Brightline Orlando (MCO) and Disney Extension - PHASE 2

Some local news:

https://www.disneyfoodblog.com/2021/07/ ... efinitely/

Over the past few months, we’ve taken a look at one BIG milestone the train hit, a peek at its progress from the sky, and even news about Universal plan to push for an airport train connection. Recently, we got a big update as to where the plans for this train from the airport to Disney World stand.

Previously, we shared that Brightline was considering various routes from the airport to the Disney World station. At the time, 2 main routes appeared to be under consideration. One route would piggyback on State Road 417 through Hunters Creek. The other would go along State Road 528 to International Drive.

The 417 route, which is the one Brightline prefers, has been estimated to cost $1.03 billion. The SR 528 route, on the other hand, was previously estimated to cost $2.1 billion. This SR 528 route would go along I-Drive, a massive area with tourist attractions.

In April we shared that Universal Orlando Resort, the I-Drive business chamber of commerce, and more may push for this route that goes to I-Drive. Now, we’ve got an update as to what’s going on with the potential routes Brightline has been considering.

Interesting... I'm normally not a fan of NIMBY intervention but in this case it's stopping Disney from pulling a fast one that's ultimately not in the best interests of the railroad or future viability and ridership.

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Some more, potentially conflicting local news...

https://www.wesh.com/article/brightline ... l/37081637

ORLANDO, Fla. —
The planned Brightline expansion between Orlando International Airport and Tampa has been approved.

The Central Florida Expressway Authority Board cleared the way for Brightline to study a high-speed rail alignment along this corridor.

The new 17-mile-long path would connect the Brightline station at MCO to the I-4 corridor.

Looking at the maps in this article it appears that if they use the northern route it might be easier to construct a straight-shot pull-through station while the southern route will require a reverse move as mentioned in an above post.

https://www.disneyfoodblog.com/2021/04/ ... t-we-know/

Here is a more detailed report:

https://www.railwayage.com/wp-content/u ... ents-4.pdf

(I read part of the report). No way brightline is going to pay $2B when they can pay $1B. Unless the southern route has unacceptable impacts, (wetlands, property impairments, etc) they should be allowed to go ahead, If other parties want the northern route and want to kick in the extra $1B then maybe.

How long will each route take for trains? Southern route appears slower ?

west point wrote: ↑Sat Jul 31, 2021 7:36 pm How long will each route take for trains? Southern route appears slower ?

I do not think the link discussed train operations much, it discussed mostly routing and construction costs.
Neve-the-less, the difference in distances between the two routes was around a tenth of a mile. I would suggest trains making an extra station stop at Orange County Convention Center would slow the trains more on the way to Disney World.
At 60 mph average speed, a tenth of a mile is 6 seconds, at 30 mph a tenth of a mile is 12 seconds, at 15 mph a tenth of a mile is 30 seconds. I do not think a train slowing down for a station stop with many passengers alighting and boarding will take lass than a minute to do, more likely two minutes would be lost at such a stop vs not stopping at all at an intermediate station.
.

I was looking more of time saved for trains that did not stop. Airport to Tampa non stops, one stop at Disney , and all stops as well.

I'd think that a station by the convention. center would be a lot more useful for people throughout the Orlando area inclined to catch a train to Tampa. It's at least a 15 mile backtrack on a 80 mile trip to go to the airport.

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eolesen wrote: ↑Sun Aug 01, 2021 8:48 pm I'd think that a station by the convention. center would be a lot more useful for people throughout the Orlando area inclined to catch a train to Tampa. It's at least a 15 mile backtrack on a 80 mile trip to go to the airport.

Will you be willing to pay twice the fare for the train ticket to Tampa from Orlando's airport because it will cost the train operator Brightline twice as much to redirect via the convention center. Twice as much! So a $25 fare could turns into a $50 fare to balance the books.
How many families of four on vacation are going to spend an additional $100 for a 17 miles long train ride to Disney World from the airport? And another $100 for the return trip to the airport?

