• Brightline Orlando (MCO) and Disney Extension - PHASE 2

  • This is a forum for all operations, both current and planned, of Brightline, formerly All Aboard Florida and Virgin Trains USA:
    Websites: Current Brightline
    Virgin USA
    Virgin UK
This is a forum for all operations, both current and planned, of Brightline, formerly All Aboard Florida and Virgin Trains USA:
Websites: Current Brightline
Virgin USA
Virgin UK

Moderator: CRail

  by bostontrainguy
 
Some local news:

https://www.disneyfoodblog.com/2021/07/ ... efinitely/
Over the past few months, we’ve taken a look at one BIG milestone the train hit, a peek at its progress from the sky, and even news about Universal plan to push for an airport train connection. Recently, we got a big update as to where the plans for this train from the airport to Disney World stand.

Previously, we shared that Brightline was considering various routes from the airport to the Disney World station. At the time, 2 main routes appeared to be under consideration. One route would piggyback on State Road 417 through Hunters Creek. The other would go along State Road 528 to International Drive.

The 417 route, which is the one Brightline prefers, has been estimated to cost $1.03 billion. The SR 528 route, on the other hand, was previously estimated to cost $2.1 billion. This SR 528 route would go along I-Drive, a massive area with tourist attractions.

In April we shared that Universal Orlando Resort, the I-Drive business chamber of commerce, and more may push for this route that goes to I-Drive. Now, we’ve got an update as to what’s going on with the potential routes Brightline has been considering.
  by eolesen
 
Interesting... I'm normally not a fan of NIMBY intervention but in this case it's stopping Disney from pulling a fast one that's ultimately not in the best interests of the railroad or future viability and ridership.

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  by Pensyfan19
 
Some more, potentially conflicting local news...

https://www.wesh.com/article/brightline ... l/37081637
ORLANDO, Fla. —
The planned Brightline expansion between Orlando International Airport and Tampa has been approved.

The Central Florida Expressway Authority Board cleared the way for Brightline to study a high-speed rail alignment along this corridor.

The new 17-mile-long path would connect the Brightline station at MCO to the I-4 corridor.
  by BandA
 
(I read part of the report). No way brightline is going to pay $2B when they can pay $1B. Unless the southern route has unacceptable impacts, (wetlands, property impairments, etc) they should be allowed to go ahead, If other parties want the northern route and want to kick in the extra $1B then maybe.
  by electricron
 
west point wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 7:36 pm How long will each route take for trains? Southern route appears slower ?
I do not think the link discussed train operations much, it discussed mostly routing and construction costs.
Neve-the-less, the difference in distances between the two routes was around a tenth of a mile. I would suggest trains making an extra station stop at Orange County Convention Center would slow the trains more on the way to Disney World.
At 60 mph average speed, a tenth of a mile is 6 seconds, at 30 mph a tenth of a mile is 12 seconds, at 15 mph a tenth of a mile is 30 seconds. I do not think a train slowing down for a station stop with many passengers alighting and boarding will take lass than a minute to do, more likely two minutes would be lost at such a stop vs not stopping at all at an intermediate station.
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  by west point
 
I was looking more of time saved for trains that did not stop. Airport to Tampa non stops, one stop at Disney , and all stops as well.
  by eolesen
 
I'd think that a station by the convention. center would be a lot more useful for people throughout the Orlando area inclined to catch a train to Tampa. It's at least a 15 mile backtrack on a 80 mile trip to go to the airport.

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  by electricron
 
eolesen wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 8:48 pm I'd think that a station by the convention. center would be a lot more useful for people throughout the Orlando area inclined to catch a train to Tampa. It's at least a 15 mile backtrack on a 80 mile trip to go to the airport.
Will you be willing to pay twice the fare for the train ticket to Tampa from Orlando's airport because it will cost the train operator Brightline twice as much to redirect via the convention center. Twice as much! So a $25 fare could turns into a $50 fare to balance the books. :(
How many families of four on vacation are going to spend an additional $100 for a 17 miles long train ride to Disney World from the airport? And another $100 for the return trip to the airport?

Not suggesting it will be twice as much, but that it could be twice as much. Were talking about the convention center route costing $2 Billion to build vs $1 Billion to build with the more direct route.
How many $25 fares will it take to pay off that additional $1 Billion.
Some math might help. $1,000,000,000 / 25 per fare = 40,000,000 passengers.
Yes, 40 million more passengers.
Each 4 car Brightline train consist has 248 seats, let's round that up to 250 to make the math simplier.
More math follows. 40,000,000 passengers / 250 seats per train = 160,000 additional trains to offset that additional $1 Billion expense. At 10 full trains per day, that 16,000 additional trains, or 10 trains a day for almost 44 years. Even more math follows. 16,000 trains / 365 days in a year = 43.8 years.

Will Brightline fill every additional train to capacity? Will Brightline be able to run an additional 10 trains a day over what they have planned to run? Will Brightline be able to zero additional costs for running additional trains? Of course not. I have been suggesting a best case scenario for a 250 seat train at $25 per seat.

An additional $Billion is a lot of money, a lot of trains, a lot of passengers, a lot of everything.

We could also reduce the number of trains by increasing the capacity of the trains. We could reduce the number of years and/or the number of trains simply by adjusting the fares to a higher price. At some point, fares become too high and trains become too long. Likewise, we could reduce the fares and prolong the time required to pay off that additional $Billion. How long do you think investors will be willing to wait for pay out?

There's just two honest ways for private enterprise to increase profits, (1) get higher prices for your product or service and (2) lower costs to provide your product or service. Companies that do not maximize profits over time could go broke or be bought out by its competitors. In either case, that company dies.

But this idea that an additional $Billion can be swept under a rug and is not a problem is wrong.
  by west point
 
Remember Brightline plans to add more cars to each train up to ( 10 ? ) The maintenance facility at the airport is built to be added onto when the need arises. That will really mess up your math ? Of course maybe Sun rail will run shuttles and leave Tampa to Brightline ? Make the different costs payable by Sun Rail and ultimately Fl DOT. Do not let DOT do a slow construction speed but have DOT contract Brightline to build it,.
  by markhb
 
BandA wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 6:14 pm (I read part of the report). No way brightline is going to pay $2B when they can pay $1B. Unless the southern route has unacceptable impacts, (wetlands, property impairments, etc) they should be allowed to go ahead, If other parties want the northern route and want to kick in the extra $1B then maybe.
I read some of it. Universal and the I-Drive CoC came up with c. $200 million more. The $2 billion estimate came from the Central Florida Expressway Authority's estimate, and it's relevant (at least to me) that the latter agency is the one that would collect any lease payments, etc. from the SR 417 route. I suspect the real number would be somewhere in between, but there's an awful lot of "somewhere" between those numbers.