mkittredge wrote: ↑Wed Nov 20, 2019 8:26 pm
To CN9634: I did not say I believed it. You did not have to bite my head off.
The reason rumors like this have legs is because people spread them.... so that's why I posted as I did.
Back to reality (wait is this for real?). I suspect CP has some business lined up. If you look at their investor calls the last few periods, including their large annual presentation, their model is build to fit the needs of the business and customers. My understanding is Searsport is a large piece of this puzzle, which given the Yard was just rebuilt, the crane and port infrastructure is in good shape, and it is very underutilized, I wouldn't be surprised if some port moves come almost immediately in the near term.
The auto contract that CP won back starts in 2020, although it isn't set to reach prime until Summer 2020, but I wonder if there is export opportunity for autos as part of this?
Also-- Potash. Look at the Canadian Interswitching rules and the Windsor - Quebec corridor clause in particular. Back in 2001, MMA received a 111-car Potash train from Canpotex to go to Saint John, however NBSR refused it because MMA would not guarantee insurance on the freight over their line. Then kick in the new interswitching rules and that possibililty was off the table.... but now, CP can feasibly move the nearest interchange out of the Windsor-Quebec corridor. Canpotex already applied for an interswitching judgement against CN into Saint John in 2018, which was ruled down due to this clause.... so now I suspect they re-apply and are granted the action, and you'll see a 50/50 split of Potash going CN/CP into Saint John.
Last item-- all the mill investment in Maine. Effectively you create a direct ST interchange at NMJ, instead of a ST-PAS routing. Now all the paper and pulp carloads can route around PAS, or CSX, or NS, to reach the midwest. Heck, you can see ST-CP-BNSF/UP routings come out of the woodwork and really put a beating on the PAS gateway traffic. All the propane traffic in Maine on ST/CMQ/NBSR/SLR? That could get locked up too. I think there is a lot of business here to be had. Ethanol to Searsport? why not. It comes in by rail to NYC and is sent by ship to Searsport. Anything is possible now my friends.