Not suggesting it will be twice as much, but that it could be twice as much. Were talking about the convention center route costing $2 Billion to build vs $1 Billion to build with the more direct route.
How many $25 fares will it take to pay off that additional $1 Billion.
Some math might help. $1,000,000,000 / 25 per fare = 40,000,000 passengers.
Yes, 40 million more passengers.
Each 4 car Brightline train consist has 248 seats, let's round that up to 250 to make the math simplier.
More math follows. 40,000,000 passengers / 250 seats per train = 160,000 additional trains to offset that additional $1 Billion expense. At 10 full trains per day, that 16,000 additional trains, or 10 trains a day for almost 44 years. Even more math follows. 16,000 trains / 365 days in a year = 43.8 years.

Will Brightline fill every additional train to capacity? Will Brightline be able to run an additional 10 trains a day over what they have planned to run? Will Brightline be able to zero additional costs for running additional trains? Of course not. I have been suggesting a best case scenario for a 250 seat train at $25 per seat.

An additional $Billion is a lot of money, a lot of trains, a lot of passengers, a lot of everything.

We could also reduce the number of trains by increasing the capacity of the trains. We could reduce the number of years and/or the number of trains simply by adjusting the fares to a higher price. At some point, fares become too high and trains become too long. Likewise, we could reduce the fares and prolong the time required to pay off that additional $Billion. How long do you think investors will be willing to wait for pay out?

There's just two honest ways for private enterprise to increase profits, (1) get higher prices for your product or service and (2) lower costs to provide your product or service. Companies that do not maximize profits over time could go broke or be bought out by its competitors. In either case, that company dies.

But this idea that an additional $Billion can be swept under a rug and is not a problem is wrong.

Remember Brightline plans to add more cars to each train up to ( 10 ? ) The maintenance facility at the airport is built to be added onto when the need arises. That will really mess up your math ? Of course maybe Sun rail will run shuttles and leave Tampa to Brightline ? Make the different costs payable by Sun Rail and ultimately Fl DOT. Do not let DOT do a slow construction speed but have DOT contract Brightline to build it,.

Orange County could probably make it worthwhile for Brightline to pick the 528 route (even at higher cost) by offering to let Brightline have air rights above OCCC's parking lots and the right to build the tallest skyscrapers there that the FAA will allow, and possibly by augmenting it with additional parcels of land purchased by Orlando/Orange County via eminent domain, sold to Brightline "at cost", then massively upzoned.

Brightline is a real estate company, and most of its proposed Orlando locations are sorely lacking from that perspective. However... if Brightline were allowed to buy air rights for a pittance and build a few hundred-story office towers nearby, that ALONE would probably give them enough reason to jump at the offer.

Think about it... if you were a large corporation looking for prime office space in Orlando, a few floors of a building within walking distance of a Brightline station would be a no-brainer slam-dunk over out-of-the-way downtown Orlando, if only because the OCCC location would have convenient single-seat rail connectivity to Florida's other big cities (not to mention, direct access to both I-4 and 528, and almost-direct access to the Turnpike after the interchange at 528/441 gets totally rebuilt with new direct ramps between them a few years from now).

I'm not entirely sure just how much land Orange County would have to forcibly take via eminent domain and sell to Brightline at pre-upzoning cost (in addition to any air development rights above the parking lots) to make up for a billion dollar difference... but given the market value of a single supertall skyscraper in downtown Miami, I'm pretty sure it's do-able (at least, if Brightline were allowed to go all the way up to 100+ stories there).

It would obviously raise Brightline's up-front capital cost... but would effectively give them a license to print money in perpetuity thereafter as the area became Orlando's most desirable location for premium office space.

Taking people's property by eminent domain for the benefit of a private company, and providing them with preferential zoning, that is illegal and unethical and just wrong.