CSX Acquisition of Pan Am Railways

GTIKING wrote: ↑Sun Oct 31, 2021 10:06 am CSX didn't buy ST just to go after 25mph running with 30 car trains xD. The mills are not a stable long term investment.

GTIKING wrote: ↑Sun Oct 31, 2021 2:58 pm I'm not spoon feeding this to you guys anymore. Put your ear to the ground and do your homework. Look at the bigger picture.

I think most of us here are on-board that CSX sees more than just the status quo. They've seen the traffic grow via the Worcester interchange, they know what's up and what the potential is. But this is a long-term play, and CSX even admits this in their own filing. In case you need it, here's a link to the updated July 1st, 2021 filing - a 1262 page document which has information straight from the source.

Filing page 334 (PDF 340) wrote:CSXT expects to increase the maximum speed limit to 25 mph on this line segment, improving transit time on this line segment from 660 minutes to 264 minutes.

Filing page 346 (PDF 352) wrote:In particular, CSXT plans to restore the PAR System mainline track conditions from FRA Class 1 (10 mph maximum speed) to FRA Class 2 (25 mph maximum speed) track standards. CSXT expects this work to start soon after the Proposed Transaction is consummated (pending weather and resource deployment) and to complete this work within approximately five years....
...CSXT plans to systematically upgrade the remaining PAR System freight mainline track conditions via... replacement of jointed rail with welded rail.

So yes, 25mph for Maine within 5 years after the completion of the transaction. Sure they're going after more business, but that will have to grow quite a bit to eat up the capacity covered by just the the increase from 10mph to a solid 25mph.

By the way, the filing made no mention of TCS and they are only going to install 1 type of PTC, there is no reason to install 2. MBTA has already taken care of their territory.

The two PTC types were mentioned in the early filings. A educated take on tnis would be to keep operations fluid for CSXT in the event one system goes down. As we know PTC has been very problematic with bugs. Just ask NS

PTC is extremely expensive. No one installs two versions on either the wayside or locomotives unless required by a host railroad (when the host railroad's implementation differs from the "guest").

Chances are they won't even need to install PTC at all east of Amtrak territory in Maine.

GTIKING wrote: ↑Mon Nov 15, 2021 10:32 am The two PTC types were mentioned in the early filings. A educated take on tnis would be to keep operations fluid for CSXT in the event one system goes down. As we know PTC has been very problematic with bugs. Just ask NS

Mention vs saying they are installing are different things. CSX's locomotives operating in MBTA territory will need to be compatible with MBTA's PTC system (CSX and Pan Am already have compatible locos, MBTA runs the same system Amtrak does - ACSES), and they will likely install their own PTC system (I-ETMS used by all the Class Is) over whatever other track it's needed for, which will be compatible with the rest of their locomotive fleet. As newpy said that probably won't extended beyond Downeaster territory in Maine.

Sigh. The filings aren't a final indicator or set in stone master plan of how things will be. Leaning on them as a means of predicting the end all is silly. CSX doesn't have to list out their full game plan in these filings and they are keeping their cards very close. Again, look at the rest of the RR, is it dumpy 25mph running? No. The ex MEC will be upgraded to 25 as a starting point and will be steadily upgraded as CSX gets it's other projects ready. You don't move time sensitive contracts/premium service at 25mph.
Look how bad TV95/96 was.

Nobody submits data in a filing they're not ready committed to following thru on, and failing to follow thru in the past has caused agencies and boards to haul those companies in for hearings....

Sent from my SM-G981U using Tapatalk

GTIKING, not sure you're aware but outside of the area that passenger entities pay to maintain higher speeds the rest of the railroad is basically 25mph or 10mph. Without the Downeaster the Plaistow to Royal Jct would likely be 25mph and the Brunswick Branch 10mph. The amount of work to get the railroad to a solid 25mph end-to-end is extensive and it's going to take time. CSX even says "approximately 5 years" so they aren't locked into a date.

It would be great to see trains "zooming" across the border and through New England, but if that is to happen it's going to take some time and there will be a lot of steps along the way, including the ones CSX already put in writing to the STB. I'd love to have the crystal ball to agree with you, but I've seen far too much unexpected change in my time in the industry to make a call on something that won't be even within striking distance until at least 2027 or 2028.

