F-line to Dudley via Park wrote:Depends on whether the T gets involved. If they start subtly intimating that it would be real nice if there were no more freight east of Framingham or crossing through BET off the Grand Junction deals can be made to subcontract out to PAR for a Worcester delivery and keep the goods captive to CSX. Because it is, after all, small potatoes.
You've missed the point. It's small potatoes in terms of operational size or value for CSX, but, not necessarily when it comes to CSX's commercial interests, both for this case and possibly in the larger picture, too. Their commercial franchise and rights to run freight into Everett has value. I have a sneaking suspicion that it would take a lot more than an "intimation" for CSX to give up those rights (formally or informally) for what may not be a good and risk-less deal for them. CSX is a proven tough negotiator: just look at what they got for the most-recent line sales in Massachusetts, so what will the MBTA or the Commonwealth have to offer as a quid pro quo? Why wouldn't CSX simply require the MBTA to deal with their protected rights in any case? And, really, will 1 roundtrip local running east of Framingham now or ever become that big of a deal for the MBTA? CSX can run at night and with Cambridge opposition and Tim Murray sidelined what's the chance of it becoming critical that CSX be off the Grand Jct. 24/7?
Green Line Extension construction would probably be the time to watch, because building the Union Sq. branch is going to make a temporary mess out of the Fitchburg/Grand Junction diamond. And the GLX maintenance facility construction coming a few years later is going to make a royal mess of the Valley Track while the build is ongoing.
These are not events that would, in and of themselves, force a strategic move by CSX. They would be dealt with in the very same way the closing of the bridge over the Charles was handled: by boilerplate reciprocal agreement between carriers. How do you know PAR wouldn't want a juicier agreement in any number of terms less-favorable to CSX outside a detour situation?
Plus I very much doubt Houghton Chemical is going to stay in its current location much longer. Harvard and the Boston Redevelopment Authority want that parcel behind the Doubletree put to more upscale commercial use than it is now, so it's only a matter of time before they get a relocation offer they can't refuse out to the 'burbs somewhere with equivalent rail access. That weekly delivery is the only thing CSX has to serve on this local that PAR can't.
I don't get the sense that not having Houghton is a game-changer for CSX's service to Everett. Quite possibly even a benefit in the operation of that local. And, don't mistake CSX's exit from Beacon Park as some sort of scorched-earth policy to exit or put at-risk their franchise east of Framingham.
So, when you work down through this, unless there's a big ace-in-the-hole for CSX which would motivate them, I wouldn't bet that they'll cede their Everett traffic to PAR.