CSX Acquisition of Pan Am Railways

Apologies, I should have stated via the SLR alone, which was my thought process writing that comment. That line is more or less OOS south of Danville, and you're still talking an overnight run that is better served by extending the existing Vermonter. And you're adding at least another pair of trainsets to the existing mix.

Where would you stop between those points, if at all? I just don't see any of these suggestions having close to the ridership of making them remotely feasible in the first place. Maine and MA aren't even close on population density.

Agree there is no market to support portland-Montreal svc and that slr south of Danville is moribund plus the bridge into portland over casco bay has been at least partially removed

Boston-Montreal perhaps. But without rebuilding the Northern mainline (proposed some years back as part of a high speed corridor) the route would be either via the B&A to Springfield or the Fitchburg/PAS to greenfield and then north. Both are indirect

During the LePage administration there was a study done regarding Portland-Montreal service, and it estimated that it would literally take a billion dollars of capital investment to make it happen.

However, I could see a return of Portland-Bethel service in the winter (revival of the ski train) if Sunday River wanted to invest in it as they did in the 90's. This time the Downeaster would actually be in service to feed patrons to it.

Portland-Bangor of course presents the question of Back Road (current PAR line) vs Lower Road (Brunswick-Waterville via Augusta). The Lower Road presents more challenges due to the repair work needed to an inactive line, but it directly serves the State House (foot of Capitol Park) and downtown Augusta, which seems to me to be a more desirable destination than Lewiston-Auburn, which would likely serve much more as a traffic source than a destination for others.

newpylong wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:58 am This is where you ask CP if PAS is so valuable to you why don't you ship more over it or buy it? Their tonnage is paltry. All they are doing is arguing about someone's else's traffic.

Spot on. CPRS needs to back off, it will just incite CSXT to retaliate and bog down the CP-KCS merger with conditions.
CPRS paid 10 time for a railroad (CMQ) that they casted off 25+ years ago. They KNOW that CSX is gunning for the Saint John traffic down the southeast since it will move on all CSXT route from Saint John. It is not CSX problem that CP overpaid for track in Maine they used to own outright.

Plus with the Hoosac Tunnel, NOBODY should guarantee about maintaining any standards since that thing could collapse by an act of nature at any time. 148 years and counting, but we do get earthquakes in New England, however infrequent.

I think CP knows they're in big trouble in Maine and is just using the PAS argument as a last ditch effort to delay things, since they know that the PAR acquisition itself is not anti-competitive and will in fact create MUCH more competition for them. You heard today about the big new LPG terminal going in at Waterville and that will only be the start of CSX's efforts to siphon off LPG from CP, who now has a real stranglehold on that traffic in the central part of the state. CSX can move gallons from the Marcellus into Maine more economically than CP can form its origins and you can be assured that they are going to take full advantage of that.

CPRS paid 10 time for a railroad (CMQ) that they casted off 25+ years ago.

That implies CP actually sold their lines for to Irving and Iron Road in 1995/1996 for $10M... is that accurate? I can't recall. Not quite apples and oranges comparison considering they only bought back Brownville Jct - west, but got the old BAR south in the deal.

I’m curious how much traffic from Maine CP hauls down the D&H? Would CSX be able to siphon some off the D&H as well with this acquisition And route it through Maine instead? Makes me wonder how viable the D&H will be after? CP‘s original route into New England was a Newport Vt -Gateway, they never used to deal with the Hoosac tunnel, which is not in good shape, interesting times, probably in the end won’t mean much for the Vermont lines anyway… I swear that they are cursed. At least the conn river anyway.

The D&H is plenty viable as it is NS's gateway to Canada in the East and CNs gateway to Southern New England and point beyond. Both run trains on it over CP. Then there is the Albany traffic which has grown substantially.

The D&H will lose any ME & NB traffic moving to/from CSX, which is considerable, but as Newpy pointed out, there's still enough left for it to remain viable. It's their line across Maine that is going to take the bigger hit.

roberttosh wrote:You heard today about the big new LPG terminal going in at Waterville and that will only be the start of CSX's efforts to siphon off LPG from CP, who now has a real stranglehold on that traffic in the central part of the state. CSX can move gallons from the Marcellus into Maine more economically than CP can form its origins and you can be assured that they are going to take full advantage of that.

What’s this about a new LPG terminal in Waterville? Was this discussed in the hearing itself? Very interesting development…

I’m really curious to fast forward two or three (or ten) years, to see just what CSX can do with this set of assets.

Yes, it was discussed during the hearing by Fabian oil.

roberttosh wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 7:56 pm The D&H will lose any ME & NB traffic moving to/from CSX, which is considerable, but as Newpy pointed out, there's still enough left for it to remain viable. It's their line across Maine that is going to take the bigger hit.

CP's growth focus isn't on the D&H lane out of SJ... surely that's been bonus traffic but in reality, its a really small routing that wouldn't be a reason to buy the CMQ. A lot bigger things at play and they're still in early innings... wait to see the Port expansion wraps up in one year.

CSX's takeover of the PAR system will not effect CP's high-profile intermodal and auto business, but it is most definitely going to effect their manifest traffic substantially.

Listening to the CP presentation, they did admit looking at VT options, one of the reasons being weight limits on some routes, inefficiency on others, so they are or we’re looking. I can tell you first hand that it will take a lot less $ to get the pompy up to 286 then you would think. LOTS of maintenance has been done in the past few years that does not get mentioned. The state of VT is well on their way to that goal. Crystal Ball? Absolutely not, but if sale goes through, they might look differently or not, but you can logistically get a through freight Farnham to East Deerfield or Palmer in 10-12hrs. You can’t with the other routes.

roberttosh wrote:Yes, it was discussed during the hearing by Fabian oil.

It shouldn't have that much of an impact on the LPG going CP. Fabian has been buying from terminals in Auburn and Hermon for several years, which requires them to truck it to a tank farm so it can be distributed in the central Maine area. It is a smart move on Fabian's part, since there isn't a terminal between Hermon and Auburn, not to mention the fact that they will likely be able to sell fuel off to smaller owner/operator companies.