What does the future hold for the routes 59, 66 and 75 trackless trolleys? SEPTA has placed in service 22 new electric 40 foot buses from Proterra Catalyst, with 3 more to join shortly, see https://www.inquirer.com/news/electric- ... 90610.html . Ten more are on order for 2021 for Midvale / North Philadelphia. Also see, https://whyy.org/articles/septa-goes-el ... ery-buses/ and https://www.phillyvoice.com/septa-25-el ... lly-route/ . The electric buses will be operating on Southern District / South Philadelphia routes 29 (Tasker / Morris) and 79 Snyder), both previously trackless trolley routes. The suspension of trackless trolley service on both routes was in 2003. The present 38 trackless trolleys on routes 59, 66 and 75 New Flyer models purchased in 2007 / 2008. Will the new electric bus downside (reliability, cost [$1,000,000 each], battery charging capacity) ensure the trackless trolley future? Will there be replacements for the New Flyer’s in the 2027 time period? Could the electric buses also take over the current trolley routes (10, 11, 13, 15, 34, 36, 101, 102)?
Some rather naïve musings (as opposed to direct knowledge):
- It's probably too early to make specific predictions. From SEPTA's viewpoint the Proterras are experimental so I wouldn't expect a firm thumbs up/down till they've been in service for a few seasons. As the stories note, they need to get some real-world, real-weather operations under their belts. That said, it seems that absent some chemical or physical roadblock, battery technology will continue to improve gradually for the foreseeable future. There may not be a huge breakthrough but incremental advances keep making storage more and more viable. E.g. I didn't expect to see serious electric car production in my lifetime, but we're already turning that corner.
- Assuming those improvements continue, my personal guess is that traditional wired trolleybuses may be on their way out in many but not all situations. That assumes of course the costs of charger infrastructure are at least competitive with traditional overhead, a calculation I'll leave to people far more qualified than I am. In fact, if transit agencies continue to move away from fossil fuels I can see battery buses possibly replacing diesel and hybrid vehicles more widely. That might significantly blur the "buses here, trackless trolleys there" dichotomy that currently exists, a bit like how phones, tablets, and other computing devices are now no longer siloed.
- Perhaps it's my prejudice towards rail, but I'm less convinced that battery-powered buses will replace light-rail operations, especially where the routes are grade-separated. From an infrastructure standpoint blacktop is probably cheaper than steel rails. OTOH steel wheels on steel rails have a lot less friction which allows greater acceleration and faster overall travel. In addition I'm not sure that any system regularly MU's trolleybuses which limits their ability to carry large numbers of passengers. There's also the psychological factor that (at least anecdotally) indicates riders have a preference for rail vehicles over buses or bus-like transport where routes overlap or co-run. Those factors would argue in favor of retaining the NHSL and 101/102 routes as classic rail operations. However I'm not willing to make any predictions regarding the subway-surface routes that are more surface than subway.
Again, these are nothing but opinions based only on my reading of numerous articles in both the popular and industry press rather than any advanced analysis.
