the world? Just a few hundred metres from my house there's a team of observers counting raptors as part of a six-month ecological assessment in advance of a huge project to build a long chain of wind turbines along the edge of the Great Rift Valley, where we have wind pretty much 100% of the time, and really strong winds probably more than 50%. New pylons and power lines are already being built to link these and the new geothermal projects to the national grid. Advances in efficiency of these technologies are happening all the time. Taken along with other renewables, the world of electricity generation is changing, just as the climate is. In a continent such as Africa which currently has very few electric railways, it is unthinkable (or, to use your words, it's "not even remotely realistic") to suppose that renewable energy sources will not play a major role in powering some of the new railways which are currently being built or planned here.

I think the signs are that in the long run Kenya will get its energy from a combination of the various renewable sources you have outlined. In a tropical situation the wind resource is wholly predictable and likely to contribute a major proportion of power. Water is unfortunately less predictable as droughts under the new climate conditions are becoming commoner and so the resource is less reliable. Previously in the 1960s and 70s water could have been relied on but if the climate change is reducing rainfall water power may become less reliable. And of course I will always support more biomass as a reliable source of energy at least for small farmers. The spread of biogas is very encouraging. The geological heat, typical of many parts of the Rift Valley, will be a very important power source.

All of these can power an electrified railway which will not emit any CO2. And I would hope the railway could carry the bulk of freight along its route - much larger than at present. Road transport energised by non-oil sources will also be important

What do I suggest replace hydroelectric generation? Something of equal or better capacity and of equal or better reliability and consistency. You know, something that doesn't stop generating power when the sun sets or when it's cloudy. Or something that doesn't stop when the wind dies down, or require a million acres of turbines to meet the demand.

Again with all due respect, what exactly is this "Something of equal or better capacity and of equal or better reliability and consistency"? But actually it's not a very high bar that you are setting, as in drought-ridden countries hydroelectric power has proved to have very low capacity, reliability and consistency. It also has massive negative consequences environmentally and socially, and in the modern world is also a potential conflict trigger. So actually it won't be too difficult to find something which is of equal or better capacity, reliability and consistency. Wind, solar, biomass and geothermal spring to mind immediately.

something that doesn't stop when the wind dies down

I wonder if you've ever lived on the edge of Africa's Great Rift Valley? Or for that matter a few kilometres offshore in Europe's North Sea? The wind doesn't really tend to die down much.

a million acres of turbines

A million acres of wind turbines is probably cheaper than a good sized nuclear power station, for example, particularly if said power station explodes or melts down. Many wind farms are now situated offshore where space is not really an issue, or on high hills and ridges where the land is not very productive for other purposes.

I think, ultimately, neither coal, nor oil, nor wind, nor nuclear, solar panels, nor any of the other "renewable" or "non-renewable" sources will provide the best solution(s)...Mr. Nikola Tesla's ideas, very radical, have not been adequately followed up. His 19th and 20th century visions could make the above energy sources obsolete. Railways would be a major beneficiary, among many others.

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