he Bayonne Bridge will either be replaced or fall into the water sometime in the next 20 years. (also, the bridge is too low for many modern ships).
The NYC2030 plan already calls for the restoration of service to the North Shore Line.
The currently under construction ARC tunnel will not relieve the trans-Hudson congestion in the long term; much of that capacity is spoken for with long term NJ Transit expansion, such as the aforementioned service to Scranton, as well as another line into Middlesex County and service restoration to West Trenton and service restoration to Easton, Pennsylvania.
On a twenty to thirty year time frame, Jersey City has some 15,000+ planned housing units, and Harrison has several thousand more. Should Newark ever experience an urban renaissance, that too will add commuters to both the NE Corridor and to the PATH. And of course the area around Journal Square, should redevelopment prove fruitful, has the potential add thousands of high density residences.
In addition, the northern expansion of the HBLR will deposit many commuters at PATH stations; commuters diverted away from Hoboken when ARC opens will likely be replaced by HBLR riders.
Compounding this is the finite amount of land currently connected to the city subway system. The region is still growing, and growing rapidly. Gentrified neighborhoods are pushing workforce labor further from the city core. There will need to be more housing available overall and more variety of housing in terms of cost.
The short point is: the capacity demand will be there for a third subway tunnel between Hudson County and Manhattan, which is not being addressed by connecting the PATH to the 6 train.
The current cost of the Second Avenue subway is estimated at around $17B for 8.5 miles. No doubt connecting Hanover Square to Staten, about 10 miles, would have a base price starting at $20B+ but that doesn't mean it shouldn't be done. Modern cities around the world are building entire new subway systems all of the time. Certainly much of that money would need to come from the federal government-- but a project with 4 Senators backing it has a better shot of receiving funding than a single state with only 2 (Ironically, it would cover fewer house Districts, NJ13, NY13, and NY8).
The NYC2030 plan already calls for the restoration of service to the North Shore Line.
The currently under construction ARC tunnel will not relieve the trans-Hudson congestion in the long term; much of that capacity is spoken for with long term NJ Transit expansion, such as the aforementioned service to Scranton, as well as another line into Middlesex County and service restoration to West Trenton and service restoration to Easton, Pennsylvania.
On a twenty to thirty year time frame, Jersey City has some 15,000+ planned housing units, and Harrison has several thousand more. Should Newark ever experience an urban renaissance, that too will add commuters to both the NE Corridor and to the PATH. And of course the area around Journal Square, should redevelopment prove fruitful, has the potential add thousands of high density residences.
In addition, the northern expansion of the HBLR will deposit many commuters at PATH stations; commuters diverted away from Hoboken when ARC opens will likely be replaced by HBLR riders.
Compounding this is the finite amount of land currently connected to the city subway system. The region is still growing, and growing rapidly. Gentrified neighborhoods are pushing workforce labor further from the city core. There will need to be more housing available overall and more variety of housing in terms of cost.
The short point is: the capacity demand will be there for a third subway tunnel between Hudson County and Manhattan, which is not being addressed by connecting the PATH to the 6 train.
The current cost of the Second Avenue subway is estimated at around $17B for 8.5 miles. No doubt connecting Hanover Square to Staten, about 10 miles, would have a base price starting at $20B+ but that doesn't mean it shouldn't be done. Modern cities around the world are building entire new subway systems all of the time. Certainly much of that money would need to come from the federal government-- but a project with 4 Senators backing it has a better shot of receiving funding than a single state with only 2 (Ironically, it would cover fewer house Districts, NJ13, NY13, and NY8).