So I'm not "predicting the end" by saying 25mph in the next 5 years (which is what CSX is saying), nor am I slamming the door on eventual 40mph operation (in 2030? 2040? 2050?). I'm saying it's hard to predict more than 5 years out in the industry with the certainty you seem to have. But I honestly don't think CSX knows right now what the answer is beyond 25mph until they run it for a bit and see what traffic is like at that point. A reliable 25mph is a drastic improvement over the current spotty 25 or 10 with mediocre engines, and there is a point of diminishing returns on capital upgrades. I'm sure they have some high-level plans, but it's wasteful to burn resources on more than that right now.

I think Waterville west could potentially be 40 MPH in the not too distant future, but like others have pointed out, there's really not a whole lot to gain by going to 40 MPH East of Waterville to Keag as there just isn't that much of a time savings over that short of a distance to justify the expense. Plus, unless the CBR comes back, you're probably just talking about nothing more than one big train a day East of Waterville for the foreseeable future.

I've been hearing recently about some yard and operation consolidation plans in the Boston area, with ongoing discussions between CSX and the MBTA. Without giving out too many specifics, it sounds like CSX doesn't want to support all the yards in the area, especially those in sorry state of affairs.

When you think about it, CSX will have yards in Framingham, Worcester, Ayer(or is that B&E?), Lowell (if you call it a yard), Nashua, and Lawrence all surrounding Boston. It sounds like the plan is to have a South side and North side yard as primary base of locals for Boston traffic. I've also heard rumor of running traffic via Grand Jct from south/north just for the local traffic. Would make sense to me given the published bottlenecks that Ayer will present, and CSX' looking to add a train pair pretty quickly off the bat.

This would make sense. I wonder what CSX would do with the freight tracks in the terminal. I doubt they would need to use yard 21 since CSX is all about "do it all with one train crew" and there is no need to store cars. And then also I wonder if CSX would regularly use the yard 10 connection at Mystic Junction on the New Hampshire Route to bring trains right to FX. https://railroad.net/mbta-yard-10-nhr-c ... 73227.html

But the Grand Junction would limit things to C Plate eliminating reefers and larger boxcars. Also the new Yard 10 lead does not allow easy quick access to Everett/Chelsea. Wonder what they would consider a "South side" yard?

My thoughts:

I do not think you're going to see major operational changes with regard to switching on day 1. I think they have done their homework and know what they are getting into but will take some time to get their feet wet and decide what is working and what isn't.

As for the yard question itself, it will not resolve itself until the physical plant is improved. Pan Am operates so many perceived secondary yards because they cannot effectively serve their customers from the larger ones. That said, just because CSX is a Class I that adheres to PSR, it does not mean they are going to eliminate all of these switching locations. Downsize, perhaps, but not eliminate. Pan Am has done a good job of downsizing as it is, there isn't much left. That said, one of the core tenants of PSR is to block your traffic closest to its origination if at all possible. So in reality, they are relying on secondary yards more, and have consolidated the larger yards.

I do not think that they can efficiently serve the "North Side" traffic from Framingham via the Grand Junction. Dealing with the shiny trains and the junction itself (FRA exempt class, clearance restrictions, etc) may prove to be more hassle than its worth. There is a reason after all that they handed that traffic over to Pan Am to begin with.

The other issue with Pan Am is it really doesn't have much of a yard presence left where it would be most useful. CSX will not have access to Ayer except for minimal interchange. Lowell has 2 setoff tracks left, and Lawrence is way up in the middle of nowhere. Nashua is only good for NH.

Ideally I think reinstalling some of the old Bleachery tracks in Lowell along the NH Division/Lowell line is probably the best location all things considered, and the T owns the land. Many are still there in the weeds. However, as they say when pigs fly...

My best guess is they rip out half of Lawrence and Nashua and rebuild what is left so that they stop going on the ground and can switch at 10 MPH. Those areas are fairly geographically seperated as the railroad goes. I suspect they will continue to use Yard 21 as it's all they have left down there.

Just my two cents.

And for more use of the Bleachery the T gets a bigger chunk of Readville is my guess

The T's Readville yard is not connected to or even close to the CSX Readville yard. Unless you know something I don't that's in the works.

Lowell would clearly be more centrally located, but I just don't know if it would ever be able to get rebuilt or redesigned to the point where it could efficiently handle classification work for both Eastern MA and NH, block swapping, etc like Lawrence can. Plus Lawrence has long switching leads on both sides which I don't think Lowell would ever be able to duplicate. Lastly, not sure how CSX is going to handle Dover/Portsmouth business going forward, but could see that traffic being handled at Lawrence vs being dragged all the way to Portland.